Company researchTSE GROWTH · 4058 · FY end DEC

May 18, 2026

Toyokumo, Inc.

Toyokumo provides three types of cloud software for Japanese small and medium-sized businesses: disaster safety confirmation, kintone app integration and internal information sharing. The questions are whether NotePM’s acquisition will generate profit commensurate with its goodwill burden, and how ¥4.4bn of cash will be used and returned to shareholders.

Company

Toyokumo, Inc.

トヨクモ株式会社

Provides cloud software for employee safety confirmation, kintone integration and internal information sharing at small and medium-sized businesses.

Last Close: ¥1,943; May 15, 2026 · −49% from Aug-25 peak · +51% off Aug-24 trough
Market Cap / enterprise value (EV): ¥21bn / ¥17bn EV; net cash ¥4.4bn (21% of cap) · zero interest-bearing debt
EV / OP · forward: 8.8x; vs JP SaaS-microcap median ~12x est. · strict pass · FCF yield 9.1%
ROCE · trailing: 44%; FY12/23–FY12/25 trend: 45% · 44% · 44% — steady mid-40s through three-pillar consolidation
OP margin · group: 33% · grp; FY12/26 guide 32.8% · 1Q FY12/26 actual 43.2% · ad spend tracking below guide
Shares & Float: 10.9M sh · ~30% float; treasury 1.1% · ¥300M buyback 66% complete by yen (¥197.8M of ¥300M, 108.7k shares)

01 · REGIME

What moved the share price over the past two years?

Toyokumo is a SaaS company that develops multiple cloud software for small and medium-sized enterprises. The stock price over the past two years reflects how the market has reevaluated the company's three businesses: safety confirmation, kintone collaboration, and NotePM. It was bought from ¥1,287 in August 2024 to ¥3,780 in August 2025, and after that, there was a major adjustment until spring 2026, and some of it was revised in the first quarter results on May 14th. Rather than just looking at stock prices, it is more accurate to read along with how business is going.

4058 and TOPIX · Past 24 months · Daily candle + volume

peak¥3,780 · 2025/8/19 Latest bottom price¥1,287 · 2024/8/5 feet¥1,943

Toyokumo・Nichiashi 60 day moving average TOPIX-linked ETF (1308.T, based on start date) Volume

01 · The rally Toyokumo was founded in 2010 as a Cybozu subsidiary, became independent through founder Yuji Yamamoto’s 2014 MBO, and listed on Mothers, now Growth, in 2020. Anpi Confirmation Service 2 provides employee safety confirmation for disaster response. Its second pillar, kintone integration, includes FormBridge, kViewer and kMailer, extending Cybozu’s no-code platform into external forms, public views, email and automated workflows. Cybozu remains the second-largest shareholder with 7.30%, or 800,000 shares, so the relationship also has an equity foundation. November 2023’s Toyokumo Cloud Connect, a majority-owned joint venture with Cybozu as minority shareholder, deepened collaboration and signaled preparation for further M&A. Free trials converting to paid use helped contracts reach 20,220 in Q1 FY26. Cross-selling across seven products raised ARPA to ¥21,329, up 9.9% YoY, while the kintone customer base also provided a channel for acquired products. The January 2025 Project Mode acquisition added NotePM knowledge-management SaaS as a third pillar. The shares rose from ¥1,287 in August 2024, nearly doubled by spring 2025 as FY24 earnings were reassessed, then reached ¥3,780 on August 19. About 22x forward EV/EBIT implied that the distribution platform built over ten years, with strong recognition as a third-party integration provider and more than 15,000 paid contracts at its peak, would benefit NotePM and TCC immediately.

02 · The reversal The reversal began in autumn as FY25 results became clearer. On November 13, 2025 management raised sales guidance by about ¥200M and OP by ¥100M, a modest upgrade relative to expectations embedded at the August high. Investors saw integration benefits being absorbed gradually rather than a decisive margin step-up. FY25 results on February 13, 2026 showed consolidated sales of ¥4,858M (+54.4%) and OP of ¥1,605M. Project Mode consolidation added 16ppt to growth; parent-only sales growth of 38.8% better indicated the existing business’s momentum. The roughly 33% OP margin combined a subscription gross margin near 95%, annual Project Mode goodwill amortization of ¥146M through FY31, and discretionary advertising. Advertising had the greatest effect on the shares: FY25 spending was ¥1,278M, including ¥1,248M at Toyokumo itself for television and web advertising. This supported kintone-related customer access and brand recognition rather than NotePM search advertising. FY26 guidance of ¥5,800M sales and ¥1,900M OP assumed additional advertising pressure on margins. The same day, management authorized its third buyback, ¥300M and 150,000 shares, the largest by value after ¥200M and 100,000 shares in February 2025 and a smaller September 2022 program. January and February monthly releases appeared to indicate slowing growth, and the price fell to ¥1,943 by mid-May, about 49% below August’s high.

03 · Current position Two releases shortly before publication could change the assessment. April 2026 monthly sales growth of 33.2% YoY suggested reacceleration rather than the slowdown inferred earlier in the year. May 14 Q1 FY26 results showed sales of ¥1,389M (+29.0%), OP of ¥600M (+80.5%) and net profit of ¥401M (+82.9%). The 43.2% OP margin was about 10ppt above full-year guidance of 32.8%. Advertising fell 14.5% YoY to ¥248M, showing restraint in Q1 rather than the increase implied by guidance. Parent-only recurring metrics were ARR of ¥5,738M (+24.5%), churn of 0.81%, 20,220 paid contracts (+13.3%), ARPA of ¥21,329 (+9.9%) and a company-defined Rule of 40 score of 72.2. Guidance remained unchanged, and advertising’s usual H2 concentration may simply have made Q1 the quietest quarter. By April’s end, the February buyback was 66% complete by value: ¥197.8M of ¥300M and 108,700 of 150,000 shares. Over the next four quarters, watch whether advertising discipline is structural or reflects timing, how much NotePM contributes to consolidated profit, and whether management formalizes a policy for ¥4.4bn of cash against working capital needs of about ¥0.5bn, or keeps it as discretionary M&A funding.

02 · CONTENTION

Three questions dividing investor views

There are three points of contention that divide the current evaluation of

. Will the high profit margins continue? Will the acquisition of NotePM be profitable? How will the company use its large amount of cash?

Issue 01 · Sustainability of profit margin

Q1 Is the 43% operating profit margin for FY26 a further increase in profitability? Or is it just a temporary appearance due to the heavy emphasis on advertising expenses in the second half?

bullish On the bullish side, Q1 operating profit growth rate+80.5%is the sales growth rate+29.0%significantly exceeded the previous year, and advertising expenses alsoYoY −14.5%Emphasis will be placed on the points that have been suppressed. The operating profit margin relative to the increase in sales isIncremental OP approximately ¥268M ÷ Incremental sales approximately ¥312M = 86%This exceeded FY25. The number of paid contracts is+13.3%, sales per company are+9.9%Both the number of contracts and the unit price are increasing. Monthly news for April+33.2%This also supports the sales momentum. While the company kept its full-year plan unchanged in Q2 or Q3, full-year operating profit¥2.3bn or moreIf the expected pace of growth continues, it will be easy to conclude that the high profit margin in Q1 is not due to a lag in the timing of posting, but rather to an increase in profitability itself.

bearish On the bearish side, look at the seasonality of ad spending. FY25 will also focus heavily on the second half, and Q1 FY25 advertising expenses will be¥291M, 27% of sales, full year¥1,278M, which was 26% of sales. The FY26 plan may also include the assumption that advertising expenses of approximately ¥1.2bn per year will increase in the second half of the year in preparation for the disaster prevention season. The fact that the company did not change its full-year plan despite a strong Q1 is consistent with the view that spending will increase going forward. Second half operating profit margin26%Full-year operating profit has fallen below the company's plan.¥1.9bnIf it falls within the following range, it can be concluded that Q1 was a temporary increase due to the timing of recording expenses.

Issue 02 · Return on investment of NotePM

Does the acquisition of Project Mode generate profits that exceed the amortization of goodwill?

bullish The bullish side is due to Project Mode acquisition (acquisition price ¥1,330M, goodwill recorded amount ¥1,028M, 7-year amortization)Goodwill amortization of ¥146M in 2018Even with this burden, the consolidated operating profit margin will be lower in FY2533%, in FY26 plan32.8%Look at what maintains this. NotePM can be sold in the same way as the kintone linked series, making it easy to propose to the approximately 20,000 existing customers. TCC/PM sales including NotePM increased in each quarter of FY25 (¥117M→¥149M).NotePM ARR and TCC breakdown, or the operating profit margin by product in the FY26 interim financial results, it will be easier to confirm whether the acquisition is generating profits on a customer-by-customer basis.

bearish The bears see insufficient disclosure. Toyokumo reports its performance in a single segment, and even after the acquisition, it does not sufficiently show the profit margin by product or the number of subscribers for NotePM alone, making it difficult for investors to verify whether the company is recovering its acquisition funds. NotePM is an information sharing SaaS for domestic small and medium-sized enterprises that competes with Notion, esa, DocBase, etc. It is also possible that much of the advertising costs in FY25 were used not to acquire customers for NotePM, but to maintain the popularity of kintone's peripheral products. The high consolidated operating profit margin can be explained by the fact that existing businesses support the entire group. The acquisition itself may have little impact on profits on a customer-by-customer basis, or may even slightly lower profit margins. If the company maintains a consolidated profit margin of around 33% even in its FY26 financial results without disclosing information specific to NotePM, it can be interpreted that verification of investment recovery has been postponed.

Issue 03 · Cash policy

Are you prepared for the next M&A with cash on hand? Or is it surplus funds that can be returned to shareholders?

bullish On the bullish side, the required working capital is approximately ¥0.5bn.¥4.4bn cashhaveZero interest-bearing debtEmphasize certain points. In February 2026¥300Mannounced the acquisition of its own shares, and as of the end of April, it had purchased up to 66% of its own stock. Shareholder returns are stronger compared to ¥200M in February 2025 and the small acquisition in September 2022. The acquisition of Project Mode also demonstrated the company's willingness to use cash to increase the value of its business. From the share buyback, it can be seen that the company intends to return cash in excess of the amount needed to prepare for M&A to shareholders over time. FY26 interim or full year resultsSecond acquisition frameIf the company's net cash policy is clear, it will be easier to evaluate its capital policy.

bearish On the bearish side,¥300MThe acquisition limit is based on the market capitalization.Approximately 1.4%However, it is considered that the return is still small for a multi-period return policy. The company's capital allocation policy is also limited to the general explanation that “surplus capital will be used as appropriate for M&A and shareholder returns.” The founder, Yuji Yamamoto, through Nanobank Co., Ltd.Approximately 49%, and major strategic decisions are concentrated in top management. Holding a large amount of cash is consistent with the idea of leaving the next acquisition option open, so they are not necessarily conscious of the upper limit of their net cash. If there is no new acquisition quota, cash policy, or additional M&A in the FY26 financial results, it would be easy to see that the acquisition of ¥300M was a one-off, flexible decision and not the beginning of a capital policy. In that case, the opacity discount for the cache remains.

03 · CATALYST

Three points to note that affect capital efficiency

There are factors that can change the evaluation without increasing profits further. The key is disclosure and clarity of capital policy.

Highlight 01 · Disclosure

Breakdown of operating profit margin and NotePM ARR by product

Composition of group operating income. What investors can and cannot see

Consolidated operating income FY25

¥1,605M

Goodwill amortization (absorbed)

¥146M / year

Safety confirmation Operating profit margin

Not disclosed

kintone collaboration operating profit margin

Not disclosed

TCC + NotePM operating profit margin

Not disclosed

Single segment disclosure · Profit margin by product is currently not disclosed

Goodwill amortization in Project Mode until FY31¥146MTo be continued. Without product-specific margins, outside investors cannot recalculate the payback status of acquisitions on their own. In FY26 interim financial results(i) Operating profit margin by product line, (ii) NotePM ARR and number of contracts separated from TCCIf, the most controversial part becomes a confirmable number rather than a guess. The additional information needed is about one supplementary slide, which helps reduce the opacity discount.

execution burden

1 supplementary slide

Earliest confirmation time

FY26 interim financial results (August 2026)

Highlight 02 · Capital policy

Upper limit of net cash held and return policy based on calculation formula

Cash composition on balance sheet · End of FY25

Total cash etc.

¥4,407M

Working capital demand (estimate)

~¥500M

FY26 treasury stock buyback quota

¥300M

undocumented surplus

~¥3,500M

No upper limit announced · No formula · Structure that makes share buybacks easy to see as a flexible, one-shot decision

Net cache limit excluding disclosed M&A pipeline¥2.5bnIf it becomes clear that the excess amount will be used for share buybacks or special dividends based on a formula, the way cash will be viewed will change. This is because it makes it easier to include the funds in the model as room for returns over multiple periods, rather than simply as funds for acquisition options. There is almost no additional operational burden, and investors can easily model allocations for the next four quarters instead of speculating quarterly.No debt, cash equivalent to 21% of market capitalization, FCF yield of approximately 9%Toyokumo's balance sheet goes well with its formula-based policy.

execution burden

1 board resolution

Earliest confirmation time

FY26 interim or full year financial results

Highlight 03 · Disclosure

What does the return on investment in Project Mode look like 24 months after acquisition?

Project Mode Acquisition · What can be seen with disclosure

Acquisition price (January 2025)

¥1,330M

Goodwill balance End of FY25

¥881M

NotePM ARR (included in TCC/PM)

Not disclosed

Customer-related assets residual book value (Q1 FY26)

¥295M

There is no investment recovery page in the FY25 financial results · The growth strategy suggests that M&A will start in 2027

If the FY26 financial results documents (i) acquisition cost, (ii) accumulated goodwill amortization, (iii) remaining book value of customer-related assets, (iv) comparison of NotePM ARR and book value, and (v) concept of investment recovery viewed over multiple periods are organized on one page, there will be materials for evaluating not only the success or failure of Project Mode deals but also the next acquisition deal.Capital and business alliance with Mocula Corporation in April 2026has also been announced, and there is a possibility that it will be expanded to surrounding areas. Disclosure regarding the collection status of Project Mode not only provides an explanation of past projects, but also serves as a material for building trust in the next M&A.

execution burden

1 notes page

Earliest confirmation time

FY26 final financial results (February 2027)

04 · VALUATION

Stock price scenario for the next four quarters

Three internally consistent cases for the next four quarters. These are analytical ranges, illustrating how different combinations of results and disclosure could affect the shares; they are not forecasts.

bearish scenario

¥1,400 – ¥1,700

−28% to −12%

Incorporated multiple: Approximately 6–8x EV/EBIT (forecast basis)

The high profit margin in Q1 is only a temporary appearance due to advertising expenses being biased towards the second half.None of the three points of interest are realized.case.

Requirements

FY26 full-year operating profit exceeded company plan¥1,900MAround or below. Advertising expenses increased as planned in the second half, and Q1's expense discipline did not continue.
Monthly news for summer 2026+22%As a result, the growth pace of around +30% will collapse.
Even in the FY26 interim and full-year financial results, operating profit margin by product and NotePM ARR are not disclosed.
Neither a second share buyback nor a net cash policy is indicated.
Due to the impact of reducing brand defense advertising, the cancellation rate of the existing customer base for safety confirmation has decreased.1.0%rise above.

bearish range ¥1,400–¥1,700 means approximately 6-8x expected base EV/EBIT. Close to the lower end of the 7-10x range seen by domestic buyers going private. This level is mainly explained by the decline in the valuation multiple, and it is assumed that the market will continue to value the company's value as a combination of the three pillars.

neutral scenario

¥2,000 – ¥2,400

+3% to +24%

Incorporated multiple: Approximately 9–11x EV/EBIT (forecast basis)

Even with the new cost level, operating leverage remains;One point of focus in disclosure is realized.case.

Requirements

FY26 operating profit exceeds company plan¥1,900M(Example: ¥2,000–¥2,200M). Although advertising expenses will increase in the second half, profit will be supported by the cost discipline and high gross profit margin seen in Q1.
One of the three disclosure points will be realized. The most likely option is to disclose the operating profit margin by product in the FY26 interim financial results.
Summer monthly news+25–30%It changes within the range of.
The current acquisition quota will be used up from May to July, and the direction of the second quota resolution or return formula will be announced at the FY26 interim financial results.

bullish scenario

¥2,800 – ¥3,400

+44% to +75%

Incorporated multiple · Approximately 13–15x EV/EBIT (forecast basis)

Two of the three points of interest have been realizedHowever, it will continue to accelerate again until the summer. This is a case where cash policy moves from discretionary management to formula-based management.

Requirements

FY26 operating profit¥2,300MWe achieved the above (+20% compared to plan), and the profit margin of Q1 will be reproduced to some extent during the year.
Operating profit margin by product and NotePM ARR are disclosed, and focus point 01 is clearly realized.
The net cash policy and formula-based stock buyback rules will be clearly stated in the FY26 financial results.
Monthly news for summer 2026+33%This clearly exceeds the growth pace assumed in the FY26 plan.
The company will upwardly revise its full-year plan in Q2 or Q3, changing the view that plans will remain unchanged even in a strong Q1.

The upper limit of the bullish case ¥3,400 is placed below the August 2025 peak of ¥3,780. In order to return to the peak multiple, in addition to Point 03 (recovery disclosure of Project Mode acquisitions), it is necessary to confirm additional profit-enhancing acquisitions under the new framework. That's an option that goes one step further beyond the next four quarters.

Sum of Parts · Legacy + kintone collaboration

Safety confirmation service 2 + kintone collaboration series

FY25 total sales (disclosure)¥4,331M

Churn rate · Non-consolidated (Q1 FY26)0.81%

ARPA · Non-consolidated (Q1 FY26)¥21,329

Segment OP rate (estimate)~35%+ Estimated

Peer EV/sales (4475, 3922)~4–6x Estimated

Implied EV for neutral case:~¥190–22 billion. 4–5 times the FY26 run rate (~¥4.8bn)

Sum of parts · TCC/PM + peripheral businesses

Toyokumo Cloud Connect (joint venture with minority investment from Cybozu) + NotePM + AI camera surroundings

FY25 TCC/PM sales (total)¥524M

Project Mode goodwill (remaining)~¥881M

Neutral case segment EV (estimate)~¥30–5 billion

AI camera (partnered with Mocula) Value as a future option+¥0–1 billion estimate

SOTP total and current EV¥220–27 billion and ¥17bn

The market is currently focusing on an integrated evaluation of the three pillars.It is undervalued. If one point of interest is realized, SOTP can easily support a neutral scenario.

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This material is not investment advice.

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