Plus Alpha Consulting Co., Ltd.
Plus Alpha Consulting is a domestic HR SaaS company led by Talent Palette. Contracts with large companies have low churn and generate high returns on capital. Disclosure that helps investors assess growth prospects and capital policy could lead to a reassessment of its valuation.
Company
Plus Alpha Consulting Co., Ltd.
株式会社プラスアルファ・コンサルティング
Provides talent management and marketing SaaS using Japanese-language text analysis.
- Last Close
- ¥2,394
- May 19, 2026 · −5% from Aug-25 peak · +105% off Apr-25 trough
- Market Cap / enterprise value (EV)
- ¥101.5bn / ¥86.9bn EV
- net cash ¥14.56bn (14% of cap) · payout target raised to 40%
- EV / OP · forward
- 14.7x
- trailing 13.1x EV/EBITDA · vs Aug-25 peak ~12.3x fwd
- ROCE · trailing
- 46% · 3yr stable
- FY09/23 46% → FY09/24 41% → FY09/25 46% · top of universe
- OP Margin · group
- 45% · seg-wtd
- reported 37.3% · 7.4pp corporate-overhead bridge · 1H FY09/26 actual 39.5%
- Shares & Float
- 42.4M sh · ~50% float
- founder bloc ~33% · Oasis Mgmt 16.29% · avg daily turnover ~¥598M
What moved the share price over the past two years?
stock price rose 114% in 4 months from ¥1,170 on April 7, 2025 to ¥2,510 on August 18 of the same year. This move was based on the expectation that Talent Palette would expand to large companies and that profits would increase more than sales growth. Thereafter, the stock price did not fall significantly, and even after three quarters of financial results, ¥1.15bn of goodwill impairment, the company's growth forecast slowing, and the entry of activist investors, the stock price remained within the range of ¥2,000 to ¥2,500. In May 2026, the company revised its shareholder return policy.
01 · The rally Plus Alpha Consulting analyzes Japanese business data, including employee surveys, customer feedback and call-center histories, and presents it in a form managers can use without specialist knowledge. Talent Palette has gained adoption among major listed companies. HR solutions, including Talent Palette, Yorisol, R-Shift and R-Kintai, had 2,171 contracts at the end of Q1 FY9/26. Companies with more than 1,000 employees accounted for 40% of contracts and 73% of Talent Palette MRR. Its proprietary Waters language engine has handled Japanese named entities for 17 years, while internal consultants turn customer requests into product features. Management calls this feedback, product development and resale process the PAC cycle. HR solutions maintained a three-year sales CAGR above 30% while margins increased. Existing-contract pricing and mix lifted Q1 FY9/26 Talent Palette ARPU to ¥468,000, up 11.3%, helped by revisions begun in Q3 FY24 and completed in April 2025, options and upgrades. Targeting large customers cut Q1 SG&A 15.9% YoY and marketing costs about 34%. Channel expansion began with Mynavi TalentBase on October 1, 2025. The shares reached a 24-month low of ¥1,170 on April 7, amid growth-stock weakness and limited Q1 contributions from acquired Grow Up and Attack. H1 FY9/25 OP growth of 28.8% supported recovery; on August 13 management raised FY9/25 OP guidance from ¥5,600M to ¥6,100M. The price reached ¥2,510 on August 18, about 12.3x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT based on guidance, returning to the highest valuation among JII’s covered names within four months.
02 · Adjustment from the highs On November 12, 2025, one release carried three messages. FY9/25 OP guidance rose again from ¥6,100M to ¥6,378M as marketing costs continued falling. Impairments totaled ¥1,154M, including ¥1,092M for Grow Up, acquired in 2022 and operating Kimisuka new-graduate recruiting, and ¥61M for Attack recruitment BPO, acquired in 2024. Both had underperformed acquisition plans, and all remaining goodwill was written off. Management also authorized cancellation on November 28 of all 472,250 treasury shares, or 1.10% before cancellation. November 14 results showed sales of ¥17,084M (+22.8%), OP of ¥6,378M (+40.8%), a reported consolidated OP margin of 37.3% and segment-weighted margin of 44.7%. FY9/26 guidance was ¥19,500M sales (+14.1%), ¥7,500M OP (+17.6%) and a 38.5% margin. The shares barely reacted the next trading day despite slower OP growth: investors treated impairments as a one-off cleanup of acquisitions, alongside cancellation and a dividend increase from ¥29 to ¥38. February 13, 2026 Q1 results confirmed that H2’s margin improvement carried into the new year, with sales of ¥4,439M (+14.0%), OP of ¥1,676M (+49.5%) and margin of 37.8%, versus 28.8% a year earlier.
03 · Current position Two developments changed the discussion in late April and early May 2026. Oasis disclosed a stake rising from 8.02% on April 23 to 10.52% on April 27 and 10.62% on May 1, seeking greater returns, board effectiveness and capital allocation engagement. Its filings envisaged continued proposals over twelve months and acquisition of another 5%. The June 24 amendment showed 16.29%, making Oasis the largest shareholder. H1 results on May 13 showed sales of ¥9,341M (+14.2%), OP of ¥3,692M (+32.2%) and net profit of ¥2,518M (+36.0%). Management raised its payout target from 30% to 40%, following August 2025’s increase from 20% to 30%, and introduced an 8% DOE floor. FY9/26 DPS guidance rose from ¥38 to ¥50, 72% above the prior ¥29. H1 delivered 49.2% of full-year OP guidance and a 39.5% margin, 1ppt above the 38.5% target. Activist-backed returns have partly taken hold, but a 40% payout against ¥5,200M guided net profit implies roughly ¥2,120M (¥50 times 42,390,000 shares), only about 2.1% of market value, alongside ¥14.56bn net cash equal to 14.4% of market value. Watch whether H2 margins hold at least 38%, suggesting scope for an upgrade; whether Mynavi TalentBase OEM gains a separate revenue disclosure demonstrating the partner channel; and whether November’s results pair the 40% payout with recurring buybacks.
Three questions dividing investor views
Based on's most recent quarterly financial results and the IR briefing on May 13th, there are three points at issue. Are the company's forecasts conservative? Will sales partnerships become a second source of growth? Will shareholder returns further expand?
What you can do to increase capital efficiency
List three evaluation materials related todisclosure and capital policy. In either case, the evaluation can be changed to without waiting for profits to increase.
Three scenarios for the next four quarters
Bear, base and bull cases for the next four quarters combine possible results and disclosures. They do not predict a single future outcome.
- Q3 FY9/26 operating profit margin35%As the company's operating profit margin falls below the company's plan and the burden of H2 expenses becomes heavier, the full-year operating profit margin will come in at 38.5%, which was the company's plan.
- Talent Palette's net increase in customer numbers has slowed down to less than 100 compared to the same period last year, and the ARPU growth rate has also fallen below +5%.
- The number of visualization engine customers will fall below 700, and the segment's contribution to operating income will turn negative.
- The dividend payout ratio target of 40% was maintained in FY9/26 results, there was no additional share buyback, and net cash¥16bnBreak through.
- OEM sales are not disclosed separately, and it is not possible to confirm how much sales through partners actually contribute to sales.
bearish scenario is equivalent to approximately 9-10 times EV/EBIT for the next 12 months of FY26. While this is well below the valuation level of SaaS's peers in Japan, as a business with a ROCE of 46%, it still exceeds the EV/EBIT of 7 to 10 times, which is the current trend when taking similar companies private in Japan. Even if Talent Palette's profit margin continues to improve, if the market's valuation multiple remains low, it will remain at this level.
- Q3 FY9/26 operating profit margin≥37%・Sales growth rate ≥13%, FY9/26 full year operating profit≥¥7,800M(planned +4%).
- Net increase in the number of Talent Palette customers by over 150 compared to the same period last year (Enterprise + Mynavi OEM contributions).
- Either individual disclosure of Mynavi OEM sales or a resolution to repurchase shares in the FY9/26 financial results.
- The ARPU breakdown will be disclosed quarterly at the Q3 or Q4 briefing.
- Q3 FY9/26 operating profit margin≥40%・Sales growth rate ≥14%, FY9/26 full year operating profit≥¥8,200M(planned +9%), upward revision announced.
- Talent Palette ARPU growth rate YoY+10% or moreThe net increase in customer numbers accelerated to more than 250 compared to the same period last year.
- Mynavi OEM sales¥150〜300MAs of FY9/27, it will be disclosed separately at the level¥500M superIndicates a situation in which sales can be expected.
- In the FY9/26 financial results, we decided to repurchase our own shares (3% to 5% of market capitalization) and set a dividend payout ratio of 40%.
- The capital allocation policy based on dialogue with Oasis Management has been clearly stated in the IR materials, and the founding family shareholders also support this policy.
bull case is ¥3,800, which is the level when the next 12 months EV/EBIT is revalued to ~ 15 to 18 times . This is consistent with the valuation range of mid-sized US HR-SaaS companies (Paycom, Paylocity), and will surpass the level at which two domestic VOC/CDP companies have fallen to ~9x next 12-month EV/EBIT by mid-2026. A higher rating will require overseas expansion or a structural recovery of marketing solutions. However, since Waters' competitive advantage of Japanese NLP cannot be directly exported overseas, it is difficult to confirm this in the next four quarters.
This material is not investment advice.
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