Company research

Company researchTSE GROWTH · 4377 · FY end DEC

ONE CAREER Inc.

One Career’s new-graduate recruitment platform is used by two in three graduating job seekers and has accumulated 700,000 accounts of selection experiences, a database competitors cannot readily reproduce. The question is whether its founder, who owns 57%, reinvests cash from a business earning 38% ROCE or directs it to shareholder returns.

Company

ONE CAREER Inc.

株式会社ワンキャリア

A recruitment platform built on students’ accounts of interviews and selection processes, serving new graduates and career changers.

Last Close
¥1,947
May 25, 2026 · −33% from Aug-25 peak · +106% off Aug-24 trough
Market Cap / enterprise value (EV)
¥36bn / ¥29bn EV
net cash ¥6.6bn (18% of market cap) · zero interest-bearing debt of significance
EV / OP · forward
10.9x
vs Japanese recruitment-platform peer median ~13.7x trailing · ONE CAREER trailing 15.2x EV/TTM EBITDA sits above the median, forward 10.9x is below it because OP is guided to grow 41% this fiscal year
ROCE · trailing
38% · FY12/25
ROE trend FY12/20–FY12/25: 81% (post-IPO base) · 27 · 22 · 26 · 26 · 31 — recurring 26–31% range
OP margin · group
28.1% · FY12/25
1Q FY12/26 actual 30.1% (+8.0pt YoY) · FY12/26 guide implies ~28.6%
Shares & Float
18.4M sh · ~33% float
founder-CEO Naoyuki Miyashita holds 40.5% direct + 16.7% via MTM = 57.2% combined · COO Nagasawa 4.75% · Asset Management One 4.94%
01 · Rising phase

What moved the share price over the past two years?

One Career operates a service where new graduate job hunters can read other students' experiences for free in exchange for posting their own interview experiences. Two out of every three job hunters sign up, and companies pay a monthly fee to post job openings to this student base and contact candidates directly. The database of screening testimonials is the company's core asset and is difficult to replace with other services.

4377 and TOPIX · Past 24 months · Daily candle + volume
high price¥2,892 · 2025-08-26 low price¥943 · 2024-08-05 Currently¥1,947
One carrier/daily 60 day moving average TOPIX rebase (1308.T) Volume

01 · The rally One Career listed on Mothers in October 2021 and moved to Growth in April 2022, reporting one Career Data Platform segment. Its core asset is a database of selection experiences built since 2015. Students contribute interview questions, interviewers and process duration, and can read others’ accounts free. More than 700,000 entries provide first-hand information on Japanese company recruiting. Companies pay monthly to list jobs and message students. Unique information brings students back; each year’s additions make the database harder to replicate. About two in three new graduates use it, and cumulative corporate customers reached 6,858 at Q1 FY26, up 47%. Revenue comes from listings, scouting, sponsored articles, career events and success-based recruiting, alongside a small career-change service using graduates as future customers. Adding a company costs little because data collection and systems are largely fixed costs. FY25 sales were ¥7.58bn (+40.3%) and OP ¥2.13bn (+64.2%), with margin rising from 6.1% five years earlier to 28.1%. Domestic small-cap AI interest and March 16, 2025’s three-for-one split supported the shares, which reached ¥2,892 on August 26.

02 · The reversal August’s high coincided with the first acquisition announcement. On August 21, 2025, One Career announced additional purchases of Lightrose, operator of CAMPUS REACH, raising ownership from 17.8% to 100%; the shares reached ¥2,892 five days later. Alongside strong growth, investors priced in possible AI use of the experience database and an AI-software valuation. Buying weakened in autumn. Monthly business-environment FAQs began then, showing recognition of the need to explain the business to individual and overseas investors between results releases. November 14’s Q3 results brought the first annual dividend increase, from ¥14 to ¥21, and a payout target increase from 20% to 30%. The shares still drifted down as the summer premium across domestic small-cap AI faded. OP grew sharply in February 12, 2026 FY25 results, by which time the price was well below the high.

03 · Current position February, March and May 2026 disclosures changed the focus. February 12’s first consolidated full-year results showed ¥7.58bn sales (+40.3%), ¥2.13bn OP (+64.2%) and ¥1.5bn net profit (+62.5%). FY26 guidance was ¥10.5bn sales (+38.6%), ¥3bn OP (+41.0%) and ¥34 DPS, consistent with the roughly 30% payout target first stated three months earlier. February 24’s new executive structure promoted CFO Tomoaki Kimura to director and executive officer to accelerate M&A. On March 26, management announced acquisitions of Zero One Brain and Kids Corporation. Kids would become an indirect subsidiary at about 5x adjusted EBITDA, with a network of roughly 5,000 schools, ¥2.6bn standalone sales and ¥0.28bn OP; consolidation begins in Q3 FY26. May 14’s first consolidated Q1 showed ¥2.21bn sales (+47.2%), ¥0.66bn OP (+100.8%) and a 30.1% margin, achieving 21.0% of sales guidance and 22.1% of OP guidance. The shares closed at ¥1,947 on Monday, May 25, 33% below August 2025’s high and 106% above August 2024’s low. Watch whether OP exceeds guidance, whether Kids adds profit or lowers consolidated margins, and whether management starts disclosing profitability by business and acquisition.

02 · Issue

Three questions dividing investor views

Based on

's most recent quarterly financial results and IR briefing materials, we will summarize three issues that should be confirmed in the future.

Issue 01 · Progress in the first quarter
Q1 In FY26, sales reached 21.0% of the full-year forecast and operating profit of 22.1%. Is this a sign that the full-year forecast will be exceeded, or is it just a seasonal factor?
BULL Bulls believe that Q1 operating profit margin30.1%It is noted that the cost of sales ratio also decreased from 13.4% in the same period of the previous year to 11.1%. For the new graduate platform, expenses do not increase easily even when sales increase, and we believe that profitability has improved due to scale expansion rather than a temporary decrease in expenses.This view will hold true if the 1H operating profit margin reaches 28% or more at the end of Q2 FY26 and the full-year operating profit progresses at a pace higher than ¥3,200M.In the end, it exceeded the company's forecast by about 7%, confirming that the decline in the expense ratio was not due to a lag in the timing of recording, but rather a continuous improvement.
BEAR Bearish critics point out that monthly sales may be biased toward Q1 due to the timing of new graduate recruitment, and that quarterly sales for each product are not disclosed. The low cost of sales ratio in Q1 may be due to post-acquisition integration costs being recorded in a later quarter.This view will hold true if the 1H operating profit margin at the end of Q2 FY26 is within ±1.0pt of ~28.6% calculated backwards from the company's FY26 forecast, and the upward revision to the full-year forecast remains below 3%.
Issue 02 · Kids Corporation
Will Kids Corporation's sales network of 5,000 schools be the foundation for growth over the next 10 years? Or will the consolidated profit margin be lowered and the original growth of the new graduate business obscured?
BULL Bulls believe that by using Kids Corporation's network, the company can enter the high school recruitment market earlier than its competitors. Through our sales network of 5,000 schools, we can directly sell to companies that single carriers could not do business with before.Q4 If Kids Corporation's sales are disclosed separately in the FY26 or FY27 1H financial results briefing materials, and the year-on-year growth rate is accelerating, this view would hold true.Within 12 months of the start of consolidation, companies that newly use OneCareer's new graduate platformMore than 50 companiesThis fact also serves as a basis for confirming the results of mutual sales.
BEAR Bearish critics point out that Kids Corporation's standalone operating profit margin is around 11%, well below the more than 30% for new graduate platforms. Even if the integration goes smoothly and the company is able to maintain its own profit, the consolidated operating profit margin will decline for at least 18 months.Kids Corporation's contribution to FY27 operating profitLess than ¥150M(¥279M for the fiscal year ending March 2025 on a non-consolidated basis) or the FY27 consolidated operating profit marginbelow 27%(28.1% in FY25), this view holds true.
Issue 03 · Positioning of AI
Will the database of selection experience stories continue to be the first place students visit even in the age of AI?
BULL Bullists believe that it will be difficult for an external AI service to reproduce the more than 700,000 selection experiences confirmed by students themselves in a short period of time. Gathering the same information would require years of building a student base of similar size. One Career itself has begun using AI for both internal operations and member-facing functions.This view can be verified once AI-related usage indicators are disclosed for the first time in the FY26 securities report (expected to be submitted around March 2027).The cumulative number of people who use AI functions every day (approx. 2,420,000 people)30% or moreIf so, we can conclude that our company is now the gateway to using AI, rather than losing users to external AI.
BEAR Those who are bearish believe that the very way students search for places to apply will change. When students who are about to graduate start asking external AI services about where to apply, their first stop will be AI, not just one career. Even if unique testimonials retain business customers, it may take time for companies to realize that student visits are declining. The usage rate of the new graduate platform was 64.5% among members graduating in 2026 (FY26 Q1 financial results briefing material).Even at the time of FY27 1H financial results briefing materials, the usage index of AI functions was not disclosed, and this usage rate was200bps or moreIf it declines, this view holds true.
03 · Highlights

What you can do to increase capital efficiency

Based on recent disclosures, here are three things companies can do with their disclosure and capital policies. In either case, evaluation can be changed without waiting for profits to increase.

Highlight 01 · Disclosure
Sales composition and recurring income ratio for new graduates and mid-career employees
Breakdown of FY25 consolidated sales ¥7,576 million yen into currently undisclosed subsegments
FY25 consolidated sales (disclosed)
¥7,576M
New graduate platform sales
Not disclosed
Mid-career platform sales
Not disclosed
Contribution from acquired companies (Lightrose, etc.)
Not disclosed
Recurring sales ratio
Not disclosed
AI-related sales/dialogue KPI
Not disclosed
Single segment disclosure - No product breakdown - No independent disclosure of retention ratio - Acquired companies are also consolidated into the same sales line
One carrier is disclosed as a single segment. Since Lightrose will be consolidated from Q1 FY26 and Kids Corporation from Q3 FY26, the unit economics of all three groups will be consolidated into one sales line. Outside investors cannot differentiate and evaluate the new graduate franchise, which has an operating profit margin of over 30%, the smaller mid-career business, and the high school network advertising business, which has an operating profit margin of 11%, based on published numbers alone. Adding four items to each quarter's supplementary slide will allow the market to evaluate franchises and acquisitions separately. Specifically(i) Sales of new graduates and mid-career employees, (ii) Product composition of job postings, scouts, personnel introductions, events, and tie-up articles, (iii) Contribution of acquired companies by segment, (iv) Ratio of continuing sales to consolidated totalIt is. There are four items of additional information required. The multiplier effect affects the discount that the market is currently pricing in for uncertainty, not the profits themselves.
execution burden
Added 4 numbers to explanatory materials
fastest trigger
Q2 FY26 financial results briefing · August 2026
Highlight 02 · M&A discipline
Return on invested capital (ROIC) for each acquisition target and profitability for each customer
Cash trends for 6 years · ¥M (end balance)
FY20 (December 2020)
¥845
FY21 (December 2021)
¥2,231
FY22 (December 2022)
¥2,658
FY23 (December 2023)
¥3,187
FY24 (December 2024)
¥4,310
FY25 (December 2025)
¥6,124
Q1 FY26 (March 2026)
¥6,764
Cash increased for 6th consecutive quarter · 3 acquisitions announced in 9 months · Return on invested capital by deal not disclosed
The company has clearly stated disciplined standards regarding M&A. i.e.EV/EBITDA less than 5 times, goodwill ratio to net assets less than 50%, size of one deal less than 15% of market capitalizationThere are three conditions. On the other hand, performance trends in line with these standards are not disclosed. FY25 net profit is¥1.5bn, dividends absorbed about 30%, leaving roughly ¥1.04bn of retained earnings for reinvestment. Capex used ¥278M and Lightrose’s acquisition used ¥32M of cash, within the ¥119M investment cash flow remaining after capex. Net cash still rose ¥1.81bn YoY. Trailing ROE is 31%, and Greenblatt ROIC, OP divided by working capital plus fixed assets, is 38%. A 5x EV/EBITDA acquisition ceiling implies roughly a 20% marginal yield per deal, far above the 0.4% cash yield replaced but below the core business’s internal return. Three acquisitions were announced in nine months, with Kids Corporation closing in July. Cash retained at 38% ROCE must compound at an unproven acquisition return rather than the established franchise’s own return.Unless the return on invested capital for each acquisition target is disclosed, the market cannot judge whether each M&A is increasing the corporate value of the core business or diluting profitability. Disclosure that can be confirmed on a case-by-case and quarterly basis is necessary.
execution burden
1 table for each project in financial documents
fastest trigger
FY26 full year results February 2027
Highlight 03 · Capital policy
Calculation formula for shareholder returns and upper limit on cash held
Holdings concentration and dividend trends · 2026 snapshot
Directly owned by Mr. Naoyuki Miyashita (founder and CEO)
40.5%
Mr. Miyashita (via MTM, asset management company)
16.7%
Mr. Miyashita total owned blocks
57.2%
Asset Management One (largest institutional investor)
4.94%
Directly owned by Mr. Arihiro Nagasawa (COO)
4.75%
Free float (residual)
~33%
Dividend trends FY24 ¥10 (post-stock split basis) → FY25 ¥25 (initial guide ¥14, revised to ¥21 in November 2025, revised to ¥25 in February 2026) → FY26 company plan ¥34 · Announced dividend payout ratio target of ~30% as of February 2026 · No clear upper limit on cash balance · No resolution to continue share buybacks
In February 2026, the dividend payout ratio reached the level of approximately 30% of net income for the first time. The dividend has been revised upward twice in three months. ¥14 → ¥21 in November 2025, ¥21 → ¥25 in February 2026, and FY26 company plan ¥34. was the path. What has not been disclosed is the maximum cash balance, the continued resolution to buy back shares, and whether the M&A candidate is expected to absorb surplus reserves. Q1 As of the end of FY26, cash was ¥6.76bn, interest-bearing debt was approximately ¥0.15bn, and current liability was ¥3.5bn, and net cash had increased for the 6th consecutive quarter. Japan's founder-led small-cap stocks, with a combined 57% ownership by the founder-CEO, have historically left open future options for acquisition opportunities whose pace and returns remain untested. If the upper limit on cash holdings, the decision-making rules for share buybacks, and the dividend calculation formula can be made clear on a single capital policy slide, there is ample room to reduce future options and undervaluation that the market is currently pricing in.
execution burden
1 board resolution + 1 IR slide
fastest trigger
FY26 full year results February 2027
04 · Scenario

Scenarios for the next four quarters

Three scenarios for the next four quarters. We organized stock price ranges for each combination of performance and disclosure.

bearish scenario
¥1,500 〜 ¥1,850
−21% 〜 −3%
Estimated multiple · ~7~8x EV/Operating profit (forecast)
The dilution caused by the consolidation of Kids Corporation appeared as feared, and it was confirmed that the strong performance in Q1 was also due to seasonal factors.None of the three points of interest are executed.。
Base scenario
¥1,950 〜 ¥2,400
+2% 〜 +26%
Expected multiple · ~10~12x EV/Operating profit (forecast)
FY26 operating profit reached or slightly exceeded guidance (¥3,000M),1 out of 3 points of interest will be executed。
bullish scenario
¥2,800 〜 ¥3,300
+47% 〜 +73%
Estimated multiple · ~14~17x EV/Operating income (forecast)
2 out of 3 points of interest are executedWith FY26 operating profit exceeding ¥3.3bn and AI-related engagement KPIs being disclosed, the valuation multiple will rise to the range of platform peers.
SOTP · Core business
Carrier data platform (single segment, 3 monetization layers)
FY25 consolidated sales¥7,576M
FY26 guidance sales¥10,500M
FY26 guidance operating profit¥3,000M
Operating profit margin (consolidated forecast)~28.6%
Peer companies (listed Japanese recruitment platform)~11-14 times estimated
Medium expected EV:~¥30bn(FY26 forecast operating profit x ~10x)
SOTP · Netcache
Cash and deposits on BS (17% of market capitalization)
Q1 End of FY26 (March 2026) Cash and deposits¥6,764M
Current liabilities (working capital requirements/estimates)~¥3,540M
Surplus compared to explicit policy~¥3,200M
FY26 announced dividend (DPS)¥34
Assumed EV contribution¥6,614M (after deducting debt ¥150M)
Cash invested with a bank deposit yield of ~0.4% against a performance-based ROCE of 38%. The factor pushing down the value is that the policy for utilizing surplus is not disclosed.
Similar company valuation multiple/comparison · Snapshot as of July 10, 2026
Listed Japanese recruitment platform peer company set · EV recalculated using current snapshot stock price
4377 One carrier (targeted in this report)15.2x actual base · Forecast 10.9x
6098 Recruit Holdings23.6x actual base · Macro reference (held by Indeed/Glassdoor)
6194 Atrae18.3 times actual base
5139 Open work9.1x actual base
2301 Academic information7.3x actual results Sales are flat to declining
7047 portN.M. Not applicable (low performance-based EBITDA)
TTM EBITDA of each peer company is obtained from the latest financial results disclosure. - Forecast multiple is shown only for the company based on One Career's FY26 operating profit company plan ¥3,000M. The median price of other companies in the same industry (excluding port abnormal values) is ~13.7 times based on actual results. One Career's performance is above the median price, and based on forecasts, it trades at 10.9 times its own FY26 operating profit company plan.
SOTP Crosscheck · Total
Core business + net cash. Expected range per share
Core business EV (medium assumption)~¥30bn
Net cash (face value)¥6.6bn
Estimated shareholder value (face value)~¥36bn
Per share (18.35 million shares)~¥1,995
vs. current stock price ¥2,150 (July 10th)Assumed gap ~−7%
The market is pricing SOTP, which is ~10 times the FY26 operating profit guidance plus net cash, by about 8% in advance. From here, in order to maintain the base scenario, one of the points of interest will need to land.
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