Company research

Company researchTSE GROWTH · 5570 · FY end SEP

JENOBA Co., Ltd.

JENOBA provides monthly subscriptions to GNSS correction data that reduce positioning errors from meters to centimeters, earning a 56% OP margin. Its platform uses about 1,300 Geospatial Information Authority reference stations. Watch whether subscriber growth exceeds 6% and how ¥3bn of net cash is used and returned.

Company

JENOBA Co., Ltd.

株式会社ジェノバ

Monthly subscriptions to GPS correction data providing centimeter-level positioning accuracy.

Last Close
¥677 May 28
−23% from 24-month peak ¥875 · +26% off 24-month trough ¥539
Market Cap / enterprise value (EV)
¥9.0bn / EV ¥5.9bn
ex-treasury basis · net cash ¥3.0bn (cash ¥3.05bn · zero debt) = 34% of market cap
EV / OP · forward
7.6x
ex-treasury EV ÷ FY9/26E company OP guidance ¥779M
ROCE · trailing
23% · FY09/25
EBIT ÷ capital employed · ROE 15.8% (per YUHO)
OP margin · standalone
56.6% · FY09/25
FY09/26 co. guidance 54.4% (server-refresh drag)
Shares & Float
13.23M sh · ex-treasury
float ~ 35% · Minami family 39.5% · Topcon 11.3% (ex-treasury)
INTRODUCTION

What does JENOBA do?

JENOBA helps people in Japan find out exactly where they are. The customer is a surveyor measuring a piece of land, a contractor running a bulldozer on a construction site, a farmer steering a tractor across a rice field, or a drone operator mapping a forest. They pay JENOBA a monthly subscription because ordinary GPS is accurate only to a few meters, which is not enough for these jobs. The workflow is simple: rough GPS position → JENOBA server → correction signal → about two-centimeter accuracy.

The service runs on about 1,300 GPS reference stations (fixed government stations that continuously measure satellite signals) operated by the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan. JENOBA buys live readings through the Japan Surveying Association, the licensed commercial distributor of that network, then processes the readings with its own algorithm (patent number 5832050) and streams the corrected data. This corrected output is called a correction signal: data that adjusts GPS errors in real time so field users can work at centimeter-level precision. In the year ended September 2025, the company sold ¥1,367 million of subscriptions. OP was ¥774 million, so OP margin (OP divided by sales) was 56.6%. That margin is why the stock has often traded as a quality utility. For FY09/26, what matters is whether server and software spending is temporary, or whether depreciation resets margin closer to 50%.

The company had 9,348 paying subscribers at FY09/25 year-end. Subscriber count has grown about 6% a year for five years. That makes JENOBA predictable, but not fast-growing. What matters next is whether KDDI-linked new fields can lift growth into the 7–8% range without requiring a much larger cost base. At the end of March 2026, JENOBA held ¥3.05bn in cash and deposits, equal to about one-third of market value (cash and deposits divided by market capitalization). That cash protects downside, but it also depresses ROE if it is not returned or redeployed.

JENOBA is a high-margin subscription utility for centimeter-level positioning. The stock question is not whether the existing business is good. It is whether a 6% subscriber grower with a 57% OP margin can turn its ¥3.05bn cash pile into either growth, buybacks, or a higher dividend before ROE keeps drifting lower. In May 2026, management held full-year guidance steady and raised the dividend from ¥6 to ¥7 per share. What matters now is whether capital allocation becomes repeatable policy, not one-off actions.

01 · PRICE REGIME

What has driven the stock over the past two years?

Stable subscription earnings met a much lower valuation multiple.

5570 vs TOPIX · Daily candlestick + volume
Peak ¥875 · 2024-07-01 Trough ¥539 · 2025-04-07 Current ¥677
JENOBA · Daily 60-day moving average TOPIX rebased (1308.T) Volume

01 · PEAK REGIME JENOBA listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Growth market in April 2023. Its first full year as a listed company (ending September 2023) showed sales up 3.8% YoY and 626 net new paying subscribers. Investors who looked at this saw a service that grew steadily and kept 57 yen of every 100 yen in sales as OP. By July 2024 the stock had climbed to ¥875. At that price, investors were paying roughly 17 times the company’s trailing earnings — a normal multiple for a small Japanese growth company with this kind of margin.

02 · CORRECTION Between late 2024 and April 2025 the stock fell from ¥875 to ¥539, a drop of 38%. The Tokyo market overall was roughly flat in the same period, so this was not just market weather. Two things changed in the disclosures. First, the pace of new subscriber sign-ups slowed: FY09/24 had 535 net new subscribers; FY09/25 had only 284. Second, ROE had been drifting lower for four straight years — from 20% in 2021 down to 14.5% by 2024. Investors noticed both.

03 · BUYBACK + RECORD EARNINGS In February 2025, after dissolving its business alliance with Hitachi Industrial Equipment Systems, the company bought back Hitachi IES’s entire 1,000,000-share stake via ToSTNeT-3 at ¥740 per share — ¥740 million, 7.21% of shares outstanding excluding treasury. Treasury shares rose from 607,000 to 1,607,000, and earnings per remaining share went up. In November 2025 the company posted another record-revenue year (sales of ¥1.37 billion, OP margin 57%).

04 · CURRENT On 12 May 2026 the company released its 1H results for the year ending September 2026. Sales rose 4.8% YoY, OP rose 3.3% YoY, and net income rose 4.2% YoY — each a 1H record. Gross margin fell slightly because the company replaced its main servers, booking ¥38 million of hardware and ¥84 million of new software in the first six months alone. Full-year guidance was unchanged at +4.8% YoY revenue and +0.7% YoY OP; the dividend rose from ¥6 to ¥7.

02 · CONTENTION

Three questions the market is debating

Pricing power, renewal durability, and cash use define the debate.

Can JENOBA keep 55%+ margins after the FY09/26 software and server refresh?
Is the lower OP margin guided for FY09/26 a one-year refresh effect, or the start of something structural?
BULL
  • The data fee is fixed, so each new subscriber adds revenue at little extra cost. If the second-half margin returns above 55% and the full year beats the 54.4% guide, the current dip will look like a one-year refresh cost.
BEAR
  • The spending is software investment rather than a one-time hardware refresh, so depreciation will recur.
  • If subscriber growth stays at 6%, that extra depreciation pulls steady-state OP margin closer to 50% than 57%.
Is the single data supplier a moat, or the one risk JENOBA cannot control?
Is sourcing all the reference-station data from one supplier a moat, or a single point of failure?
BULL
  • The Japan Surveying Association is the only licensed commercial source for readings from Japan's 1,300 reference stations. JENOBA has bought that data since 2002, giving the relationship a long record of stable supply and pricing.
BEAR
  • JENOBA has no negotiating leverage with its only supplier. The annual report names this as a risk in plain language.
  • Twenty-four years of stable pricing is not a guarantee — the longer a streak runs, the larger any one-time adjustment can be.
  • Separately, Japan’s own positioning satellites broadcast a free correction signal that has been improving YoY.
What will management do with ¥3bn of cash?
How does the ¥3 billion in cash, a third of market value, eventually get returned?
BULL
  • In February 2025 the company spent ¥740 million buying back its own stock — 7.21% of shares outstanding ex-treasury — absorbing Hitachi IES’s entire stake when their business alliance was dissolved.
BEAR
  • Management talks about acquisitions but does not make them. No deal has been announced.
  • Investment securities yield about 1.2%.
03 · CATALYST

What could change over the next twelve months?

Three management actions could close the gap without faster growth.

Can the KDDI partnership move subscriber growth above the historical 6%?
Can the KDDI partnership lift subscriber growth above the historical 6% a year?
Period-end contract count (IDs, 5-year CAGR 6.0%)
FY09/21
7,393
FY09/22
7,903
FY09/23
8,529
FY09/24
9,064
FY09/25
9,348
FY09/26 2Q (Mar 2026)
9,523
+1,955 net subscribers FY09/21 to FY09/25 · the 2Q FY09/26 figure fell 62 from the Dec 2025 peak of 9,585 on seasonal IT-agriculture inactivity
  • For five years, JENOBA’s subscriber count has grown 6% a year through its core six fields: surveying, aerial surveying, land-and-house registry, civil ICT construction, IT agriculture, and drones.
  • Several of the proofs of concept — drone delivery, mobility, theme-park audio guides — have started turning into paid services.
Execution cost
Low (added on top of the existing servers)
Earliest catalyst
FY09/27 1Q (November 2026)
What is the ¥133mn software build-up supposed to produce?
What is the ¥133 million of software the company has built up on its balance sheet actually for?
Software on the balance sheet (intangible assets, period end)
FY09/22
¥13M
FY09/23
¥8M
FY09/24
¥6M
FY09/25
¥61M
Mar 2026
¥133M
+¥127M in 18 months · the largest software-investment cycle in the company’s history
  • At the end of FY09/24, the company carried ¥6 million of software on its balance sheet.
  • The May 2026 disclosure does not say what the software is for.
  • The company has named three growth priorities in writing: partnerships with hardware makers, new fields beyond the original six, and tools for its sales agents.
Execution cost
Medium; first-half capex annualizes to ~17% of sales
Earliest catalyst
FY09/26 3Q results (August 2026)
Will the cash pile become buybacks, dividends, M&A — or just more cash?
What does the company do with the ¥3 billion in cash sitting on its balance sheet?
Cash and equity on the balance sheet (March 2026)
Cash & deposits
¥3.05bn
Investments & other assets
¥0.55bn
Market cap
¥8.85bn
Net cash / market cap
34%
FY09/25 operating cash flow ¥589M; FY09/25 return was dividend ¥79M + buyback ¥740M = ¥819M
  • If the company commits to a recurring buyback, raises the dividend payout above 30%, or announces its first outside acquisition, today’s 7.5x forward EV/OP can move toward the 11 times that domestic data-subscription companies trade at.
Execution cost
Low (covered by cash on hand)
Earliest catalyst
FY09/26 full-year result (November 2026)
04 · VALUATION

What has to be true for the stock to work from here?

The cases start from current earnings, cash, and the prevailing multiple.

BEAR
¥500 – ¥600
−25% to −10%
Implied multiple · forward EV/OP ~5–6x
The subscription business slows, the new software starts depreciating, and cash keeps piling up without being returned. Subscriber growth eases from 6% a year toward 4%. By FY09/27 the new software pulls OP margin to about 50%. No buyback, no acquisition follows.
At 5–6x forward EV/OP, the bear case sits at less than half Topcon's multiple despite net cash equal to 34% of market value.
BASE
¥700 – ¥850
+5% to +27%
Implied multiple · forward EV/OP ~7–9x
The business continues as it has, and capital return improves in steps. Subscribers grow at 6% a year. OP margin stabilizes near 56% by FY09/27. The dividend payout ratio rises toward 20–25%. A second buyback runs roughly once a year, keeping cash from drifting above 25% of market value.
BULL
¥900 – ¥1,100
+35% to +65%
Implied multiple · forward EV/OP ~10–12x
New fields and a first acquisition unwind the cash discount. The KDDI partnership produces paid revenue from drone delivery and mobility during FY09/27. Subscriber growth moves into the 7–8% range. Between FY09/26 and FY09/27 the company either announces its first outside acquisition or runs a second buyback worth more than ¥500 million.
10–12x forward EV/OP matches Zenrin (9474, around 11x), the closest Japanese company selling recurring location data.
SOTP · Core positioning-data business
Existing subscription business: Network RTK, post-processed data, and J-View correction services for professional positioning users.
FY09/25 revenue (annualized)¥1.33bn
5-year revenue CAGR6.8%
Assumed EV / Revenue3.5–5.0x
Implied business value ¥4.6–6.6bn
SOTP · New fields from the KDDI partnership
KDDI partnership option value across drone delivery, mobility, tourism, and infrastructure inspection.
FY09/25 revenue (embedded)¥30–50M
Assumed growth rate30–50%
Assumed EV / Revenue8.0–12.0x
Implied business value ¥0.2–0.6bn
SOTP · Net cash and investments
Cash and securities, discounted for idle balance-sheet value until returned or redeployed.
Cash & deposits¥3.05bn
Investments & other assets¥0.55bn
Discount for cash sitting idle15–25%
Implied value ¥2.7–3.1bn
SOTP · Comparable companies
Forward EV / OP, range calibration
9474 Zenrin~11x
7732 Topcon~13x
9233 Asia Air Survey~9x
TRMB Trimble~27x
HEXA-B Hexagon AB~22x
Japanese median for subscription / positioning peers is about 11x. Overseas leaders trade at roughly twice that.
SOTP · Equity Bridge
Implied equity value and per-share range
Core distribution business (3.5–5.0x EV/Revenue)¥4.6–6.6bn
New fields (8.0–12.0x EV/Revenue)¥0.2–0.6bn
Net cash + investments (15–25% discount)¥2.7–3.1bn
SOTP implied equity¥7.5–10.3bn
Shares ex-treasury (March 2026)13.23M
Implied per share¥567–¥779
Today’s ¥669 sits roughly mid-range of the SOTP band. The SOTP midpoint is around ¥673, so the stock is near fair value today.
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