Company research

Company researchTSE STANDARD · 6037 · FY end JUL

Rakumachi, Inc.

Rakumachi receives monthly listing fees from 5,459 real estate agencies and presents rental apartments and small commercial properties to 487,000 individual investors. On May 25, 2026 it corrected historical page-view figures that had been presented as a key audience acquisition metric.

Company

Rakumachi, Inc.

楽待株式会社

A property investment marketplace funded by monthly listing subscriptions from real estate agencies.

Last Close
¥977
May 26, 2026 · −34% from Sep-25 peak · +95% off May-24 trough
Market Cap / enterprise value (EV)
¥20.7bn / ¥20.3bn EV
2026-07-10 close · net cash ¥0.45bn (2% of cap) · plus ¥4.08bn US-dollar bond portfolio (separate non-operating reserve) · zero borrowings
EV / OP · forward
11.3x
trailing 13.1x · JP listed digital-marketplace peer median ~5.7x (2026-07-10) · premium ~2x median — an analyst call
ROCE · trailing
28% · 3yr trend
FY07/23 24.3% → FY07/24 20.1% → FY07/25 28.2% · re-expanding
OP margin · group
48.9% · FY07/25
1H FY07/26 55.3% · FY07/26 guide 51.4% · single-segment portal
Shares & Float
19.4M sh · ex-treasury
Sakaguchi family 68.2% · VIS Advisors 5.1% · 850k of buybacks authorized FY07/26
01 · Share-price regime

What moved the share price over the past two years?

Rakumachi is a site that connects real estate companies across the country who want to sell profitable properties such as rental apartments, parking lots, and small commercial buildings with individual investors who want to buy them. Real estate companies pay a monthly fee to list properties. It has been ranked high in searches for "income real estate" for many years, and its YouTube channel that explains real estate investment has surpassed 1 billion views by the end of 2025, so it costs almost nothing to attract users.

6037 and TOPIX · 24 months · Daily candle + volume
high price¥1,479 · 2025-09-16 low price¥501 · 2024-05-16 Currently¥977
Rakumachi · Daily candle 60 day moving average TOPIX Rebase (1308.T) Volume

01 · The rally Rakumachi’s main product is its income-property marketplace. In January 2026, about 487,000 individual investors used it free while 5,459 agencies paid monthly listing fees. Three smaller revenue streams add a patented matching feature, Rakumachi Premium subscriptions with H1 FY7/26 ARPU up 17%, and sponsored videos for property managers and financial institutions. Margins benefit from low acquisition costs: twenty years of search visibility and a YouTube channel exceeding one billion cumulative views by end-2025 draw users, while Premium and sponsored videos have pricing scope. Separately, ¥4.08bn of US-dollar corporate bonds held to maturity yield an average 5.5%, producing roughly ¥0.114bn interest every six months below OP. These funds earn about one-fifth of the core business’s return and depress group returns unless released for uses such as buybacks. The shares nearly tripled from ¥501 on May 16, 2024 to ¥1,479 on September 16, 2025. FY7/24 results in September 2024 showed sales up 13% to ¥2.36bn and a 44.9% margin, alongside about ¥4bn allocated to bonds (nine securities acquired for ¥4.0089bn). September 12, 2025 FY7/25 results showed sales up 33.6% to ¥3.16bn and OP up 45.6% to ¥1.55bn, with margin at 48.9%. The same day brought the CEO transition from founder Naohiro Sakaguchi to long-serving marketing leader Ryo Fujie and the fourth buyback in twelve months, capped at 500,000 shares and ¥0.75bn.

02 · The reversal The shares lost about one-third of their gains in eight months after September’s high, reaching ¥990 on March 13, 2026 despite strong results. October 2025’s AGM expanded the board from four to seven, adding two long-serving department heads as internal directors. The founder’s 68.2% stake remained unchanged, but day-to-day oversight broadened. December’s Q1 FY7/26 results showed OP up 80.4% and sales up 17.0%; March’s H1 showed OP up 43.4%, sales up 14.9%, a 55.3% margin and ¥1.757bn revenue. The decline did not reflect business slowing. September’s near-tripling from the May 2024 ¥501 low was more plausibly formed in thin trading. The Sakaguchi family owns 68.2%; VIS Advisors LP at 5.08% is the only other disclosed holder above 5%. Institutions can trade only about one-quarter of outstanding shares. Limited float amplifies small purchases and can equally amplify declines when buying stops.

03 · Current position On May 25, 2026 management announced a buyback of up to 600,000 shares, 3.09% excluding treasury shares, for ¥0.5bn through November 27, alongside corrections to page views in six releases since September 2025’s FY7/25 results. Only PV changed; revenue and profit did not, because agencies pay by listing count rather than views. Overstatement increased in newer releases: FY7/25 PV fell 0.6%, Q1 FY7/26 5.6%, and H1 8.5%, reducing H1 YoY growth from 23.2% to 12.7%. Management only said that a review of internal aggregation found errors. Watch whether it publishes the revised method and several years of monthly PV so membership growth can be reconciled to data; whether the policy for ¥4.08bn of bonds changes, as they represent about two-thirds of assets but earn only one-fifth of the core business’s return; and whether the income-property marketplace’s competitive strength is still increasing or growth is maturing. Forward EV/EBIT is 11.3x, above domestic digital marketplace peers’ median of 5.7x.

02 · Investor issues

Three questions dividing investor views

Three points emerge from

's most recent quarterly financial results and revised disclosure on May 25, 2026. These are the impact of the PV correction, how the funds remaining in corporate bonds will be used, and whether Rakumachi will continue to grow.

Issue 01 · Reliability of disclosure
Was the PV correction on May 25, 2026 a one-time mistake that could restore trust by explaining the aggregation method? Or is it a sign that we should reconsider the growth in users?
Bullish Bulls emphasize that sales and profits have not been revised. This is because member stores' fees are determined by the number of listings, and PV is only an indicator of usage status. Even after the correction, the operating profit margin for the first half was +11pt compared to the same period last year.55.3%, and the PV is also for the full year 7/25.+22.8%, in the first half of 7/26+12.7%and is increasing.If the third quarter disclosure scheduled for June 2026 retrospectively shows three years of monthly PV and explains the aggregation method, and no new corrections occur thereafter, this concern will fade.
Bearish Bearish groups believe that every time the correction range is disclosed,0.6%、5.6%、8.5%We see this as a problem. It is possible that this was not a one-time problem, but rather that there was a flaw in the aggregation procedure itself. The correction was announced on the same day as the new share buyback, and there was no mention of third-party confirmation or annotation of the revised value by the audit firm.If third-party verification of management indicators is not introduced in the full-year disclosure for the fiscal year July 26, 2026, scheduled for September 2026, and past figures are revised downward further, the fears of bears will be confirmed.
Issue 02 · Where to allocate capital
Are ¥4.08bn of US dollar-denominated corporate bonds, which account for about two-thirds of its total assets, a necessary reserve, or a low-yielding asset with a five-fold difference in earnings from its main business?
Bullish Bulls believe that the company has already850,000 shares・¥0.8bnWe highly value the company's decision to acquire its own shares. This is the second new quota in 12 months. With the cancellation of 1,400,000 shares in October 2025, the number of issued shares will decrease from 21.15M shares.19.75MThe stock has decreased. Dividend forecast per share for 7/26¥13This is the fifth consecutive year of increased dividends. US dollar-denominated corporate bonds also have significantly higher interest rates than Japanese deposits.5.5%earn interest. Mr. Sakaguchi, the founder, owns 68.2% of the company, so if the value per share increases through stock acquisition, he will also benefit. On the other hand, if you make acquisitions or invest in growth by issuing new shares, your equity will be diluted. The company's current stock buyback policy is also consistent with the economic interests of the company's founders.If the cumulative shareholder returns (dividends + share acquisitions) for the July 27th period are ¥1.5bn or more, and the book value of corporate bonds is less than ¥3.5bn during the period, it can be determined that funds have begun to flow to shareholders.
Bearish Bearish observers point to the fact that about two-thirds of total assets remain as securities that are not used in the company's core business. The return on capital of the main business is28.2%However, the dividend policy is still “payout ratio.”20%It remains at the same level. There has been no M&A or overseas expansion in 20 years, and the allocation of funds so far has been biased towards saving the profits rather than expanding the business. The July 25th annual securities report also clearly states foreign exchange risk, but does not indicate a multi-year policy that links the use of corporate bonds with shareholder returns.If the dividend payout ratio target remains unchanged at 20% even in the full-year disclosure in September 2026, and the book value of corporate bonds remains above ¥4bn at the end of the period, there are growing concerns that surplus funds will not move.
Issue 03 · Is competitive advantage strengthening?
The number of real estate agents in Japan is 24 times the current number of Rakumachi member stores. Is it possible to take advantage of this room and increase the number of affiliated stores? Or, as the revised PV growth rate has halved, has it entered a period of mature growth?
Bullish The bullish opinion is the number of member stores that Rakumachi has as paying customers.5,459 storesHowever, of the approximately 130,000 real estate companies in Japan,4%only the rest96%I think there is still room for this. Number of YouTube channel subscribers is YoY+35.3%reached 1.45 million, totaling over 1 billion views. Rakumachi Premium members also+14.7%, ARPU is approximately17%Increase. There is still no competition on the same scale in the area specializing in income real estate.This issue will be settled if the number of member stores is 5,700 or more, the YoY growth rate of registered members exceeds +13%, and the YoY growth rate of Premium members exceeds +15% in the full-year disclosure in September 2026.
Bearish Bearish groups believe that the YoY growth rate of registered members will increase in the 7/22 period.+18%From 7/25 period+13.2%, 7/26 term H1+12.4%The corrected H1 PV growth rate is+23.2%From+12.7%and the YoY growth rate of the number of member stores.+9.0%We believe that this is the slowest level in recent quarters. In addition,SUUMOMajor comprehensive portals for housing, such as, also handle investment property information (this is JII's observation and is not disclosed by the company as a competitive risk).This issue will converge if the YoY growth rate in the number of member stores is less than +9%, the YoY growth rate in the number of registered members is less than +12%, and the corrected PV growth rate is less than +12% in the full-year disclosure in September 2026.
03 · Catalyst

What you can do to increase capital efficiency

Based on

's most recent quarterly financial results and the May 25, 2026 correction, there are three things the company can do with its disclosure and capital policy. Even if you don't wait for profits to increase, doing so can lead to a review of your evaluation.

Leverage 01 · Disclosure
External verification of new PV figures and explanation of aggregation methods
Scale of PV correction Correction disclosure dated May 25, 2026
Full year 7/25
−0.6%
7/26 Q1
−5.6%
7/26 first half
−8.5%
Revised first half PV growth rate (compared to the same period last year)
+12.7%
The range of corrections increases with each disclosure point · The growth rate was halved in the most recent period, but it still increased compared to the same period last year
The company has explained “which PV numbers in the past were incorrect,” but has not yet explained “how to prevent the same mistakes in the future.” There are two evaluation materials for restoring trust. First, the next financial results announcement will clearly explain how PVs are currently counted: which logs are used, how duplicate accesses are excluded, and what counts as one view. Second, the consistent application of the new aggregation method will be verified by an external auditor (Ark LLC, which already audits the financial statements, is a natural choice). Without these, investors could start discounting all the numbers Rakumachi reports, even if the non-PV numbers are correct. Additional costs per year¥3~5 million yenThis appears to be a small amount of audit fees and internal IT compliance man-hours.
execution burden
Audit fee + 1 quarterly supplementary document
The earliest trigger
Fiscal year 7/26 3rd quarter disclosure · June 2026
Leverage 02 · Capital policy
Will the actual return level and use of corporate bonds become a multi-year policy?
Amount of share repurchases · Past 12 to 20 months · Each bar represents the amount of one repurchase (¥M)
September 2024 · 1st
¥391M
December 2024 · 2nd time
¥357M
April 2025 · 3rd time
¥451M
September 2025 · 4th time
¥706M
March 2026 · 5th (Resolution)
¥300M
May 2026 · 6th (in progress)
¥500M
Number of issued shares
21.15M → 19.75M（−6.6%）
Dividend per share (annual)
¥8 → ¥10 → ¥13E(5 consecutive quarters of dividend increase)
6 times in about 20 months, total of about ¥2.7bn (¥2.2bn already implemented + ¥0.5bn in progress) · Cancellation of treasury stock 1,400,000 shares in October 2025 · Dividend increase every fiscal year from July 22nd
Looking at the chart above, the company paid dividends in the fiscal year 7/25.¥0.28bn, to acquire treasury stock¥1.13bn(on a cash flow basis). total¥1.41bnAnd this is the net income for the same period¥1.17bnabout120%corresponds to On the other hand, the company's stated dividend policy in its documents remains at a “dividend payout ratio of approximately 20%.” There is a big difference between “what the company actually does” and “what the company officially says.” Total return rate close to current performance80〜100%and an annual¥10~1.5 billionIf the idea of making use of this is presented as a multi-year policy, it will be easier for investors to evaluate returns, which have been treated as a "surprise" quarterly, as a continuous plan. Each 1 yen spent on corporate bonds to acquire treasury stock earns about five times the yield of 1 yen held in corporate bonds. The burden of implementation is one board resolution and one paragraph to be added to IR materials.
execution burden
Board of Directors resolution + 1 note on IR materials
The earliest trigger
7/26 full year disclosure · September 2026
Improvement measure 03 · Capital policy
Will the partial sale of shares held by the founder lead to a change in listing classification on TSE Prime?
Holding structure · Free float and market valuation
Sakaguchi family (founder + spouse)
68.2%
VIS Advisors LP
5.1%
Director Aoyagi and others
~1%
substantial free float
~26%
Excluding the founding family and long-term holdings, the actual free float is approximately one-fourth. The market capitalization and circulation ratio standards of TSE Prime exceed this level.
Founder Mr. Sakaguchi owns Rakumachi's issued shares.68.2%As the company owns the26%This is a so-called “thin float.” This thin floating stock is what makes operating profit margin48.9%This is the structural reason why companies are trading at levels far below the expected EV/EBIT of overseas niche portal companies. Even if large institutional investors try to build up a large position, they cannot continue buying because their own purchases will push up the stock price. In order for the real free float ratio to increase, some of Mr. Sakaguchi's shares will need to be transferred to new investors. tentatively300〜4,000,000 sharesIf the stock is sold to institutional investors, even if the company does not issue new shares, the effective free float ratio will be approximately35%rise to a level exceeding. There will be no dilution of existing shareholders. After that, the company can consider changing its listing classification from TSE Standard to TSE Prime. Preparing for a prime application requires the establishment of a remuneration committee, the continuous publication of English IR materials, and the development of legal and IR systems. Mr. Sakaguchi's personal cost is the capital gains tax associated with the sale. The burden of execution is the work of building the legal and IR system for the application package. The earliest disclosure window isOrdinary general meeting of shareholders in October 2026。
execution burden
Legal support required for application + IR system development
The earliest trigger
Ordinary General Meeting of Shareholders · October 2026
04 · Valuation

3 scenarios

We have divided the possible developments in the next four quarters into three categories: bearish, basic, and bullish. We estimate the stock price range based on how the above-mentioned issues are resolved and how capital policy changes. Neither is a prediction of future stock prices.

bearish scenario
¥700 – ¥850
−28% to −13%
Expected multiple · Expected EV/EBIT ~5.5~6.5x
After the correction, the PV series will not receive third-party guarantees, the growth rate of franchisees and members will further slow down, the dividend payout ratio target will remain at 20%, and the corporate bond portfolio will be preserved.
¥700~¥850 in the

bearish scenario is equivalent to ~5.5~6.5x in expected EV/EBIT, and the median value of domestic digital marketplace similar companies 5.7x (LIFULL 5.8x, GA Technologies 5.6x, Temairazu 5.0x). Close to the 5-7x EV/EBIT typically paid by buyers taking Japan's small-cap listing marketplace private.

Basic scenario
¥950 – ¥1,200
−3% to +23%
Expected multiple · Expected EV/EBIT ~7.5~9.5x
The monthly PV series and methodology notes for three years were announced in the third quarter disclosure, and the company's plan for the July 26th fiscal year was achieved within ±5%, and while shareholder returns will maintain the annual rate of the July 25th fiscal year, the policy itself will not be rewritten.
bullish scenario
¥1,350 – ¥1,650
+38% to +69%
Expected multiple · Expected EV/EBIT ~10~13x
At least one of the three measures will take shape. Specifically, these include introducing third-party guarantees into KPIs, disclosing a multi-year total return policy that is linked to a plan to cancel corporate bonds, or showing the timing of a secondary offering and TSE Prime application together to increase the effective free float.
¥1,350~¥1,650 in the

bullish case is equivalent to ~10~13x in expected EV/EBIT. It is within the top range of domestic digital marketplace similar companies (Azoom 15.5x, GA Technologies 5.6x) and is lower than ~17~25x of overseas niche portals (Rightmove, REA, Hemnet). Even near the upper limit, the evaluation multiple will only increase by about 2 points from the current 11.3x.

SOTP · Core portal business
Property Listing + Proposal + Advertising + Premium + Appraisal Revenue Sources · Single reportable segment, approximately 88% of core business revenue (excluding non-business interest income)
7/26 Plan Portal Revenue~¥3.5bn
Segment operating profit margin (7/26 plan)~51.4%
Estimated portal operating profit (base case)~¥1.8bn
Similar company multiples (LIFULL 5.8x, GA Tech 5.6x, Temairazu 5.0x, Azoom 15.5x)~5〜16x EV/EBIT
Base case portal EV: 8 to 12 times expected operating profit~¥140~22 billion(8-12x is JII's analyst judgment, higher than the median of ~5.7x for similar companies)
Similar company multiple comparison · 2026-07-10
Domestic listed digital marketplace similar companies selected by JII · EV is recalculated using the stock price of 2026-07-10
Rakumachi (6037) / Target of this reportForecast 11.3x · ROCE 28%
LIFULL (2120)・Housing portal, generalExpected ~5.8x · ROCE 8%
GA Technologies (3491) Proptech, intermediary sideExpected ~5.6x · ROCE 9%
AZOOM (3496)・Single real estate marketplaceExpected ~15.5x · ROCE 16%
Temairazu (2477)・Small digital marketplace, operating margin 73.6%Expected ~5.0x · ROCE 16%
Speee (4499)・Excluded due to planned operating deficit for 7/26 periodn/m
As of the closing price of 2026-07-10, the expected median EV/EBIT of the above four companies is~5.7x. Rakumachi is11.3xThis is approximately twice the median value. This difference is due to Rakumachi's higher operating profit margin (48.9%, similar companies have high ROCE (high single digits to low 10%)28.2%) alone cannot explain it. Applying 8-12x to Rakumachi is JII's analyst judgment and is not mechanically derived from the multiples of similar companies.
SOTP · Total
Core portal + non-business debt + cash for working capital. Calculate value per share from EV
Core portal EV (10 times expected operating profit case)~¥18bn
US dollar-denominated corporate bonds (held to maturity, book value)¥4.08bn
Cash for working capital + short-term securities¥1.41bn
SOTP assumed shareholder value~¥23.5bn
SOTP per share (after deducting treasury stock divided by 19,390,000 shares)~¥1,200
SOTP basic case is approximately 13% higher than the current stock price ·basicsupport the scenario,bullishIt is necessary to materialize the catalyst lever · Current market capitalization¥20.7bnFor SOTP base case~¥23.5bn
Important note

This material is not investment advice.

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