[
  {
    "id": "management_fee_rate",
    "economic_definition": "Fee-paying fund cohorts",
    "unit": "JPY million and fraction/year",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-filing PDF25 fee1.85–2%;H1-results PDF5 June FE-AUM366100m;FundV250000m and RE23500m commitments,excluding2%GP",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": 0.0195,
      "base": 0.0195,
      "bull": 0.0195
    },
    "supported_range": "Rate1.85–2%;old harvesting balance0–98070;successor0–350000m",
    "rationale": "FundV contribution retained through2029;older at-cost fees run off with exits. Base successor250bn mid2029 uses prior vintage intervals and approximate5year investment period;unannounced.",
    "falsifier": "Fees/AUM and successor first close differ from the assumed timing/size",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "old_fee_base_end",
    "economic_definition": "Fee-paying fund cohorts",
    "unit": "JPY million and fraction/year",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-filing PDF25 fee1.85–2%;H1-results PDF5 June FE-AUM366100m;FundV250000m and RE23500m commitments,excluding2%GP",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": [
        90000,
        78000,
        66000,
        54000
      ],
      "base": [
        86000,
        66000,
        46000,
        26000
      ],
      "bull": [
        82000,
        58000,
        34000,
        10000
      ]
    },
    "supported_range": "Rate1.85–2%;old harvesting balance0–98070;successor0–350000m",
    "rationale": "FundV contribution retained through2029;older at-cost fees run off with exits. Base successor250bn mid2029 uses prior vintage intervals and approximate5year investment period;unannounced.",
    "falsifier": "Fees/AUM and successor first close differ from the assumed timing/size",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "new_fund_commitment_end",
    "economic_definition": "Fee-paying fund cohorts",
    "unit": "JPY million and fraction/year",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-filing PDF25 fee1.85–2%;H1-results PDF5 June FE-AUM366100m;FundV250000m and RE23500m commitments,excluding2%GP",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": [
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0
      ],
      "base": [
        0,
        0,
        0,
        250000
      ],
      "bull": [
        0,
        0,
        300000,
        350000
      ]
    },
    "supported_range": "Rate1.85–2%;old harvesting balance0–98070;successor0–350000m",
    "rationale": "FundV contribution retained through2029;older at-cost fees run off with exits. Base successor250bn mid2029 uses prior vintage intervals and approximate5year investment period;unannounced.",
    "falsifier": "Fees/AUM and successor first close differ from the assumed timing/size",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "carry_realization",
    "economic_definition": "Realization of existing contingent carry",
    "unit": "JPY million and fractions",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF5–6 June carry700+3900+17400m;PDF7 10983m H1 recognition;H1cost oneoffs654m",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": [
        0,
        500,
        1500,
        2500
      ],
      "base": [
        1000,
        4000,
        6000,
        7000
      ],
      "bull": [
        1500,
        5500,
        7500,
        7500
      ]
    },
    "supported_range": "Realization0–22000 cumulatively;haircut0–40%;bonus6–12%;receivable0–50%",
    "rationale": "No future accrual modeled. Base converts18bn of existing22bn by2029;6%compensation costproxy anchored to H1oneoffs;bear slower exits/writedowns.",
    "falsifier": "DPI,clawback assessment,exits/recognition and receivables fail to support conversion",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "carry_stock_haircut",
    "economic_definition": "Realization of existing contingent carry",
    "unit": "JPY million and fractions",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF5–6 June carry700+3900+17400m;PDF7 10983m H1 recognition;H1cost oneoffs654m",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": 0.4,
      "base": 0,
      "bull": 0
    },
    "supported_range": "Realization0–22000 cumulatively;haircut0–40%;bonus6–12%;receivable0–50%",
    "rationale": "No future accrual modeled. Base converts18bn of existing22bn by2029;6%compensation costproxy anchored to H1oneoffs;bear slower exits/writedowns.",
    "falsifier": "DPI,clawback assessment,exits/recognition and receivables fail to support conversion",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "carry_bonus_ratio",
    "economic_definition": "Realization of existing contingent carry",
    "unit": "JPY million and fractions",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF5–6 June carry700+3900+17400m;PDF7 10983m H1 recognition;H1cost oneoffs654m",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": 0.06,
      "base": 0.06,
      "bull": 0.06
    },
    "supported_range": "Realization0–22000 cumulatively;haircut0–40%;bonus6–12%;receivable0–50%",
    "rationale": "No future accrual modeled. Base converts18bn of existing22bn by2029;6%compensation costproxy anchored to H1oneoffs;bear slower exits/writedowns.",
    "falsifier": "DPI,clawback assessment,exits/recognition and receivables fail to support conversion",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "carry_receivable_fraction",
    "economic_definition": "Realization of existing contingent carry",
    "unit": "JPY million and fractions",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF5–6 June carry700+3900+17400m;PDF7 10983m H1 recognition;H1cost oneoffs654m",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": 0.5,
      "base": 0.25,
      "bull": 0.15
    },
    "supported_range": "Realization0–22000 cumulatively;haircut0–40%;bonus6–12%;receivable0–50%",
    "rationale": "No future accrual modeled. Base converts18bn of existing22bn by2029;6%compensation costproxy anchored to H1oneoffs;bear slower exits/writedowns.",
    "falsifier": "DPI,clawback assessment,exits/recognition and receivables fail to support conversion",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "fixed_cost_growth",
    "economic_definition": "Fees to operating profit",
    "unit": "JPY million,fractions,years",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF7 recurringcost2297m;PDF12 D&A179m;H1-deck PDF2 staff116;supportfees171m",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": 0.09,
      "base": 0.07120000000000015,
      "bull": 0.09
    },
    "supported_range": "Staff/wage combined7.12–9%;variable5–20%;support0–6%;capex50–200m;life3–7years",
    "rationale": "Historical costs separated into10%variablefee proxy and remaining fixedcashcost,not future margin plug. Base4%staff+3%wages. Capex100m with5year incremental depreciation.",
    "falsifier": "Hiring/wages,outside fees or premises cost exceed assumed base;see+500m sensitivity",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "variable_fee_cost_ratio",
    "economic_definition": "Fees to operating profit",
    "unit": "JPY million,fractions,years",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF7 recurringcost2297m;PDF12 D&A179m;H1-deck PDF2 staff116;supportfees171m",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": 0.1,
      "base": 0.1,
      "bull": 0.1
    },
    "supported_range": "Staff/wage combined7.12–9%;variable5–20%;support0–6%;capex50–200m;life3–7years",
    "rationale": "Historical costs separated into10%variablefee proxy and remaining fixedcashcost,not future margin plug. Base4%staff+3%wages. Capex100m with5year incremental depreciation.",
    "falsifier": "Hiring/wages,outside fees or premises cost exceed assumed base;see+500m sensitivity",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "support_growth",
    "economic_definition": "Fees to operating profit",
    "unit": "JPY million,fractions,years",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF7 recurringcost2297m;PDF12 D&A179m;H1-deck PDF2 staff116;supportfees171m",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": 0,
      "base": 0.03,
      "bull": 0.06
    },
    "supported_range": "Staff/wage combined7.12–9%;variable5–20%;support0–6%;capex50–200m;life3–7years",
    "rationale": "Historical costs separated into10%variablefee proxy and remaining fixedcashcost,not future margin plug. Base4%staff+3%wages. Capex100m with5year incremental depreciation.",
    "falsifier": "Hiring/wages,outside fees or premises cost exceed assumed base;see+500m sensitivity",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "annual_asset_capex",
    "economic_definition": "Fees to operating profit",
    "unit": "JPY million,fractions,years",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF7 recurringcost2297m;PDF12 D&A179m;H1-deck PDF2 staff116;supportfees171m",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": 100,
      "base": 100,
      "bull": 100
    },
    "supported_range": "Staff/wage combined7.12–9%;variable5–20%;support0–6%;capex50–200m;life3–7years",
    "rationale": "Historical costs separated into10%variablefee proxy and remaining fixedcashcost,not future margin plug. Base4%staff+3%wages. Capex100m with5year incremental depreciation.",
    "falsifier": "Hiring/wages,outside fees or premises cost exceed assumed base;see+500m sensitivity",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "asset_life_years",
    "economic_definition": "Fees to operating profit",
    "unit": "JPY million,fractions,years",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF7 recurringcost2297m;PDF12 D&A179m;H1-deck PDF2 staff116;supportfees171m",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": 5,
      "base": 5,
      "bull": 5
    },
    "supported_range": "Staff/wage combined7.12–9%;variable5–20%;support0–6%;capex50–200m;life3–7years",
    "rationale": "Historical costs separated into10%variablefee proxy and remaining fixedcashcost,not future margin plug. Base4%staff+3%wages. Capex100m with5year incremental depreciation.",
    "falsifier": "Hiring/wages,outside fees or premises cost exceed assumed base;see+500m sensitivity",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "principal_fv_return",
    "economic_definition": "Principal and GP asset sleeves",
    "unit": "JPY million,fraction/year",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF5 principal FV41900m;PDF9 total investment assets57293m;PDF12 investment flows",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": [
        -0.1,
        -0.1,
        0,
        0
      ],
      "base": [
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0
      ],
      "bull": [
        0.04,
        0.04,
        0.04,
        0.04
      ]
    },
    "supported_range": "Base no gains;bearinitial10%markdown;bull4%/year;capital returns0–6000m/year",
    "rationale": "Financial proxies at carrying value;principalcapital returns cannot exceed totalreturns;marks earn no cash until disposal. Incremental principalcapital1bn/year base.",
    "falsifier": "Portfolio marks,realizations or actual cash recycling differ materially",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "principal_calls",
    "economic_definition": "Principal and GP asset sleeves",
    "unit": "JPY million,fraction/year",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF5 principal FV41900m;PDF9 total investment assets57293m;PDF12 investment flows",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": [
        1000,
        1000,
        1000,
        1000
      ],
      "base": [
        1000,
        1000,
        1000,
        1000
      ],
      "bull": [
        1500,
        2000,
        2000,
        2000
      ]
    },
    "supported_range": "Base no gains;bearinitial10%markdown;bull4%/year;capital returns0–6000m/year",
    "rationale": "Financial proxies at carrying value;principalcapital returns cannot exceed totalreturns;marks earn no cash until disposal. Incremental principalcapital1bn/year base.",
    "falsifier": "Portfolio marks,realizations or actual cash recycling differ materially",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "principal_capital_return",
    "economic_definition": "Principal and GP asset sleeves",
    "unit": "JPY million,fraction/year",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF5 principal FV41900m;PDF9 total investment assets57293m;PDF12 investment flows",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": [
        500,
        1000,
        1500,
        2000
      ],
      "base": [
        1000,
        2000,
        3000,
        4000
      ],
      "bull": [
        1000,
        2000,
        3000,
        4000
      ]
    },
    "supported_range": "Base no gains;bearinitial10%markdown;bull4%/year;capital returns0–6000m/year",
    "rationale": "Financial proxies at carrying value;principalcapital returns cannot exceed totalreturns;marks earn no cash until disposal. Incremental principalcapital1bn/year base.",
    "falsifier": "Portfolio marks,realizations or actual cash recycling differ materially",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "investment_capital_return",
    "economic_definition": "Principal and GP asset sleeves",
    "unit": "JPY million,fraction/year",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF5 principal FV41900m;PDF9 total investment assets57293m;PDF12 investment flows",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": [
        500,
        1500,
        2000,
        2500
      ],
      "base": [
        1500,
        3000,
        4000,
        5000
      ],
      "bull": [
        2000,
        4000,
        5000,
        6000
      ]
    },
    "supported_range": "Base no gains;bearinitial10%markdown;bull4%/year;capital returns0–6000m/year",
    "rationale": "Financial proxies at carrying value;principalcapital returns cannot exceed totalreturns;marks earn no cash until disposal. Incremental principalcapital1bn/year base.",
    "falsifier": "Portfolio marks,realizations or actual cash recycling differ materially",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "opening_uncalled_existing_gp_proxy",
    "economic_definition": "GP commitment funding",
    "unit": "JPY million and callfractions",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF5 external fee base excludes GP2%;H1-deck PDF32 FundV over40%deployed;RE23.5bn",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": 3470,
      "base": 3470,
      "bull": 3470
    },
    "supported_range": "Existing uncalled balanceunknown:0–5470m;houseproxy3470m;newcall40–100%initial",
    "rationale": "3470m=FundV5000mGP*(1-40%)+REFundI470m. Draw ratios are not disclosed;this proxy is a funding assumption. NewGP2% of successorcommitments:40%firstyear then50%remaining/year.",
    "falsifier": "Actual GP commitment/call schedule differs;fullremaining obligations and instantaneouscallstress shown",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "existing_gp_calls",
    "economic_definition": "GP commitment funding",
    "unit": "JPY million and callfractions",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF5 external fee base excludes GP2%;H1-deck PDF32 FundV over40%deployed;RE23.5bn",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": [
        950,
        950,
        950,
        620
      ],
      "base": [
        950,
        950,
        950,
        620
      ],
      "bull": [
        950,
        950,
        950,
        620
      ]
    },
    "supported_range": "Existing uncalled balanceunknown:0–5470m;houseproxy3470m;newcall40–100%initial",
    "rationale": "3470m=FundV5000mGP*(1-40%)+REFundI470m. Draw ratios are not disclosed;this proxy is a funding assumption. NewGP2% of successorcommitments:40%firstyear then50%remaining/year.",
    "falsifier": "Actual GP commitment/call schedule differs;fullremaining obligations and instantaneouscallstress shown",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "new_gp_first_year_call_fraction",
    "economic_definition": "GP commitment funding",
    "unit": "JPY million and callfractions",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF5 external fee base excludes GP2%;H1-deck PDF32 FundV over40%deployed;RE23.5bn",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": 0.4,
      "base": 0.4,
      "bull": 0.4
    },
    "supported_range": "Existing uncalled balanceunknown:0–5470m;houseproxy3470m;newcall40–100%initial",
    "rationale": "3470m=FundV5000mGP*(1-40%)+REFundI470m. Draw ratios are not disclosed;this proxy is a funding assumption. NewGP2% of successorcommitments:40%firstyear then50%remaining/year.",
    "falsifier": "Actual GP commitment/call schedule differs;fullremaining obligations and instantaneouscallstress shown",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "new_gp_subsequent_call_fraction",
    "economic_definition": "GP commitment funding",
    "unit": "JPY million and callfractions",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF5 external fee base excludes GP2%;H1-deck PDF32 FundV over40%deployed;RE23.5bn",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": 0.5,
      "base": 0.5,
      "bull": 0.5
    },
    "supported_range": "Existing uncalled balanceunknown:0–5470m;houseproxy3470m;newcall40–100%initial",
    "rationale": "3470m=FundV5000mGP*(1-40%)+REFundI470m. Draw ratios are not disclosed;this proxy is a funding assumption. NewGP2% of successorcommitments:40%firstyear then50%remaining/year.",
    "falsifier": "Actual GP commitment/call schedule differs;fullremaining obligations and instantaneouscallstress shown",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "cash_interest_rate",
    "economic_definition": "Funding costs and liquidity",
    "unit": "JPY million and fractions/year",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF9–12 cash35794m,FV-subloans10001m,leaseprincipal115mH1",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": 0.004,
      "base": 0.004,
      "bull": 0.004
    },
    "supported_range": "Cashrate0–0.4%;newborrowing2.5–5%;mincash5000m;loansrepaidallH2",
    "rationale": "No committedcreditfacility assumed. OpeningFV-subfunding repaid,interest accrues before repayment. Any deficitcreatesexplicit conditionalborrowing and sameyearinterest.",
    "falsifier": "Loanrepayment,deposityield,creditaccess or leasecash differs",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "borrowing_rate",
    "economic_definition": "Funding costs and liquidity",
    "unit": "JPY million and fractions/year",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF9–12 cash35794m,FV-subloans10001m,leaseprincipal115mH1",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": 0.025,
      "base": 0.025,
      "bull": 0.025
    },
    "supported_range": "Cashrate0–0.4%;newborrowing2.5–5%;mincash5000m;loansrepaidallH2",
    "rationale": "No committedcreditfacility assumed. OpeningFV-subfunding repaid,interest accrues before repayment. Any deficitcreatesexplicit conditionalborrowing and sameyearinterest.",
    "falsifier": "Loanrepayment,deposityield,creditaccess or leasecash differs",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "lease_interest_annual",
    "economic_definition": "Funding costs and liquidity",
    "unit": "JPY million and fractions/year",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF9–12 cash35794m,FV-subloans10001m,leaseprincipal115mH1",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": 20,
      "base": 20,
      "bull": 20
    },
    "supported_range": "Cashrate0–0.4%;newborrowing2.5–5%;mincash5000m;loansrepaidallH2",
    "rationale": "No committedcreditfacility assumed. OpeningFV-subfunding repaid,interest accrues before repayment. Any deficitcreatesexplicit conditionalborrowing and sameyearinterest.",
    "falsifier": "Loanrepayment,deposityield,creditaccess or leasecash differs",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "minimum_cash",
    "economic_definition": "Funding costs and liquidity",
    "unit": "JPY million and fractions/year",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF9–12 cash35794m,FV-subloans10001m,leaseprincipal115mH1",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": 5000,
      "base": 5000,
      "bull": 5000
    },
    "supported_range": "Cashrate0–0.4%;newborrowing2.5–5%;mincash5000m;loansrepaidallH2",
    "rationale": "No committedcreditfacility assumed. OpeningFV-subfunding repaid,interest accrues before repayment. Any deficitcreatesexplicit conditionalborrowing and sameyearinterest.",
    "falsifier": "Loanrepayment,deposityield,creditaccess or leasecash differs",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "lease_principal_annual",
    "economic_definition": "Funding costs and liquidity",
    "unit": "JPY million and fractions/year",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF9–12 cash35794m,FV-subloans10001m,leaseprincipal115mH1",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": 230,
      "base": 230,
      "bull": 230
    },
    "supported_range": "Cashrate0–0.4%;newborrowing2.5–5%;mincash5000m;loansrepaidallH2",
    "rationale": "No committedcreditfacility assumed. OpeningFV-subfunding repaid,interest accrues before repayment. Any deficitcreatesexplicit conditionalborrowing and sameyearinterest.",
    "falsifier": "Loanrepayment,deposityield,creditaccess or leasecash differs",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "fee_receivable_days",
    "economic_definition": "Working capital",
    "unit": "Days and months",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF9–10 receivables2796m and feeadvances1783m;H1filing PDF25 quarterlyprepayment",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": 45,
      "base": 45,
      "bull": 45
    },
    "supported_range": "FeeDSO30–90days;advances0–3months",
    "rationale": "45dayfeeproxy;25%carry unpaidbase;openingreceivablesrecoveredthroughroll,not a second carryreceipt. Quarterlyfeesprepaid.",
    "falsifier": "Carrycash remains outstanding or customers stop advancingfees",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "advance_months",
    "economic_definition": "Working capital",
    "unit": "Days and months",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF9–10 receivables2796m and feeadvances1783m;H1filing PDF25 quarterlyprepayment",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": 3,
      "base": 3,
      "bull": 3
    },
    "supported_range": "FeeDSO30–90days;advances0–3months",
    "rationale": "45dayfeeproxy;25%carry unpaidbase;openingreceivablesrecoveredthroughroll,not a second carryreceipt. Quarterlyfeesprepaid.",
    "falsifier": "Carrycash remains outstanding or customers stop advancingfees",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "tax_rate",
    "economic_definition": "Parent earnings and retained equity",
    "unit": "Fractions,shares",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF7 tax3886/PBT12674=30.66%;parent/NCI8766/22m;H1filing PDF26 options784484;deckPDF19 DOE2%",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": 0.306,
      "base": 0.306,
      "bull": 0.306
    },
    "supported_range": "Tax30.6–35%;NCIdouble sensitivity possible;shares0–2%annual dilution;DOE2%",
    "rationale": "Tax30.6%;NCIobserved22mH1 scales3%base;not an entityownership forecast. Basicshares34066976heldflat;dilutedadds784484. Dividends2%opening equity,withknown630mH226.",
    "falsifier": "Taxallocation,subsidiaryNCI,grossshares,optionexercise or dividends differ",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "nci_growth",
    "economic_definition": "Parent earnings and retained equity",
    "unit": "Fractions,shares",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF7 tax3886/PBT12674=30.66%;parent/NCI8766/22m;H1filing PDF26 options784484;deckPDF19 DOE2%",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": 0.03,
      "base": 0.03,
      "bull": 0.03
    },
    "supported_range": "Tax30.6–35%;NCIdouble sensitivity possible;shares0–2%annual dilution;DOE2%",
    "rationale": "Tax30.6%;NCIobserved22mH1 scales3%base;not an entityownership forecast. Basicshares34066976heldflat;dilutedadds784484. Dividends2%opening equity,withknown630mH226.",
    "falsifier": "Taxallocation,subsidiaryNCI,grossshares,optionexercise or dividends differ",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "annual_share_dilution",
    "economic_definition": "Parent earnings and retained equity",
    "unit": "Fractions,shares",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF7 tax3886/PBT12674=30.66%;parent/NCI8766/22m;H1filing PDF26 options784484;deckPDF19 DOE2%",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": 0,
      "base": 0,
      "bull": 0
    },
    "supported_range": "Tax30.6–35%;NCIdouble sensitivity possible;shares0–2%annual dilution;DOE2%",
    "rationale": "Tax30.6%;NCIobserved22mH1 scales3%base;not an entityownership forecast. Basicshares34066976heldflat;dilutedadds784484. Dividends2%opening equity,withknown630mH226.",
    "falsifier": "Taxallocation,subsidiaryNCI,grossshares,optionexercise or dividends differ",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  },
  {
    "id": "dividend_doe",
    "economic_definition": "Parent earnings and retained equity",
    "unit": "Fractions,shares",
    "type": "house assumption (observed anchor separately identified)",
    "source_anchor": "H1-results PDF7 tax3886/PBT12674=30.66%;parent/NCI8766/22m;H1filing PDF26 options784484;deckPDF19 DOE2%",
    "scenario_values": {
      "bear": 0.02,
      "base": 0.02,
      "bull": 0.02
    },
    "supported_range": "Tax30.6–35%;NCIdouble sensitivity possible;shares0–2%annual dilution;DOE2%",
    "rationale": "Tax30.6%;NCIobserved22mH1 scales3%base;not an entityownership forecast. Basicshares34066976heldflat;dilutedadds784484. Dividends2%opening equity,withknown630mH226.",
    "falsifier": "Taxallocation,subsidiaryNCI,grossshares,optionexercise or dividends differ",
    "linked_outputs": "annual fee/total earnings,EPS,cash,debt,investment/capital and sensitivities"
  }
]