{
  "version": "JII-6184-2026-11-04-v1",
  "cutoff": "2026-11-04",
  "growth": {
    "graves": [
      0.1,
      0.09,
      0.08,
      0.07
    ],
    "funeral": [
      0.18,
      0.16,
      0.14,
      0.12
    ],
    "inheritance": [
      0.08,
      0.12,
      0.12,
      0.1
    ],
    "care": [
      0.35,
      0.3,
      0.25,
      0.2
    ],
    "municipal": [
      0.28,
      0.23,
      0.2,
      0.18
    ],
    "insurance": [
      0.04,
      0.06,
      0.055,
      0.05
    ],
    "other": [
      0,
      0.05,
      0.05,
      0.05
    ]
  },
  "scenario_growth_spread": {
    "graves": 0.04,
    "funeral": 0.06,
    "inheritance": 0.08,
    "care": 0.1,
    "municipal": 0.1,
    "insurance": 0.03,
    "other": 0.05
  },
  "wage_inflation": 0.03,
  "other_cost_inflation": 0.02,
  "other_cost_elasticity": 0.6,
  "staff_mix_response": 1.0,
  "staff_elasticity_cap": 0.75,
  "ad_intensity_annual_change": 0.0,
  "capex": [
    600,
    650,
    700,
    750
  ],
  "prepaid_spend": [
    35,
    35,
    35,
    35
  ],
  "software_share": 0.9,
  "software_life": 5,
  "ppe_life": 8,
  "prepaid_life": 3,
  "cip_commission_h2_fraction": 1.0,
  "legacy_da_annual": 311.942,
  "goodwill_amort_annual": 80.894,
  "sbc_annual": [
    50,
    50,
    50,
    50
  ],
  "tax_rate": 0.315,
  "nondeductible_goodwill_fraction": 1.0,
  "cash_yield": 0.003,
  "existing_debt_rate": 0.01,
  "new_debt_rate": 0.03,
  "other_nonoperating_cost_annual": 10.0,
  "dividend_per_share": 20.0,
  "minority_loss_scale": 1.0,
  "new_ma": 0,
  "buybacks": 0,
  "option_cash_proceeds": 0,
  "working_capital_days_add": 0.0,
  "additional_funding_requirement_only": true,
  "sensitivity_nci_profit": [
    0,
    60
  ],
  "register": [
    {
      "id": "revenue_graves",
      "type": "JII assumption",
      "unit": "nominal revenue growth, fraction",
      "definition": "First value applies only to unreported H2 versus prior H2; later values are annual growth.",
      "values": [
        0.1,
        0.09,
        0.08,
        0.07
      ],
      "anchor": "H1 sales+11.3%; Q2+9.3%, closings+2.3%, business profit−8.8%.",
      "basis": "Mature network; growth fades without assuming a fresh acquisition.",
      "sources": "H1deck pp6,14",
      "range": "Bear/base/bull paths in assumptions.json; judgment ranges, not confidence intervals.",
      "falsifier": "Closings/realized fees fall or acquisition costs rise.",
      "outputs": [
        "business revenue",
        "group sales",
        "OP",
        "EPS",
        "cash"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "revenue_funeral",
      "type": "JII assumption",
      "unit": "nominal revenue growth, fraction",
      "definition": "First value applies only to unreported H2 versus prior H2; later values are annual growth.",
      "values": [
        0.18,
        0.16,
        0.14,
        0.12
      ],
      "anchor": "H1+20.8%; Q2+20.9%, realized unit fee+12.8%.",
      "basis": "Continued referrals and fee/mix gains, fading as comparisons strengthen.",
      "sources": "H1deck pp6,15",
      "range": "Bear/base/bull paths in assumptions.json; judgment ranges, not confidence intervals.",
      "falsifier": "Completed referrals or realized fees stop growing.",
      "outputs": [
        "business revenue",
        "group sales",
        "OP",
        "EPS",
        "cash"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "revenue_inheritance",
      "type": "JII assumption",
      "unit": "nominal revenue growth, fraction",
      "definition": "First value applies only to unreported H2 versus prior H2; later values are annual growth.",
      "values": [
        0.08,
        0.12,
        0.12,
        0.1
      ],
      "anchor": "FY26−16.3%; H1+3.0%; Q2 closings+9.5%.",
      "basis": "Partial recovery through existing families; no restoration to the old peak by assumption.",
      "sources": "FY26deck p11; H1deck pp6,16",
      "range": "Bear/base/bull paths in assumptions.json; judgment ranges, not confidence intervals.",
      "falsifier": "Recovery in closings fails to become recognized fee revenue.",
      "outputs": [
        "business revenue",
        "group sales",
        "OP",
        "EPS",
        "cash"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "revenue_care",
      "type": "JII assumption",
      "unit": "nominal revenue growth, fraction",
      "definition": "First value applies only to unreported H2 versus prior H2; later values are annual growth.",
      "values": [
        0.35,
        0.3,
        0.25,
        0.2
      ],
      "anchor": "H1+59.2%; Q2 closings+30.5%; offline share42.1%.",
      "basis": "Hiring and offline access support growth; substantial deceleration preserves staffing constraints.",
      "sources": "H1deck pp6,17,24",
      "range": "Bear/base/bull paths in assumptions.json; judgment ranges, not confidence intervals.",
      "falsifier": "Staffing, referrals or conversion fail to support growth.",
      "outputs": [
        "business revenue",
        "group sales",
        "OP",
        "EPS",
        "cash"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "revenue_municipal",
      "type": "JII assumption",
      "unit": "nominal revenue growth, fraction",
      "definition": "First value applies only to unreported H2 versus prior H2; later values are annual growth.",
      "values": [
        0.28,
        0.23,
        0.2,
        0.18
      ],
      "anchor": "H1+34.1%; Q2+51.1%;543 partner municipalities.",
      "basis": "Publishing/support contracts expand; partnerships are not multiplied by a fabricated fee.",
      "sources": "H1deck pp6,18,24",
      "range": "Bear/base/bull paths in assumptions.json; judgment ranges, not confidence intervals.",
      "falsifier": "Municipality coverage grows without paid projects or advertising sales.",
      "outputs": [
        "business revenue",
        "group sales",
        "OP",
        "EPS",
        "cash"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "revenue_insurance",
      "type": "JII assumption",
      "unit": "nominal revenue growth, fraction",
      "definition": "First value applies only to unreported H2 versus prior H2; later values are annual growth.",
      "values": [
        0.04,
        0.06,
        0.055,
        0.05
      ],
      "anchor": "H1+4.9%; FY26 growth includes full-year consolidation.",
      "basis": "Modest organic premium growth; no repeat of acquisition uplift.",
      "sources": "H1deck p6; Bell pp11–12",
      "range": "Bear/base/bull paths in assumptions.json; judgment ranges, not confidence intervals.",
      "falsifier": "Policy retention or underwriting costs deteriorate.",
      "outputs": [
        "business revenue",
        "group sales",
        "OP",
        "EPS",
        "cash"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "revenue_other",
      "type": "JII assumption",
      "unit": "nominal revenue growth, fraction",
      "definition": "First value applies only to unreported H2 versus prior H2; later values are annual growth.",
      "values": [
        0,
        0.05,
        0.05,
        0.05
      ],
      "anchor": "H1−34.0%; mixed new and legacy services.",
      "basis": "Prior H2 held flat, then5% growth; no assumed real-estate sale or future M&A windfall.",
      "sources": "H1deck p6; FY26deck p11",
      "range": "Bear/base/bull paths in assumptions.json; judgment ranges, not confidence intervals.",
      "falsifier": "New services fail to replace declining legacy sales.",
      "outputs": [
        "business revenue",
        "group sales",
        "OP",
        "EPS",
        "cash"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "advertising",
      "type": "JII assumption",
      "values": "Flat intensity on all noninsurance revenue",
      "unit": "cost/revenue",
      "anchor": "H1 advertising897.167m vs772.583m; broad noninsurance revenue grew about15.7%.",
      "basis": "Observed current intensity/seasonal ratios; care and municipal acquisition are not made free. No incremental AI saving is booked.",
      "sources": "Annual p64; half-year p16; H1deck p7",
      "falsifier": "Ad spend rises faster than paid noninsurance services.",
      "range": "Intensity±10%; bear+5%, bull−2%."
    },
    {
      "id": "personnel",
      "type": "JII assumption",
      "values": "3% wages + inflation-stripped observed staffing elasticity, increasing with care/municipal mix",
      "unit": "expense growth",
      "anchor": "H1 personnel1445m vs1333m; latest quarter730m. Observed staffing elasticity is calculated, not chosen to make OP.",
      "basis": "Unreported H2 cost has a two-quarter730m run-rate floor. Later staffing response scales with care/municipal mix; cap0.75.",
      "sources": "FY26deck p8; H1deck pp7,24",
      "falsifier": "Growth requires more staff or wage increases than this response supports.",
      "range": "Wage2–5%; elasticity sensitivity to1.0."
    },
    {
      "id": "other_operating_costs",
      "type": "JII assumption",
      "values": 0.6,
      "unit": "incremental nominal activity elasticity, before2% inflation",
      "anchor": "Reconciled H1 residual1258.010m vs1184.701m, excluding observed personnel, ads, DA and goodwill.",
      "basis": "0.60 is above the inflation-stripped H1 response (~0.28); reserve releases and favorable mix are not extrapolated as permanent savings.",
      "sources": "Annual pp53,57,64; half-year pp12,14,16",
      "falsifier": "Printing, outsourcing, insurance/guarantee costs rise with sales faster than assumed.",
      "range": "0.30–1.00; mix response and wage stress separately tested."
    },
    {
      "id": "investment",
      "type": "JII assumption",
      "values": {
        "capex": [
          600,
          650,
          700,
          750
        ],
        "prepaid_spend": [
          35,
          35,
          35,
          35
        ]
      },
      "unit": "JPY million",
      "anchor": "FY26PPE/software cash480.296m; H1cash277.586m; software-in-progress302.486m.",
      "basis": "Retain original rising platform budget;90%software/10%PPE is a house mix. Existing CIP is commissioned separately and never counted again as new cash capex.",
      "sources": "Annual pp51,57,59; half-year pp10,14",
      "falsifier": "Investment fails to support service volume or commissioning is delayed.",
      "range": "Capex−10%/+25%; software life3–7years; CIP1year delay."
    },
    {
      "id": "tax",
      "type": "JII assumption",
      "values": {
        "rate": 0.315,
        "goodwill_nondeductible": 1.0
      },
      "unit": "fraction",
      "anchor": "FY26 tax362.739m/PBT1121.674m; H1tax250.666m/PBT804.246m.",
      "basis": "Prospective group rate31.5% before full goodwill nondeductibility; no new loss-tax credits. Observed H1 tax remains actual.",
      "sources": "Annual p53; half-year p12",
      "falsifier": "Effective tax or deductibility differs.",
      "range": "Rate+5pp; goodwill0–100% nondeductible."
    },
    {
      "id": "minorities",
      "type": "JII assumption",
      "values": "Entity-specific recurring loss proxies; H1actual22.165m retained",
      "unit": "JPY million",
      "anchor": "Bell ordinaryPBT−11.090m, with special gains excluded; HouseBoat NI−14.217739m. Parent ownership71.6%/50.2%.",
      "basis": "Loss exposures scale only with their own insurance/grave revenue; no new loss-tax benefit. Differing fiscal dates/PPA leave a consolidation uncertainty, bounded explicitly.",
      "sources": "Bell pp6,11,20; HouseBoat p2; annual p7; half-year p12",
      "falsifier": "Subsidiaries turn profitable or reserve/PPA effects change the nonparent claim.",
      "range": "Future annual NCI0–60m stress; actual H1 is never overwritten."
    },
    {
      "id": "shares_returns",
      "type": "JII assumption",
      "values": {
        "basic_shares": 41194972,
        "identified_options": 1737500,
        "dps": 20
      },
      "unit": "shares; JPY/share",
      "anchor": "H1 weighted basic shares41194972; full identified option overhang1737500; FY27 announced DPS20.",
      "basis": "Future20yen dividends are JII assumptions. No unexecuted buyback, issuance, acquisition or option proceeds. Full option overhang is an economic sensitivity, not GAAP diluted EPS.",
      "sources": "Half-year pp18,21; annual option notes; May21option notice",
      "falsifier": "Actual capital actions or dividend policy change.",
      "range": "Shares±5%; dividends0–20yen."
    },
    {
      "id": "cash_conversion",
      "type": "JII assumption",
      "values": "Receivables, inventory/prepaids, payables/advances and insurance reserves roll from July balances",
      "unit": "balance/revenue ratios",
      "anchor": "July cash3614.481m; H1CFO473.020m; receivables1390.447m and insurance reserves217.624m.",
      "basis": "Receivables and operating balances scale with relevant sales; guarantee provision held flat, so no repeated reserve release. Cash taxes approximate future expense. Debt maturity assumptions are separate.",
      "sources": "Half-year pp10–15",
      "falsifier": "Collection slows, provisions require cash, or cash is unavailable outside regulated entities.",
      "range": "Receivable days+15; capex+25%; full NCI claim60m; funding stress."
    }
  ]
}