{ "company": "TakaokaToko6617", "date": "2026-11-03", "entries": [ { "id": "advance_days", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "workingcapital", "definition": "advance days", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 6, "base": 7.8, "bull": 10 }, "observed_anchor": "Septrade/notes/contract/electronicAR19894;inventory31710;AP9737;contractadvances3935;bonus2401. FY26ARdays85.4/inventory124/AP55.2/advances7.8.", "source_locators": [ "financial/tktk_latest_result.pdf PDF7–11", "financial/FINANCIAL_ACTUALS_AND_COMMITMENTS.json" ], "mechanism": "Rollallmaterialreceivable/inventory/payable/advanceaccountswithannualsalesorconstantactivity-costproxy;bonus/DTAseparate;legacyotherCLfundingtimingexplicit.", "base_reason": "Year-enddaysanchoredMaractualratherthanextrapolatingseasonalSep;propertydepositneverordinaryWC. 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Newmeteringequipment1626plannedSep26.", "source_locators": [ "financial/tktk_yuho_2026.pdf PDF29–30,77,80,103", "audit/capital_schedule_review/REFINED_CAPITAL_REVIEW.json" ], "mechanism": "Post-Sepcapitalonly;namedHasudaspendinginsidebudget,unallocatedCIPexplicit;DAbycommission/life. Preserveopeningland/CIPfromlegacyamortization.", "base_reason": "6.5/7.5/7/6.5bnannualcashbudgetsremainhouseunderwriting,notcopyof33bnMTPwhichincludesR&D. Current2×H1DAisrun-rateproxy,notknownfullyearforecast. FlatlegacyDAavoidsunsupported4%automaticbenefit;runoffandlatecommissionstressesretained.", "supported_bounds": "Casecapitalbudgets;extra2bn/year;legacy−4%/+5%;736unallocatedCIPtiming. FutureSLlivesareeconomicproxiesnotstatutorycertainty.", "falsifier": "Projectcash/creditors,invoicevsbookadditions,assetregister,lives/commissioninganddomesticdecliningbalanceproduceotherDA.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "years" }, { "id": "borrow_average_fraction", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "finance", "definition": "borrow average fraction", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 0.5, "base": 0.5, "bull": 0.5 }, "observed_anchor": "Sepbank1880+lease21;LTschedule300/600/600/0remaining. BankSTrate1%,LT1.17%observedMar. 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PriorH2sales36430. No quantified whole-power nameplate;Oyamaearly2030s.", "source_locators": [ "financial/FINANCIAL_ACTUALS_AND_COMMITMENTS.json/orders_backlog_actuals", "operating/OPERATING_CLAIM_REGISTER.json" ], "mechanism": "Nominalneworderactivity andold/newdelivery jointlygeneratefixed-pricecohortshipments within constant-valuefinancialthroughput.", "base_reason": "Retain moderateorderpath: H2intake36000 only+2.5%versuspriorH2; annualnominalgrowth4.5%. Current6%/later4.5%resourcegrowthareexplicitfinancialplanningceilings,notmeasuredphysicalunits.", "supported_bounds": "Operationalcaseenvelopesplus0%capacitygrowthandneworderflatstress;notconfidenceintervals.", "falsifier": "Delivery/acceptancecalendar, staff/testingconstraints orprice-costevidence fails; throughputorbookingsbelowpath.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "fraction / annual rate; see segment or fiscal axis" }, { "id": "capex", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "capital", "definition": "capex", "axis": [ "2027-03-31", "2028-03-31", "2029-03-31", "2030-03-31" ], "values": { "bear": [ 6200, 7000, 6800, 6500 ], "base": [ 6500, 7500, 7000, 6500 ], "bull": [ 7000, 8500, 8500, 8000 ] }, "observed_anchor": "FY26cashCAPEX6036vsbookadditions6248;H1paid2546/CIP1049. 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Hasuda1610budget,313paidMar26;Jun27completion/Oct27operation. Newmeteringequipment1626plannedSep26.", "source_locators": [ "financial/tktk_yuho_2026.pdf PDF29–30,77,80,103", "audit/capital_schedule_review/REFINED_CAPITAL_REVIEW.json" ], "mechanism": "Post-Sepcapitalonly;namedHasudaspendinginsidebudget,unallocatedCIPexplicit;DAbycommission/life. Preserveopeningland/CIPfromlegacyamortization.", "base_reason": "6.5/7.5/7/6.5bnannualcashbudgetsremainhouseunderwriting,notcopyof33bnMTPwhichincludesR&D. Current2×H1DAisrun-rateproxy,notknownfullyearforecast. FlatlegacyDAavoidsunsupported4%automaticbenefit;runoffandlatecommissionstressesretained.", "supported_bounds": "Casecapitalbudgets;extra2bn/year;legacy−4%/+5%;736unallocatedCIPtiming. 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ATS25%/Decyearend;individualbookundisclosed.", "source_locators": [ "financial/PROPERTY_AND_INVESTMENT_SCOPE_AUDIT.json", "financial/tktk_yuho_2026.pdf PDF7,77,79,83" ], "mechanism": "ProfitentersPBTafterentitytax;cashdistributionseparateandreducesinvestmentcarrying,notnewincome;onlyidentifiedheldamountchanges.", "base_reason": "Annual121holdand50%distributionareboundedhousejudgments;othercashnonop50+datedcashinterestkeptseparate. No applyingATSreturntowhole1788securities.", "supported_bounds": "Distribution0–100%,nonop50baselinevsannual/currenthalfobservedrange;notallprofitiscash.", "falsifier": "ATSfinancials,distribution/timingorroyalty/FX/othernonopchanges.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "fraction / annual rate; see segment or fiscal axis" }, { "id": "contractual_lt_repayment", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "finance", "definition": "contractual lt repayment", "axis": [ "2027-03-31", "2028-03-31", "2029-03-31", "2030-03-31" ], "values": { "bear": [ 300, 600, 600, 0 ], "base": [ 300, 600, 600, 0 ], "bull": [ 300, 600, 600, 0 ] }, "observed_anchor": "Sepbank1880+lease21;LTschedule300/600/600/0remaining. BankSTrate1%,LT1.17%observedMar. CCE19135includes8000currentsecuritiesonce.", "source_locators": [ "financial/DEBT_MATURITIES_AND_CAPEX_CREDITORS.json", "financial/tktk_latest_result.pdf PDF7–11" ], "mechanism": "Repaydatedcontractualprincipal,chargeexisting/newdrawinterestandcashdistributions;newdrawsolvescashshortfallsubjecthouseplanningcap;noneclaimedcommitted.", "base_reason": "Baseusesnofreshborrowing.8bnminimumisplanningbuffer,notcovenant.25bncreditlimitisanalystscenarioceiling,notavailablefacility;bearrequirementisuncommittedfinancing.", "supported_bounds": "Existingratesstep20bp/yearbase;newdraw2.5%/3.5%bear;borrowingunavailablestress;no negativecash/debtaccepted.", "falsifier": "Bank/refinancingterms,newborrowingpermissions,interestratesorliquiditytimingdiffer.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "JPY million; annual amounts except first post-Sep forecast-period inputs" }, { "id": "contribution", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "cost", "definition": "contribution", "axis": [ "power", "meter", "GX", "optical" ], "values": { "bear": [ 0.35, 0.4, 0.3, 0.5 ], "base": [ 0.35, 0.4, 0.3, 0.5 ], "bull": [ 0.35, 0.4, 0.3, 0.5 ] }, "observed_anchor": "FY26externalS/segmentOP/DA,latestH1andpriorH1costseasonality;manufacturingunitcostcurvesundisclosed.", "source_locators": [ "financial/FINANCIAL_ACTUALS_AND_COMMITMENTS.json/segment_actuals", "financial/tktk_yuho_2026.pdf PDF28,68,102–103" ], "mechanism": "Affinevariable/fixedcashcostcalibrationreproducesactualsegmentprofit;prices,inputinflation,staffelasticityandDAproducefuturemargins.", "base_reason": "Contribution35/40/30/50%arehistoricalfinancialdecompositions(netinternalallocations),notdisclosedproductunitmargins.3%cashfixedinflationcoverswage/R&Dpressurealreadyinactuals.", "supported_bounds": "Casecostpaths;1ppinputinflation, alternativehistoricaldecompositions;fixedvaluesarenotempiricallyestimatedconfidencebounds.", "falsifier": "Incrementalmargins, payroll, R&D,qualitycostoroutsourcingdepartsfrompool.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "fraction / annual rate; see segment or fiscal axis" }, { "id": "corp_cash_inflation", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "corporate", "definition": "corp cash inflation", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 0.04, "base": 0.03, "bull": 0.025 }, "observed_anchor": "CurrentH1central3121/prior2710;FY26central5639;neteliminationsH1−50. CommonR&D485alreadyexpensed.", "source_locators": [ "financial/tktk_latest_result.pdf PDF12–13", "financial/tktk_yuho_2026.pdf PDF28,103" ], "mechanism": "LockactualH1;infercashcostwithnamedhistoricaltransfer/DAproxyandpriorhalfseasonality;inflatecashprograms;addDAandneteliminationsonce.", "base_reason": "No residualtohitmanagement11bnOP. Transfer350m ispresentationjudgmentrange0–800andmustconservegroupOP; futureincrementalprogram100/200/300namedplanningallowance.", "supported_bounds": "3–4%inflationcases;0–800transferisclassificationrange,notgroupcostupside;cashprogramsboundedcasepaths.", "falsifier": "Functionalheadcount/R&Dprogram/allocationdisclosuresshowdifferentrecurringcostscope.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "fraction / annual rate; see segment or fiscal axis" }, { "id": "corp_incremental_program", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "corporate", "definition": "corp incremental program", "axis": [ "2027-03-31", "2028-03-31", "2029-03-31", "2030-03-31" ], "values": { "bear": [ 100, 250, 400, 550 ], "base": [ 0, 100, 200, 300 ], "bull": [ 0, 150, 300, 450 ] }, "observed_anchor": "CurrentH1central3121/prior2710;FY26central5639;neteliminationsH1−50. CommonR&D485alreadyexpensed.", "source_locators": [ "financial/tktk_latest_result.pdf PDF12–13", "financial/tktk_yuho_2026.pdf PDF28,103" ], "mechanism": "LockactualH1;infercashcostwithnamedhistoricaltransfer/DAproxyandpriorhalfseasonality;inflatecashprograms;addDAandneteliminationsonce.", "base_reason": "No residualtohitmanagement11bnOP. Transfer350m ispresentationjudgmentrange0–800andmustconservegroupOP; futureincrementalprogram100/200/300namedplanningallowance.", "supported_bounds": "3–4%inflationcases;0–800transferisclassificationrange,notgroupcostupside;cashprogramsboundedcasepaths.", "falsifier": "Functionalheadcount/R&Dprogram/allocationdisclosuresshowdifferentrecurringcostscope.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "JPY million; annual amounts except first post-Sep forecast-period inputs" }, { "id": "draw_interest_rate", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "finance", "definition": "draw interest rate", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 0.035, "base": 0.025, "bull": 0.025 }, "observed_anchor": "Sepbank1880+lease21;LTschedule300/600/600/0remaining. BankSTrate1%,LT1.17%observedMar. CCE19135includes8000currentsecuritiesonce.", "source_locators": [ "financial/DEBT_MATURITIES_AND_CAPEX_CREDITORS.json", "financial/tktk_latest_result.pdf PDF7–11" ], "mechanism": "Repaydatedcontractualprincipal,chargeexisting/newdrawinterestandcashdistributions;newdrawsolvescashshortfallsubjecthouseplanningcap;noneclaimedcommitted.", "base_reason": "Baseusesnofreshborrowing.8bnminimumisplanningbuffer,notcovenant.25bncreditlimitisanalystscenarioceiling,notavailablefacility;bearrequirementisuncommittedfinancing.", "supported_bounds": "Existingratesstep20bp/yearbase;newdraw2.5%/3.5%bear;borrowingunavailablestress;no negativecash/debtaccepted.", "falsifier": "Bank/refinancingterms,newborrowingpermissions,interestratesorliquiditytimingdiffer.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "fraction / annual rate; see segment or fiscal axis" }, { "id": "equity_method_cash_distribution_fraction", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "equitymethod", "definition": "equity method cash distribution fraction", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 0.5, "base": 0.5, "bull": 0.5 }, "observed_anchor": "FY26equitymethodprofit121,H166;FY26CFinterest/div192versusPL158,H1CF134versusPL42. ATS25%/Decyearend;individualbookundisclosed.", "source_locators": [ "financial/PROPERTY_AND_INVESTMENT_SCOPE_AUDIT.json", "financial/tktk_yuho_2026.pdf PDF7,77,79,83" ], "mechanism": "ProfitentersPBTafterentitytax;cashdistributionseparateandreducesinvestmentcarrying,notnewincome;onlyidentifiedheldamountchanges.", "base_reason": "Annual121holdand50%distributionareboundedhousejudgments;othercashnonop50+datedcashinterestkeptseparate. No applyingATSreturntowhole1788securities.", "supported_bounds": "Distribution0–100%,nonop50baselinevsannual/currenthalfobservedrange;notallprofitiscash.", "falsifier": "ATSfinancials,distribution/timingorroyalty/FX/othernonopchanges.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "fraction / annual rate; see segment or fiscal axis" }, { "id": "equity_method_profit_annual", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "equitymethod", "definition": "equity method profit annual", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 121.0, "base": 121.0, "bull": 121.0 }, "observed_anchor": "FY26equitymethodprofit121,H166;FY26CFinterest/div192versusPL158,H1CF134versusPL42. ATS25%/Decyearend;individualbookundisclosed.", "source_locators": [ "financial/PROPERTY_AND_INVESTMENT_SCOPE_AUDIT.json", "financial/tktk_yuho_2026.pdf PDF7,77,79,83" ], "mechanism": "ProfitentersPBTafterentitytax;cashdistributionseparateandreducesinvestmentcarrying,notnewincome;onlyidentifiedheldamountchanges.", "base_reason": "Annual121holdand50%distributionareboundedhousejudgments;othercashnonop50+datedcashinterestkeptseparate. No applyingATSreturntowhole1788securities.", "supported_bounds": "Distribution0–100%,nonop50baselinevsannual/currenthalfobservedrange;notallprofitiscash.", "falsifier": "ATSfinancials,distribution/timingorroyalty/FX/othernonopchanges.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "JPY million; annual amounts except first post-Sep forecast-period inputs" }, { "id": "existing_long_bank_rate", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "finance", "definition": "existing long bank rate", "axis": [ "2027-03-31", "2028-03-31", "2029-03-31", "2030-03-31" ], "values": { "bear": [ 0.017, 0.02, 0.022, 0.024 ], "base": [ 0.0117, 0.0137, 0.0157, 0.0177 ], "bull": [ 0.0117, 0.0137, 0.0157, 0.0177 ] }, "observed_anchor": "Sepbank1880+lease21;LTschedule300/600/600/0remaining. BankSTrate1%,LT1.17%observedMar. CCE19135includes8000currentsecuritiesonce.", "source_locators": [ "financial/DEBT_MATURITIES_AND_CAPEX_CREDITORS.json", "financial/tktk_latest_result.pdf PDF7–11" ], "mechanism": "Repaydatedcontractualprincipal,chargeexisting/newdrawinterestandcashdistributions;newdrawsolvescashshortfallsubjecthouseplanningcap;noneclaimedcommitted.", "base_reason": "Baseusesnofreshborrowing.8bnminimumisplanningbuffer,notcovenant.25bncreditlimitisanalystscenarioceiling,notavailablefacility;bearrequirementisuncommittedfinancing.", "supported_bounds": "Existingratesstep20bp/yearbase;newdraw2.5%/3.5%bear;borrowingunavailablestress;no negativecash/debtaccepted.", "falsifier": "Bank/refinancingterms,newborrowingpermissions,interestratesorliquiditytimingdiffer.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "fraction / annual rate; see segment or fiscal axis" }, { "id": "existing_short_bank_rate", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "finance", "definition": "existing short bank rate", "axis": [ "2027-03-31", "2028-03-31", "2029-03-31", "2030-03-31" ], "values": { "bear": [ 0.015, 0.018, 0.02, 0.022 ], "base": [ 0.01, 0.012, 0.014, 0.016 ], "bull": [ 0.01, 0.012, 0.014, 0.016 ] }, "observed_anchor": "Sepbank1880+lease21;LTschedule300/600/600/0remaining. BankSTrate1%,LT1.17%observedMar. CCE19135includes8000currentsecuritiesonce.", "source_locators": [ "financial/DEBT_MATURITIES_AND_CAPEX_CREDITORS.json", "financial/tktk_latest_result.pdf PDF7–11" ], "mechanism": "Repaydatedcontractualprincipal,chargeexisting/newdrawinterestandcashdistributions;newdrawsolvescashshortfallsubjecthouseplanningcap;noneclaimedcommitted.", "base_reason": "Baseusesnofreshborrowing.8bnminimumisplanningbuffer,notcovenant.25bncreditlimitisanalystscenarioceiling,notavailablefacility;bearrequirementisuncommittedfinancing.", "supported_bounds": "Existingratesstep20bp/yearbase;newdraw2.5%/3.5%bear;borrowingunavailablestress;no negativecash/debtaccepted.", "falsifier": "Bank/refinancingterms,newborrowingpermissions,interestratesorliquiditytimingdiffer.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "fraction / annual rate; see segment or fiscal axis" }, { "id": "fixed_inflation", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "cost", "definition": "fixed inflation", "axis": [ "power", "meter", "GX", "optical" ], "values": { "bear": [ 0.04, 0.04, 0.04, 0.04 ], "base": [ 0.03, 0.03, 0.03, 0.035 ], "bull": [ 0.025, 0.025, 0.025, 0.03 ] }, "observed_anchor": "FY26externalS/segmentOP/DA,latestH1andpriorH1costseasonality;manufacturingunitcostcurvesundisclosed.", "source_locators": [ "financial/FINANCIAL_ACTUALS_AND_COMMITMENTS.json/segment_actuals", "financial/tktk_yuho_2026.pdf PDF28,68,102–103" ], "mechanism": "Affinevariable/fixedcashcostcalibrationreproducesactualsegmentprofit;prices,inputinflation,staffelasticityandDAproducefuturemargins.", "base_reason": "Contribution35/40/30/50%arehistoricalfinancialdecompositions(netinternalallocations),notdisclosedproductunitmargins.3%cashfixedinflationcoverswage/R&Dpressurealreadyinactuals.", "supported_bounds": "Casecostpaths;1ppinputinflation, alternativehistoricaldecompositions;fixedvaluesarenotempiricallyestimatedconfidencebounds.", "falsifier": "Incrementalmargins, payroll, R&D,qualitycostoroutsourcingdepartsfrompool.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "fraction / annual rate; see segment or fiscal axis" }, { "id": "future_nci_payout", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "jv", "definition": "future nci payout", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 0.65, "base": 0.65, "bull": 0.65 }, "observed_anchor": "TTMS51%owned;FY26externalS20833,ordinary1770,net1259;49%NI616.91ofgroupNCI626. 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H2baseusespreviousNCIseasonality,actualcurrentH1locked.", "supported_bounds": "Capture7–15%;DAshare0–1;loss-sharing/entitytaxmutations;65%priorNCIcashpayoutnotlegalpromise.", "falsifier": "Entityaccounts/component-vsassemblyprofit,JVDAorToshibadividendsshowdifferentcapture.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "JPYpretax perJPYnominalmeterexternal-saleschange (dimensionless)" }, { "id": "jv_tax", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "tax", "definition": "jv tax", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 0.315, "base": 0.315, "bull": 0.315 }, "observed_anchor": "FY26taxcurrent3104/deferred−106/cash1116;H1current2993/deferred383/cash2300/taxpay3189. 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NoJVtaxoffsetfromloss/restgroupdeductions.", "base_reason": "31.5%isHOUSEfuturegroupassumptionreflectingnewnationallevy/mix,notissuer-statedprospectiverate.65%yearendpayableisacashcalendarproxy;OCIheldzero,sourcedoldDTLheld.", "supported_bounds": "Rates30.5–33%economicrange;1ppstress;payable40–80%;DTAavailability/entitytaxfloor.", "falsifier": "Taxinstallments/entitymix/creditrealizabilityorbook-taxassetbasesdiffer.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "fraction / annual rate; see segment or fiscal axis" }, { "id": "lease_interest_rate", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "finance", "definition": "lease interest rate", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 0.015, "base": 0.015, "bull": 0.015 }, "observed_anchor": "Sepbank1880+lease21;LTschedule300/600/600/0remaining. BankSTrate1%,LT1.17%observedMar. 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Hasuda1610budget,313paidMar26;Jun27completion/Oct27operation. Newmeteringequipment1626plannedSep26.", "source_locators": [ "financial/tktk_yuho_2026.pdf PDF29–30,77,80,103", "audit/capital_schedule_review/REFINED_CAPITAL_REVIEW.json" ], "mechanism": "Post-Sepcapitalonly;namedHasudaspendinginsidebudget,unallocatedCIPexplicit;DAbycommission/life. Preserveopeningland/CIPfromlegacyamortization.", "base_reason": "6.5/7.5/7/6.5bnannualcashbudgetsremainhouseunderwriting,notcopyof33bnMTPwhichincludesR&D. Current2×H1DAisrun-rateproxy,notknownfullyearforecast. FlatlegacyDAavoidsunsupported4%automaticbenefit;runoffandlatecommissionstressesretained.", "supported_bounds": "Casecapitalbudgets;extra2bn/year;legacy−4%/+5%;736unallocatedCIPtiming. FutureSLlivesareeconomicproxiesnotstatutorycertainty.", "falsifier": "Projectcash/creditors,invoicevsbookadditions,assetregister,lives/commissioninganddomesticdecliningbalanceproduceotherDA.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "fraction / annual rate; see segment or fiscal axis" }, { "id": "legacy_lease_repayment", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "finance", "definition": "legacy lease repayment", "axis": [ "2027-03-31", "2028-03-31", "2029-03-31", "2030-03-31" ], "values": { "bear": [ 2, 4, 4, 4 ], "base": [ 2, 4, 4, 4 ], "bull": [ 2, 4, 4, 4 ] }, "observed_anchor": "Sepbank1880+lease21;LTschedule300/600/600/0remaining. BankSTrate1%,LT1.17%observedMar. 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FY26ARdays85.4/inventory124/AP55.2/advances7.8.", "source_locators": [ "financial/tktk_latest_result.pdf PDF7–11", "financial/FINANCIAL_ACTUALS_AND_COMMITMENTS.json" ], "mechanism": "Rollallmaterialreceivable/inventory/payable/advanceaccountswithannualsalesorconstantactivity-costproxy;bonus/DTAseparate;legacyotherCLfundingtimingexplicit.", "base_reason": "Year-enddaysanchoredMaractualratherthanextrapolatingseasonalSep;propertydepositneverordinaryWC. OtherCLheldbaseisaliveoperatingbalanceassumption,notknownfreecapitalcredit.", "supported_bounds": "AR+10/inventory+15days;settlealllegacyotherCLcase;cash-flowprojectionnotmonthlycovenanttest.", "falsifier": "Collection, WIPacceptance,contractadvances,bonus/warranty/creditorpaymentstimingdiffer.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "fraction / annual rate; see segment or fiscal axis" }, { "id": "maintenance_capex", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "capital", "definition": "maintenance capex", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 2000, "base": 2000, "bull": 2000 }, "observed_anchor": "FY26cashCAPEX6036vsbookadditions6248;H1paid2546/CIP1049. Hasuda1610budget,313paidMar26;Jun27completion/Oct27operation. Newmeteringequipment1626plannedSep26.", "source_locators": [ "financial/tktk_yuho_2026.pdf PDF29–30,77,80,103", "audit/capital_schedule_review/REFINED_CAPITAL_REVIEW.json" ], "mechanism": "Post-Sepcapitalonly;namedHasudaspendinginsidebudget,unallocatedCIPexplicit;DAbycommission/life. Preserveopeningland/CIPfromlegacyamortization.", "base_reason": "6.5/7.5/7/6.5bnannualcashbudgetsremainhouseunderwriting,notcopyof33bnMTPwhichincludesR&D. Current2×H1DAisrun-rateproxy,notknownfullyearforecast. FlatlegacyDAavoidsunsupported4%automaticbenefit;runoffandlatecommissionstressesretained.", "supported_bounds": "Casecapitalbudgets;extra2bn/year;legacy−4%/+5%;736unallocatedCIPtiming. FutureSLlivesareeconomicproxiesnotstatutorycertainty.", "falsifier": "Projectcash/creditors,invoicevsbookadditions,assetregister,lives/commissioninganddomesticdecliningbalanceproduceotherDA.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "JPY million; annual amounts except first post-Sep forecast-period inputs" }, { "id": "meter_annual_new", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "meter", "definition": "meter annual new", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 0.8, "base": 0.84, "bull": 0.88 }, "observed_anchor": "FY26externalS33212/orders34524;H1S18218/orders19952/B7693. 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SMAC3.6mnameplatedoesnotidentifyutilization/ASP/materialownership.", "supported_bounds": "Bear/base/bullbookingandconversionpaths;flatlaterordersstress.", "falsifier": "Awardmix, utilityreplacementstaging, outsourcingorqualifiedthroughputdiffers.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "fraction / annual rate; see segment or fiscal axis" }, { "id": "meter_h2_new", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "meter", "definition": "meter h2 new", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 0.55, "base": 0.65, "bull": 0.72 }, "observed_anchor": "FY26externalS33212/orders34524;H1S18218/orders19952/B7693. 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CommonR&D485alreadyexpensed.", "source_locators": [ "financial/tktk_latest_result.pdf PDF12–13", "financial/tktk_yuho_2026.pdf PDF28,103" ], "mechanism": "LockactualH1;infercashcostwithnamedhistoricaltransfer/DAproxyandpriorhalfseasonality;inflatecashprograms;addDAandneteliminationsonce.", "base_reason": "No residualtohitmanagement11bnOP. Transfer350m ispresentationjudgmentrange0–800andmustconservegroupOP; futureincrementalprogram100/200/300namedplanningallowance.", "supported_bounds": "3–4%inflationcases;0–800transferisclassificationrange,notgroupcostupside;cashprogramsboundedcasepaths.", "falsifier": "Functionalheadcount/R&Dprogram/allocationdisclosuresshowdifferentrecurringcostscope.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "JPY million; annual amounts except first post-Sep forecast-period inputs" }, { "id": "new_credit_planning_limit", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "finance", "definition": "new credit planning limit", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 25000.0, "base": 25000.0, "bull": 25000.0 }, "observed_anchor": "Sepbank1880+lease21;LTschedule300/600/600/0remaining. BankSTrate1%,LT1.17%observedMar. 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AnnualnetDTLchange521=−106PL+627OCI;lossDTA375fullyallowed.", "source_locators": [ "financial/FINANCIAL_ACTUALS_AND_COMMITMENTS.json/tax_observations", "financial/nta_defence_levy.pdf" ], "mechanism": "JVandremaininggroupseparatetaxfloors;after-taxequitymethodincomeexcludedfromsecondtax;DTAflowsfrombonus/pensioncashvsbook;cashsettlesopeningpayable. 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No applyingATSreturntowhole1788securities.", "supported_bounds": "Distribution0–100%,nonop50baselinevsannual/currenthalfobservedrange;notallprofitiscash.", "falsifier": "ATSfinancials,distribution/timingorroyalty/FX/othernonopchanges.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "JPY million; annual amounts except first post-Sep forecast-period inputs" }, { "id": "payable_days", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "workingcapital", "definition": "payable days", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 50, "base": 55.2, "bull": 58 }, "observed_anchor": "Septrade/notes/contract/electronicAR19894;inventory31710;AP9737;contractadvances3935;bonus2401. 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Actual67interimonly, futurefinal/interimfromownEPS×40%policy.", "base_reason": "No repeatbuybackorEPSbenefitfromcancellation;no undeclaredmanagement67finalinengine.40%policyactualbutfutureimplementationhousefundingassumption,notgrowth/yieldgate.", "supported_bounds": "0vsMarchtrustproxy;annual10000grantcase;policy0–40/50%cashstress.", "falsifier": "Newgrant/BBTdelivery/distributiondeclaredorsecuritiesevent.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "fraction / annual rate; see segment or fiscal axis" }, { "id": "pension_cash_drag", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "pension", "definition": "pension cash drag", "axis": [ "2027-03-31", "2028-03-31", "2029-03-31", "2030-03-31" ], "values": { "bear": [ 900, 800, 750, 700 ], "base": [ 900, 800, 750, 700 ], "bull": [ 900, 800, 750, 700 ] }, "observed_anchor": "FY26CFcash-over-book539vsH1461;grossSep10701/assets3017. 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No quantified whole-power nameplate;Oyamaearly2030s.", "source_locators": [ "financial/FINANCIAL_ACTUALS_AND_COMMITMENTS.json/orders_backlog_actuals", "operating/OPERATING_CLAIM_REGISTER.json" ], "mechanism": "Nominalneworderactivity andold/newdelivery jointlygeneratefixed-pricecohortshipments within constant-valuefinancialthroughput.", "base_reason": "Retain moderateorderpath: H2intake36000 only+2.5%versuspriorH2; annualnominalgrowth4.5%. 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PriorH2sales36430. No quantified whole-power nameplate;Oyamaearly2030s.", "source_locators": [ "financial/FINANCIAL_ACTUALS_AND_COMMITMENTS.json/orders_backlog_actuals", "operating/OPERATING_CLAIM_REGISTER.json" ], "mechanism": "Nominalneworderactivity andold/newdelivery jointlygeneratefixed-pricecohortshipments within constant-valuefinancialthroughput.", "base_reason": "Retain moderateorderpath: H2intake36000 only+2.5%versuspriorH2; annualnominalgrowth4.5%. Current6%/later4.5%resourcegrowthareexplicitfinancialplanningceilings,notmeasuredphysicalunits.", "supported_bounds": "Operationalcaseenvelopesplus0%capacitygrowthandneworderflatstress;notconfidenceintervals.", "falsifier": "Delivery/acceptancecalendar, staff/testingconstraints orprice-costevidence fails; throughputorbookingsbelowpath.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "fraction / annual rate; see segment or fiscal axis" }, { "id": "power_volume_cap", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "power", "definition": "power volume cap", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 0.015, "base": 0.045, "bull": 0.08 }, "observed_anchor": "FY26orders67880/sales63864;Sep26orders35973/sales27491/backlog75939. PriorH2sales36430. No quantified whole-power nameplate;Oyamaearly2030s.", "source_locators": [ "financial/FINANCIAL_ACTUALS_AND_COMMITMENTS.json/orders_backlog_actuals", "operating/OPERATING_CLAIM_REGISTER.json" ], "mechanism": "Nominalneworderactivity andold/newdelivery jointlygeneratefixed-pricecohortshipments within constant-valuefinancialthroughput.", "base_reason": "Retain moderateorderpath: H2intake36000 only+2.5%versuspriorH2; annualnominalgrowth4.5%. Current6%/later4.5%resourcegrowthareexplicitfinancialplanningceilings,notmeasuredphysicalunits.", "supported_bounds": "Operationalcaseenvelopesplus0%capacitygrowthandneworderflatstress;notconfidenceintervals.", "falsifier": "Delivery/acceptancecalendar, staff/testingconstraints orprice-costevidence fails; throughputorbookingsbelowpath.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "annualgrowthfraction ofresourceceiling" }, { "id": "prices", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "price", "definition": "prices", "axis": [ "power", "meter", "GX", "optical" ], "values": { "bear": [ 0.01, 0.005, 0, 0 ], "base": [ 0.02, 0.015, 0.01, 0.01 ], "bull": [ 0.03, 0.02, 0.015, 0.02 ] }, "observed_anchor": "IssuerdiscussespriceimprovementbutpublishesnounitASP/backlogcontractpriceindex.", "source_locators": [ "operating/OPERATING_REFINEMENT_REVIEW.md", "financial/tktk_latest_supplement.pdf PDF6,8–10" ], "mechanism": "Separateone-timeopeningcontractpricelevelversusFY26financialreference;futureannualpricegrowthappliesonlytoneworders. Openingcontractsretainvintagepriceunlessexplicitrepricingstress.", "base_reason": "2/1.5/1/1%segmentpricelevels/ratesareweakhouseproxies. Initialunityandfutureflat-pricecasesarecritical,notoptionalconfidenceembellishment.", "supported_bounds": "Openingindicesunitytohousecaselevels;newprice0andstatedcasepaths;old-bookrepricing0base,50%hypotheticalupperstress.", "falsifier": "Contractescalationclauses,quote/realizedASPormixcontradictslevels.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "fraction / annual rate; see segment or fiscal axis" }, { "id": "property_advance_m", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "property", "definition": "property advance m", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 911, "base": 911, "bull": 911 }, "observed_anchor": "FY26segmentOP622/DA285versusexternalrentalprofit308/DA136;internalrent524,H1internal264vsprior261. PlannedfinaltransferJun11,2027;consideration/bookundisclosed;H1advance911investingcash.", "source_locators": [ "financial/PROPERTY_AND_INVESTMENT_SCOPE_AUDIT.json", "financial/tktk_property_sale.pdf PDF1–2", "financial/tktk_yuho_2026.pdf PDF29,99,102–103" ], "mechanism": "Prorateexternalrenttoclosing;preservederived314profit/149DAaccountscopecounterpartcostselsewhere;separatebookderecognition,netgain,cashreceiptandnoncashadvancerelease.", "base_reason": "Residualcontinuityisconsolidationaccountingjudgment,notnewexternalbusiness. Book3.8bnisroundedproxyfrom7.775bnrentalbooklessfirstnetdisposal,notcontractdata. Gain5.299bnisremainingissuerestimate;receipt8.188bnisinferred,nevercashfloor.", "supported_bounds": "Coherentnofurthersalescenario;0–314mtrueunoffsetannualprofitloss;classificationfraction0–1changesfundingbaseassumptionbutmustkeepfullBS;receiptnotfixedindependentlyofbook/gain/advance.", "falsifier": "Finalsettlement/book/costs,tenant/assetallocationsorpost-exitcostchangesdiffer.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "JPY million; annual amounts except first post-Sep forecast-period inputs" }, { "id": "property_advance_other_CL_fraction", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "property", "definition": "property advance other CL fraction", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 1.0, "base": 1.0, "bull": 1.0 }, "observed_anchor": "FY26segmentOP622/DA285versusexternalrentalprofit308/DA136;internalrent524,H1internal264vsprior261. PlannedfinaltransferJun11,2027;consideration/bookundisclosed;H1advance911investingcash.", "source_locators": [ "financial/PROPERTY_AND_INVESTMENT_SCOPE_AUDIT.json", "financial/tktk_property_sale.pdf PDF1–2", "financial/tktk_yuho_2026.pdf PDF29,99,102–103" ], "mechanism": "Prorateexternalrenttoclosing;preservederived314profit/149DAaccountscopecounterpartcostselsewhere;separatebookderecognition,netgain,cashreceiptandnoncashadvancerelease.", "base_reason": "Residualcontinuityisconsolidationaccountingjudgment,notnewexternalbusiness. Book3.8bnisroundedproxyfrom7.775bnrentalbooklessfirstnetdisposal,notcontractdata. Gain5.299bnisremainingissuerestimate;receipt8.188bnisinferred,nevercashfloor.", "supported_bounds": "Coherentnofurthersalescenario;0–314mtrueunoffsetannualprofitloss;classificationfraction0–1changesfundingbaseassumptionbutmustkeepfullBS;receiptnotfixedindependentlyofbook/gain/advance.", "falsifier": "Finalsettlement/book/costs,tenant/assetallocationsorpost-exitcostchangesdiffer.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "fraction / annual rate; see segment or fiscal axis" }, { "id": "property_final_book", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "property", "definition": "property final book", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 3800.0, "base": 3800.0, "bull": 3800.0 }, "observed_anchor": "FY26segmentOP622/DA285versusexternalrentalprofit308/DA136;internalrent524,H1internal264vsprior261. PlannedfinaltransferJun11,2027;consideration/bookundisclosed;H1advance911investingcash.", "source_locators": [ "financial/PROPERTY_AND_INVESTMENT_SCOPE_AUDIT.json", "financial/tktk_property_sale.pdf PDF1–2", "financial/tktk_yuho_2026.pdf PDF29,99,102–103" ], "mechanism": "Prorateexternalrenttoclosing;preservederived314profit/149DAaccountscopecounterpartcostselsewhere;separatebookderecognition,netgain,cashreceiptandnoncashadvancerelease.", "base_reason": "Residualcontinuityisconsolidationaccountingjudgment,notnewexternalbusiness. Book3.8bnisroundedproxyfrom7.775bnrentalbooklessfirstnetdisposal,notcontractdata. Gain5.299bnisremainingissuerestimate;receipt8.188bnisinferred,nevercashfloor.", "supported_bounds": "Coherentnofurthersalescenario;0–314mtrueunoffsetannualprofitloss;classificationfraction0–1changesfundingbaseassumptionbutmustkeepfullBS;receiptnotfixedindependentlyofbook/gain/advance.", "falsifier": "Finalsettlement/book/costs,tenant/assetallocationsorpost-exitcostchangesdiffer.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "JPY million; annual amounts except first post-Sep forecast-period inputs" }, { "id": "property_final_gain", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "property", "definition": "property final gain", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 4700, "base": 5299, "bull": 5299 }, "observed_anchor": "FY26segmentOP622/DA285versusexternalrentalprofit308/DA136;internalrent524,H1internal264vsprior261. PlannedfinaltransferJun11,2027;consideration/bookundisclosed;H1advance911investingcash.", "source_locators": [ "financial/PROPERTY_AND_INVESTMENT_SCOPE_AUDIT.json", "financial/tktk_property_sale.pdf PDF1–2", "financial/tktk_yuho_2026.pdf PDF29,99,102–103" ], "mechanism": "Prorateexternalrenttoclosing;preservederived314profit/149DAaccountscopecounterpartcostselsewhere;separatebookderecognition,netgain,cashreceiptandnoncashadvancerelease.", "base_reason": "Residualcontinuityisconsolidationaccountingjudgment,notnewexternalbusiness. Book3.8bnisroundedproxyfrom7.775bnrentalbooklessfirstnetdisposal,notcontractdata. Gain5.299bnisremainingissuerestimate;receipt8.188bnisinferred,nevercashfloor.", "supported_bounds": "Coherentnofurthersalescenario;0–314mtrueunoffsetannualprofitloss;classificationfraction0–1changesfundingbaseassumptionbutmustkeepfullBS;receiptnotfixedindependentlyofbook/gain/advance.", "falsifier": "Finalsettlement/book/costs,tenant/assetallocationsorpost-exitcostchangesdiffer.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "JPY million; annual amounts except first post-Sep forecast-period inputs" }, { "id": "property_remaining_rent_runrate", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "property", "definition": "property remaining rent runrate", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 400.0, "base": 400.0, "bull": 400.0 }, "observed_anchor": "FY26segmentOP622/DA285versusexternalrentalprofit308/DA136;internalrent524,H1internal264vsprior261. PlannedfinaltransferJun11,2027;consideration/bookundisclosed;H1advance911investingcash.", "source_locators": [ "financial/PROPERTY_AND_INVESTMENT_SCOPE_AUDIT.json", "financial/tktk_property_sale.pdf PDF1–2", "financial/tktk_yuho_2026.pdf PDF29,99,102–103" ], "mechanism": "Prorateexternalrenttoclosing;preservederived314profit/149DAaccountscopecounterpartcostselsewhere;separatebookderecognition,netgain,cashreceiptandnoncashadvancerelease.", "base_reason": "Residualcontinuityisconsolidationaccountingjudgment,notnewexternalbusiness. Book3.8bnisroundedproxyfrom7.775bnrentalbooklessfirstnetdisposal,notcontractdata. Gain5.299bnisremainingissuerestimate;receipt8.188bnisinferred,nevercashfloor.", "supported_bounds": "Coherentnofurthersalescenario;0–314mtrueunoffsetannualprofitloss;classificationfraction0–1changesfundingbaseassumptionbutmustkeepfullBS;receiptnotfixedindependentlyofbook/gain/advance.", "falsifier": "Finalsettlement/book/costs,tenant/assetallocationsorpost-exitcostchangesdiffer.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "JPYmillion/year externalrent" }, { "id": "property_sale_date", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "property", "definition": "property sale date", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": "2027-06-11", "base": "2027-06-11", "bull": "2027-06-11" }, "observed_anchor": "FY26segmentOP622/DA285versusexternalrentalprofit308/DA136;internalrent524,H1internal264vsprior261. PlannedfinaltransferJun11,2027;consideration/bookundisclosed;H1advance911investingcash.", "source_locators": [ "financial/PROPERTY_AND_INVESTMENT_SCOPE_AUDIT.json", "financial/tktk_property_sale.pdf PDF1–2", "financial/tktk_yuho_2026.pdf PDF29,99,102–103" ], "mechanism": "Prorateexternalrenttoclosing;preservederived314profit/149DAaccountscopecounterpartcostselsewhere;separatebookderecognition,netgain,cashreceiptandnoncashadvancerelease.", "base_reason": "Residualcontinuityisconsolidationaccountingjudgment,notnewexternalbusiness. Book3.8bnisroundedproxyfrom7.775bnrentalbooklessfirstnetdisposal,notcontractdata. Gain5.299bnisremainingissuerestimate;receipt8.188bnisinferred,nevercashfloor.", "supported_bounds": "Coherentnofurthersalescenario;0–314mtrueunoffsetannualprofitloss;classificationfraction0–1changesfundingbaseassumptionbutmustkeepfullBS;receiptnotfixedindependentlyofbook/gain/advance.", "falsifier": "Finalsettlement/book/costs,tenant/assetallocationsorpost-exitcostchangesdiffer.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "ISO date; null means commissioning not assumed" }, { "id": "property_sale_enabled", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "property", "definition": "property sale enabled", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": true, "base": true, "bull": true }, "observed_anchor": "FY26segmentOP622/DA285versusexternalrentalprofit308/DA136;internalrent524,H1internal264vsprior261. PlannedfinaltransferJun11,2027;consideration/bookundisclosed;H1advance911investingcash.", "source_locators": [ "financial/PROPERTY_AND_INVESTMENT_SCOPE_AUDIT.json", "financial/tktk_property_sale.pdf PDF1–2", "financial/tktk_yuho_2026.pdf PDF29,99,102–103" ], "mechanism": "Prorateexternalrenttoclosing;preservederived314profit/149DAaccountscopecounterpartcostselsewhere;separatebookderecognition,netgain,cashreceiptandnoncashadvancerelease.", "base_reason": "Residualcontinuityisconsolidationaccountingjudgment,notnewexternalbusiness. Book3.8bnisroundedproxyfrom7.775bnrentalbooklessfirstnetdisposal,notcontractdata. Gain5.299bnisremainingissuerestimate;receipt8.188bnisinferred,nevercashfloor.", "supported_bounds": "Coherentnofurthersalescenario;0–314mtrueunoffsetannualprofitloss;classificationfraction0–1changesfundingbaseassumptionbutmustkeepfullBS;receiptnotfixedindependentlyofbook/gain/advance.", "falsifier": "Finalsettlement/book/costs,tenant/assetallocationsorpost-exitcostchangesdiffer.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "boolean scope choice" }, { "id": "property_scope_retention", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "property", "definition": "property scope retention", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 1.0, "base": 1.0, "bull": 1.0 }, "observed_anchor": "FY26segmentOP622/DA285versusexternalrentalprofit308/DA136;internalrent524,H1internal264vsprior261. PlannedfinaltransferJun11,2027;consideration/bookundisclosed;H1advance911investingcash.", "source_locators": [ "financial/PROPERTY_AND_INVESTMENT_SCOPE_AUDIT.json", "financial/tktk_property_sale.pdf PDF1–2", "financial/tktk_yuho_2026.pdf PDF29,99,102–103" ], "mechanism": "Prorateexternalrenttoclosing;preservederived314profit/149DAaccountscopecounterpartcostselsewhere;separatebookderecognition,netgain,cashreceiptandnoncashadvancerelease.", "base_reason": "Residualcontinuityisconsolidationaccountingjudgment,notnewexternalbusiness. Book3.8bnisroundedproxyfrom7.775bnrentalbooklessfirstnetdisposal,notcontractdata. Gain5.299bnisremainingissuerestimate;receipt8.188bnisinferred,nevercashfloor.", "supported_bounds": "Coherentnofurthersalescenario;0–314mtrueunoffsetannualprofitloss;classificationfraction0–1changesfundingbaseassumptionbutmustkeepfullBS;receiptnotfixedindependentlyofbook/gain/advance.", "falsifier": "Finalsettlement/book/costs,tenant/assetallocationsorpost-exitcostchangesdiffer.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "fraction / annual rate; see segment or fiscal axis" }, { "id": "property_unoffset_scope_loss_annual", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "property", "definition": "property unoffset scope loss annual", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "bull": 0.0 }, "observed_anchor": "FY26segmentOP622/DA285versusexternalrentalprofit308/DA136;internalrent524,H1internal264vsprior261. PlannedfinaltransferJun11,2027;consideration/bookundisclosed;H1advance911investingcash.", "source_locators": [ "financial/PROPERTY_AND_INVESTMENT_SCOPE_AUDIT.json", "financial/tktk_property_sale.pdf PDF1–2", "financial/tktk_yuho_2026.pdf PDF29,99,102–103" ], "mechanism": "Prorateexternalrenttoclosing;preservederived314profit/149DAaccountscopecounterpartcostselsewhere;separatebookderecognition,netgain,cashreceiptandnoncashadvancerelease.", "base_reason": "Residualcontinuityisconsolidationaccountingjudgment,notnewexternalbusiness. Book3.8bnisroundedproxyfrom7.775bnrentalbooklessfirstnetdisposal,notcontractdata. Gain5.299bnisremainingissuerestimate;receipt8.188bnisinferred,nevercashfloor.", "supported_bounds": "Coherentnofurthersalescenario;0–314mtrueunoffsetannualprofitloss;classificationfraction0–1changesfundingbaseassumptionbutmustkeepfullBS;receiptnotfixedindependentlyofbook/gain/advance.", "falsifier": "Finalsettlement/book/costs,tenant/assetallocationsorpost-exitcostchangesdiffer.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "JPY million; annual amounts except first post-Sep forecast-period inputs" }, { "id": "receivable_days", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "workingcapital", "definition": "receivable days", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 95, "base": 85.4, "bull": 82 }, "observed_anchor": "Septrade/notes/contract/electronicAR19894;inventory31710;AP9737;contractadvances3935;bonus2401. FY26ARdays85.4/inventory124/AP55.2/advances7.8.", "source_locators": [ "financial/tktk_latest_result.pdf PDF7–11", "financial/FINANCIAL_ACTUALS_AND_COMMITMENTS.json" ], "mechanism": "Rollallmaterialreceivable/inventory/payable/advanceaccountswithannualsalesorconstantactivity-costproxy;bonus/DTAseparate;legacyotherCLfundingtimingexplicit.", "base_reason": "Year-enddaysanchoredMaractualratherthanextrapolatingseasonalSep;propertydepositneverordinaryWC. OtherCLheldbaseisaliveoperatingbalanceassumption,notknownfreecapitalcredit.", "supported_bounds": "AR+10/inventory+15days;settlealllegacyotherCLcase;cash-flowprojectionnotmonthlycovenanttest.", "falsifier": "Collection, WIPacceptance,contractadvances,bonus/warranty/creditorpaymentstimingdiffer.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "days" }, { "id": "reclassification", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "corporate", "definition": "reclassification", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 350, "base": 350, "bull": 350 }, "observed_anchor": "CurrentH1central3121/prior2710;FY26central5639;neteliminationsH1−50. CommonR&D485alreadyexpensed.", "source_locators": [ "financial/tktk_latest_result.pdf PDF12–13", "financial/tktk_yuho_2026.pdf PDF28,103" ], "mechanism": "LockactualH1;infercashcostwithnamedhistoricaltransfer/DAproxyandpriorhalfseasonality;inflatecashprograms;addDAandneteliminationsonce.", "base_reason": "No residualtohitmanagement11bnOP. Transfer350m ispresentationjudgmentrange0–800andmustconservegroupOP; futureincrementalprogram100/200/300namedplanningallowance.", "supported_bounds": "3–4%inflationcases;0–800transferisclassificationrange,notgroupcostupside;cashprogramsboundedcasepaths.", "falsifier": "Functionalheadcount/R&Dprogram/allocationdisclosuresshowdifferentrecurringcostscope.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "JPY million; annual amounts except first post-Sep forecast-period inputs" }, { "id": "staff_elasticity", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "cost", "definition": "staff elasticity", "axis": [ "power", "meter", "GX", "optical" ], "values": { "bear": [ 0.2, 0.15, 0.1, 0.15 ], "base": [ 0.2, 0.15, 0.1, 0.15 ], "bull": [ 0.2, 0.15, 0.1, 0.15 ] }, "observed_anchor": "FY26externalS/segmentOP/DA,latestH1andpriorH1costseasonality;manufacturingunitcostcurvesundisclosed.", "source_locators": [ "financial/FINANCIAL_ACTUALS_AND_COMMITMENTS.json/segment_actuals", "financial/tktk_yuho_2026.pdf PDF28,68,102–103" ], "mechanism": "Affinevariable/fixedcashcostcalibrationreproducesactualsegmentprofit;prices,inputinflation,staffelasticityandDAproducefuturemargins.", "base_reason": "Contribution35/40/30/50%arehistoricalfinancialdecompositions(netinternalallocations),notdisclosedproductunitmargins.3%cashfixedinflationcoverswage/R&Dpressurealreadyinactuals.", "supported_bounds": "Casecostpaths;1ppinputinflation, alternativehistoricaldecompositions;fixedvaluesarenotempiricallyestimatedconfidencebounds.", "falsifier": "Incrementalmargins, payroll, R&D,qualitycostoroutsourcingdepartsfrompool.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "fraction / annual rate; see segment or fiscal axis" }, { "id": "tax", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "tax", "definition": "tax", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 0.315, "base": 0.315, "bull": 0.315 }, "observed_anchor": "FY26taxcurrent3104/deferred−106/cash1116;H1current2993/deferred383/cash2300/taxpay3189. AnnualnetDTLchange521=−106PL+627OCI;lossDTA375fullyallowed.", "source_locators": [ "financial/FINANCIAL_ACTUALS_AND_COMMITMENTS.json/tax_observations", "financial/nta_defence_levy.pdf" ], "mechanism": "JVandremaininggroupseparatetaxfloors;after-taxequitymethodincomeexcludedfromsecondtax;DTAflowsfrombonus/pensioncashvsbook;cashsettlesopeningpayable. NoJVtaxoffsetfromloss/restgroupdeductions.", "base_reason": "31.5%isHOUSEfuturegroupassumptionreflectingnewnationallevy/mix,notissuer-statedprospectiverate.65%yearendpayableisacashcalendarproxy;OCIheldzero,sourcedoldDTLheld.", "supported_bounds": "Rates30.5–33%economicrange;1ppstress;payable40–80%;DTAavailability/entitytaxfloor.", "falsifier": "Taxinstallments/entitymix/creditrealizabilityorbook-taxassetbasesdiffer.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "fraction / annual rate; see segment or fiscal axis" }, { "id": "tax_payable_fraction", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "tax", "definition": "tax payable fraction", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 0.65, "base": 0.65, "bull": 0.65 }, "observed_anchor": "FY26taxcurrent3104/deferred−106/cash1116;H1current2993/deferred383/cash2300/taxpay3189. AnnualnetDTLchange521=−106PL+627OCI;lossDTA375fullyallowed.", "source_locators": [ "financial/FINANCIAL_ACTUALS_AND_COMMITMENTS.json/tax_observations", "financial/nta_defence_levy.pdf" ], "mechanism": "JVandremaininggroupseparatetaxfloors;after-taxequitymethodincomeexcludedfromsecondtax;DTAflowsfrombonus/pensioncashvsbook;cashsettlesopeningpayable. NoJVtaxoffsetfromloss/restgroupdeductions.", "base_reason": "31.5%isHOUSEfuturegroupassumptionreflectingnewnationallevy/mix,notissuer-statedprospectiverate.65%yearendpayableisacashcalendarproxy;OCIheldzero,sourcedoldDTLheld.", "supported_bounds": "Rates30.5–33%economicrange;1ppstress;payable40–80%;DTAavailability/entitytaxfloor.", "falsifier": "Taxinstallments/entitymix/creditrealizabilityorbook-taxassetbasesdiffer.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "fraction / annual rate; see segment or fiscal axis" }, { "id": "trust_dividend_shares_proxy", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "ownership", "definition": "trust dividend shares proxy", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 162040, "base": 162040, "bull": 162040 }, "observed_anchor": "Executed657000buybackcompletedSep1;Oct8cancellationreducesissued/treasuryequally. ExBBT EPSshares15399767/H1weighted15766037. MarBBT162040;Septtrustcountundisclosed.", "source_locators": [ "financial/FINANCIAL_ACTUALS_AND_COMMITMENTS.json/share_actions", "financial/press_2881333.pdf" ], "mechanism": "Actualhalfshare-days+postbuybackshares;cashdividendssharesincludetrustproxy;futuregrantseparate. Actual67interimonly, futurefinal/interimfromownEPS×40%policy.", "base_reason": "No repeatbuybackorEPSbenefitfromcancellation;no undeclaredmanagement67finalinengine.40%policyactualbutfutureimplementationhousefundingassumption,notgrowth/yieldgate.", "supported_bounds": "0vsMarchtrustproxy;annual10000grantcase;policy0–40/50%cashstress.", "falsifier": "Newgrant/BBTdelivery/distributiondeclaredorsecuritiesevent.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "ordinary shares" }, { "id": "unallocated_opening_CIP_commission", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "capital", "definition": "unallocated opening CIP commission", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": null, "base": null, "bull": null }, "observed_anchor": "FY26cashCAPEX6036vsbookadditions6248;H1paid2546/CIP1049. Hasuda1610budget,313paidMar26;Jun27completion/Oct27operation. Newmeteringequipment1626plannedSep26.", "source_locators": [ "financial/tktk_yuho_2026.pdf PDF29–30,77,80,103", "audit/capital_schedule_review/REFINED_CAPITAL_REVIEW.json" ], "mechanism": "Post-Sepcapitalonly;namedHasudaspendinginsidebudget,unallocatedCIPexplicit;DAbycommission/life. Preserveopeningland/CIPfromlegacyamortization.", "base_reason": "6.5/7.5/7/6.5bnannualcashbudgetsremainhouseunderwriting,notcopyof33bnMTPwhichincludesR&D. Current2×H1DAisrun-rateproxy,notknownfullyearforecast. FlatlegacyDAavoidsunsupported4%automaticbenefit;runoffandlatecommissionstressesretained.", "supported_bounds": "Casecapitalbudgets;extra2bn/year;legacy−4%/+5%;736unallocatedCIPtiming. FutureSLlivesareeconomicproxiesnotstatutorycertainty.", "falsifier": "Projectcash/creditors,invoicevsbookadditions,assetregister,lives/commissioninganddomesticdecliningbalanceproduceotherDA.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "ISO date; null means commissioning not assumed" }, { "id": "unallocated_opening_CIP_life", "type": "JII_house_assumption_or_identified_scope_control", "family": "capital", "definition": "unallocated opening CIP life", "axis": null, "values": { "bear": 12, "base": 12, "bull": 12 }, "observed_anchor": "FY26cashCAPEX6036vsbookadditions6248;H1paid2546/CIP1049. Hasuda1610budget,313paidMar26;Jun27completion/Oct27operation. Newmeteringequipment1626plannedSep26.", "source_locators": [ "financial/tktk_yuho_2026.pdf PDF29–30,77,80,103", "audit/capital_schedule_review/REFINED_CAPITAL_REVIEW.json" ], "mechanism": "Post-Sepcapitalonly;namedHasudaspendinginsidebudget,unallocatedCIPexplicit;DAbycommission/life. Preserveopeningland/CIPfromlegacyamortization.", "base_reason": "6.5/7.5/7/6.5bnannualcashbudgetsremainhouseunderwriting,notcopyof33bnMTPwhichincludesR&D. Current2×H1DAisrun-rateproxy,notknownfullyearforecast. FlatlegacyDAavoidsunsupported4%automaticbenefit;runoffandlatecommissionstressesretained.", "supported_bounds": "Casecapitalbudgets;extra2bn/year;legacy−4%/+5%;736unallocatedCIPtiming. FutureSLlivesareeconomicproxiesnotstatutorycertainty.", "falsifier": "Projectcash/creditors,invoicevsbookadditions,assetregister,lives/commissioninganddomesticdecliningbalanceproduceotherDA.", "confidence": "Conditional; no statisticalconfidenceinterval", "output_lineage": "See namedparameter inengine.py; flows to operating/cash/capital calculation or explicitly identified reportingcontrol.", "units": "years" } ], "additional_controls": [ { "id": "LEASE_GAAP_SCOPE", "type": "known_reporting_gap", "observed": "IssueradoptsnewleaseaccountingApr2027;impactnotquantified.", "treatment": "Consistentafter-rent economic earnings; newJGAAPleaseeffectfromApr2027notquantified. Do notdoublechargeexistingrentandnewleaseprincipal." }, { "id": "FIXED_DTL_AND_OCI", "type": "house_scope_assumption", "observed": "SepDTL2267held;historicalFY26OCI-tax627keptoutofCFO.", "treatment": "No futureOCI/book-taxdepreciation/propertybasisdetailinvented;futurecash-taxconditional,notexactstatutorytaxreturn." }, { "id": "WARRANTY_AND_REPAIR", "type": "house_cash_timing_assumption", "observed": "Sepwarranty1877/repair81/director190;H1cashreleasedwarranty253,repair1343includingoneoffgain.", "treatment": "Holdfutureclosingreservebalancesbase,implyingfutureordinarychargesandcashsettlementsbalancewithinobservedcostpools. No newunquantifiedfine/reserveadded. Stresslegacyliabilitysettlementseparately." }, { "id": "POWER_PRODUCTIVITY_REQUIRED", "type": "derived_capacity_requirement", "observed": "SourceFY26power1360permanent+288temporary;nameplatephysicalcapacityundisclosed.", "treatment": "4.5%realworkloadgrowthwithlowfixedcoststaffelasticityrequiresproductivity/mix/test-acceptanceimprovement. Itisnotverifiedworkers×unitoutput;zerocapacitygrowthstressisdecisioncritical." }, { "id": "PENSION_EXPENSE_SCOPE", "type": "known_model_limit", "observed": "DBexpense821includesactuarialcredit238andpastservice47;discount2.7%versus1.2%;unrecognizedgain2153amortizedunder5yrpolicy.", "treatment": "CostpoolinflationretainsDBcostimplicitly. HigherPBOinterestandgainamortizationcanoffset; nofreeactuarialprofitadded. Individualservice/benefitcohortforecastrequiresunpublishedcurrentpensioninformation." } ], "interpretation": "Evidence-groundedactuals plus explicitunderidentifiedfinancialproxies; sourcefacts andfutureassumptionsnever interchangeable. Figurecount orgranularitydoesnotproveaccuracy." }