All scenarios, segment assumptions, public sources, sensitivities and reproducible calculations.
HAMAKYOREX 9037
Our forecast model
JII base case · Research cutoff: 5 November 2026 · Model version 1.0 · Fiscal years end in March
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Two operating businesses—3PL centers and trucking—drive the earnings model. Revenue, labor and subcontract costs, productivity, investment funding, tax and minority claims reconcile to recurring parent EPS. Management guidance remains a separate comparator.
The annual outlook
JII estimates · ¥billion, except EPS and margins · Constant pre-adoption lease accounting
| Fiscal year | FY3/27E | FY3/28E | FY3/29E | FY3/30E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 172.69 | 180.26 | 188.21 | 196.56 |
| EBIT | 16.49 | 18.52 | 20.10 | 21.75 |
| EBIT margin (%) | 9.6 | 10.3 | 10.7 | 11.1 |
| Recurring basic EPS (¥) | 138.16 | 152.02 | 165.98 | 180.58 |
| Cash capex¹ | 6.40 | 13.30 | 11.62 | 12.24 |
| Operating cash flow¹ | 7.99 | 19.04 | 20.76 | 22.59 |
| FCF after lease principal¹ | 0.54 | 3.63 | 7.04 | 8.25 |
| Closing available cash | 21.34 | 17.76 | 17.27 | 17.64 |
| Closing bank debt | 39.78 | 36.28 | 32.78 | 29.28 |
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E = JII estimate. FY3/27 earnings combine reported H1 and estimated H2. Recurring EPS uses basic shares; it is distinct from reported statutory EPS. FY3/26 reported basic EPS was ¥144.83; estimated normalized EPS was ¥135.01. FY3/27E ¥138.16 to FY3/30E ¥180.58 spans exactly three years: 30.7% total growth and 9.3% CAGR.
¹ FY3/27 cash capex, operating cash flow and FCF cover October 2026–March 2027 only. H1 cash flows were not disclosed at the research cutoff. FY3/28–30 cash flows cover full fiscal years. Closing cash and bank debt are fiscal year-end stocks. Forecast available cash deducts an assumed ¥1.721bn time-deposit proxy from the starting gross deposits.
FCF = operating cash flow less cash capex less finance-lease principal, before dividends, acquisitions and bank repayments. The three full forecast years FY3/28–30 generate ¥18.92bn cumulatively. At 30 September 2026, gross cash/deposits ¥26.132bn versus bank borrowings ¥41.527bn imply ¥15.395bn net bank debt, excluding leases. September lease liabilities are not separately subtotaled.
The assumptions that matter
| Driver | Base-case assumption | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| 3PL center work | Annual same-book activity 0%; churn 1%; new-work revenue 4.5% of prior-year sales; price 2%. | JII financial proxies anchored to reported customer starts and segment growth. Site counts are not revenue units; no invented center fee or relay income. |
| Trucking rates and activity | Annual activity 0%; realized pricing +2.2%. | JII assumptions. Rate recovery must exceed the cost of drivers, subcontracting and low-density routes. |
| People, inputs and productivity | Wages +3.5%; other variable inflation +1.5%; center/truck productivity 1.4%/1.7% annually. | The disclosed cost mix anchors the model; unit-cost behavior is a house proxy. Startup cost equals 2% of new-contract revenue. |
| Investment and depreciation | Cash capex ¥13.30bn/¥11.62bn/¥12.24bn in FY3/28–30; maintenance begins at ¥6bn/year. | Named building commitments total ¥11.702bn and sit inside the spending envelopes. Depreciation begins when projects enter use; the maintenance/growth split is not disclosed. |
| Working capital and funding | Receivables 43.4 days; payables 17.5 days; bank interest 1.5%; bank principal repayment ¥3.5bn/year. | Starts from actual September borrowings. An assumed ¥15bn available-cash reserve triggers model funding; lender availability is not assured. |
| Lease accounting | Constant pre-adoption operating-rent basis; finance-lease principal ¥2.1bn/year. | New lease-standard effects from April 2027 remain unquantified. The ¥6.702bn opening finance-lease balance is a March 2026 proxy, not a separately disclosed September amount. |
| Tax, minorities and shares | Tax 33.5%; Kinbutsu earnings proxy +5%; residual minority-claim pool +4%; 74.050222m later basic shares. | Separate parent/minority claims follow tax. FY3/27 weighted shares differ from later years; no future buyback or new dilution is assumed. |
| Distributions and acquisitions | Future parent dividends 30% of parent earnings; minority dividends 28%; no unannounced acquisition, subsidy or relay-fee income. | Future payout and acquisition assumptions are JII estimates. FCF is before dividends and bank repayments and does not equal an increase in cash. |
Sources and calculation basis
Primary evidence: FY3/26 results; H1 FY3/27 results,30 October 2026; FY3/26 annual securities report; and FY3/26 supplemental presentation. Exact locators and observed-versus-assumed input classifications are retained in the assumption register.
The company plans to adopt the new lease standard from April 2027 and has not quantified its effect. These recurring economic estimates retain operating rents in costs and separately fund finance leases; they are not precise statutory EPS forecasts after adoption. Contract prices, wins/losses, cost responses, project cash timing and minority attribution remain material model uncertainties.
Underlying data retain full precision. The table rounds billions and EPS to two decimals. Bear/base/bull cases and causal sensitivities are in the full download; they are conditional scenarios, not statistical confidence ranges. Future unannounced acquisition earnings/cash, relay fees and subsidies are zero.
Model notes · Scenario inputs · Assumptions and source passages · Source index · All annual scenarios (.csv)