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"weighted_average_basic_shares": 20123477.98637502, "recurring_eps": 113.79802808306721, "known_H1_recurring_PBT": 0, "forecast_period_PBT": 3661.64241827101, "forecast_period_cash_tax": 1126.483839081303, "noncash_seller_PV_unwind": 93.30371199999998, "bank_cash_interest": 337.127625, "lease_cash_interest": 7.96, "cash_finance_fee": 20, "cash_interest_income": 15.794, "nci_entity_cohorts": [ { "name": "AI ONE25%outside", "source_annual_outside_claim": 163.1823031496063, "outside_claim_before_purchase_annual": 172.29118990157474, "prepaid_timing_effect_on_annualized_outside_profit": -45.39400250000003, "put_covered_fraction_house": 1.0, "opening_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 0, "new_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 0.1, "closing_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 0.1, "remaining_aftertax_NCI_this_forecast_period": 163.676630406496, "put_cash_purchase": 379.5552580809456, "pending_put_house_cashpoint": 3415.99732272851 }, { "name": "Roombox15%outside", "source_annual_outside_claim": 8.381819444444444, "outside_claim_before_purchase_annual": 11.670845394444441, "prepaid_timing_effect_on_annualized_outside_profit": 0, "put_covered_fraction_house": 1.0, "opening_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 0, "new_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 0.1, "closing_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 0.1, "remaining_aftertax_NCI_this_forecast_period": 11.087303124722219, "put_cash_purchase": 27.552293645549163, "pending_put_house_cashpoint": 247.97064280994246 }, { "name": "Other observed nonparent-profit cohort", "source_annual_outside_claim": 61.888899999999985, "outside_claim_before_purchase_annual": 72.18721296, "prepaid_timing_effect_on_annualized_outside_profit": 0, "put_covered_fraction_house": 0.5, "opening_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 0, "new_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 0.1, "closing_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 0.1, "remaining_aftertax_NCI_this_forecast_period": 70.382532636, "put_cash_purchase": 81.51857805486765, "pending_put_house_cashpoint": 733.6672024938088 } ], "put_cash_paid": 488.6261297813624, "earnout_cash_paid": 389.4786767870152, "fixed_AI_ONE_cash_variant": 250, "pending_put_house_cashpoint": 4397.635168032261, "pending_earnout_house_cashpoint": 1363.1753687545531, "customer_prepaid_revenue_earned_without_new_cash": 778.1829, "customer_refunds_paid": 0.0, "remaining_contract_liability": 129.69714999999997, "working_capital_change": 816.8383393849656, "forecast_period_business_cash_flow": 1258.7424625347626, "cash_capex": 154.8872807738582, "lease_principal_cash": 147.908, "source_tax_payable_cash_paid": 0, "opening_cash": 15034.882426991946, "ending_cash": 11718.998802184473, "opening_debt": 13485.105, "mandatory_bank_principal_paid": 3143.726, "conditional_bank_refinancing": 0, "ending_debt": 10341.378999999999, "conditional_equity_cash_required": 0, "new_basic_shares": 0.0, "ending_basic_shares": 20123477.98637502, "unsettled_claim_and_customer_cash_reserve": 5890.507686786815, "cash_after_claim_reserves": 5828.491115397658, "cash_without_refinance_or_equity": 11718.998802184473, "cash_reconciliation_error": 0.0, "funding_status": "observed_cash_funds_case", "elapsed_years_since_opening": 1.5, "opening_lease_debt": 318.4, "new_lease_liabilities_house": 147.908, "ending_lease_debt": 318.4, "opening_prepaid_delivery_embedded_in_nominal_anchor": 1037.5772000000002, "prepaid_revenue_timing_difference": -259.39430000000016, "receivables_balance": 4412.724109232091, "payables_balance": 1137.0737564984188 }, { "label": "FY2", "period_end": "2028-12-31", "op": 5037.838712882991, "forecast_period_revenue": 25662.57445157649, "sales": 25662.57445157649, "forecast_period_variable_cash_cost": 13164.245000036271, "forecast_period_fixed_cash_cost": 7215.463516526479, "depreciation_amortization": 245.02722213074784, "forecast_period_DA": 245.02722213074784, "recurring_pbt": 4695.79410788299, "tax": 1430.1414713648971, "noncontrolling_profit": 244.80101285264294, "recurring_parent_profit": 3020.8516236654496, "weighted_average_basic_shares": 20123477.98637502, "recurring_eps": 150.1157814623682, "known_H1_recurring_PBT": 0, "forecast_period_PBT": 4695.79410788299, "forecast_period_cash_tax": 1430.1414713648971, "noncash_seller_PV_unwind": 71.34412999999999, "bank_cash_interest": 258.534475, "lease_cash_interest": 7.96, "cash_finance_fee": 20, "cash_interest_income": 15.794, "nci_entity_cohorts": [ { "name": "AI ONE25%outside", "source_annual_outside_claim": 163.1823031496063, "outside_claim_before_purchase_annual": 223.28726616377946, "prepaid_timing_effect_on_annualized_outside_profit": -22.697001250000014, "put_covered_fraction_house": 1.0, "opening_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 0.1, "new_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 0.3, "closing_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 0.4, "remaining_aftertax_NCI_this_forecast_period": 167.4654496228346, "put_cash_purchase": 1606.0074154234924, "pending_put_house_cashpoint": 3212.0148308469848 }, { "name": "Roombox15%outside", "source_annual_outside_claim": 8.381819444444444, "outside_claim_before_purchase_annual": 13.421472203611106, "prepaid_timing_effect_on_annualized_outside_profit": 0, "put_covered_fraction_house": 1.0, "opening_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 0.1, "new_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 0.3, "closing_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 0.4, "remaining_aftertax_NCI_this_forecast_period": 10.06610415270833, "put_cash_purchase": 100.40410872626666, "pending_put_house_cashpoint": 200.8082174525333 }, { "name": "Other observed nonparent-profit cohort", "source_annual_outside_claim": 61.888899999999985, "outside_claim_before_purchase_annual": 76.87938180239999, "prepaid_timing_effect_on_annualized_outside_profit": 0, "put_covered_fraction_house": 0.5, "opening_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 0.1, "new_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 0.3, "closing_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 0.4, "remaining_aftertax_NCI_this_forecast_period": 67.2694590771, "put_cash_purchase": 269.8764767450141, "pending_put_house_cashpoint": 539.7529534900282 } ], "put_cash_paid": 1976.2880008947732, "earnout_cash_paid": 787.8948826197412, "fixed_AI_ONE_cash_variant": 250, "pending_put_house_cashpoint": 3952.5760017895464, "pending_earnout_house_cashpoint": 1050.526510159655, "customer_prepaid_revenue_earned_without_new_cash": 129.69714999999997, "customer_refunds_paid": 0, "remaining_contract_liability": 0.0, "working_capital_change": 566.179360141349, "forecast_period_business_cash_flow": 2886.1474785074915, "cash_capex": 152.67521043194967, "lease_principal_cash": 147.908, "source_tax_payable_cash_paid": 0, "opening_cash": 11718.998802184473, "ending_cash": 8973.0671867455, "opening_debt": 10341.378999999999, "mandatory_bank_principal_paid": 2317.313, "conditional_bank_refinancing": 0, "ending_debt": 8024.065999999999, "conditional_equity_cash_required": 0, "new_basic_shares": 0.0, "ending_basic_shares": 20123477.98637502, "unsettled_claim_and_customer_cash_reserve": 5003.1025119492015, "cash_after_claim_reserves": 3969.964674796299, "cash_without_refinance_or_equity": 8973.0671867455, "cash_reconciliation_error": 0.0, "funding_status": "observed_cash_funds_case", "elapsed_years_since_opening": 2.5, "opening_lease_debt": 318.4, "new_lease_liabilities_house": 147.908, "ending_lease_debt": 318.4, "opening_prepaid_delivery_embedded_in_nominal_anchor": 259.39430000000004, "prepaid_revenue_timing_difference": -129.69715000000008, "receivables_balance": 5123.383674604231, "payables_balance": 1281.5539617292095 }, { "label": "FY3", "period_end": "2029-12-31", "op": 5709.969280558064, "forecast_period_revenue": 28113.576045718375, "sales": 28113.576045718375, "forecast_period_variable_cash_cost": 14419.365417931882, "forecast_period_fixed_cash_cost": 7720.545962683333, "depreciation_amortization": 263.69538454509626, "forecast_period_DA": 263.69538454509626, "recurring_pbt": 5469.2319425580645, "tax": 1649.1604891674194, "noncontrolling_profit": 138.15460098709855, "recurring_parent_profit": 3681.9168524035463, "weighted_average_basic_shares": 20123477.98637502, "recurring_eps": 182.96622755253628, "known_H1_recurring_PBT": 0, "forecast_period_PBT": 5469.2319425580645, "forecast_period_cash_tax": 1649.1604891674194, "noncash_seller_PV_unwind": 27.969687999999998, "bank_cash_interest": 200.60164999999998, "lease_cash_interest": 7.96, "cash_finance_fee": 20, "cash_interest_income": 15.794, "nci_entity_cohorts": [ { "name": "AI ONE25%outside", "source_annual_outside_claim": 163.1823031496063, "outside_claim_before_purchase_annual": 270.5826941551574, "prepaid_timing_effect_on_annualized_outside_profit": 0.0, "put_covered_fraction_house": 1.0, "opening_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 0.4, "new_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 0.6, "closing_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 1, "remaining_aftertax_NCI_this_forecast_period": 81.17480824654723, "put_cash_purchase": 4165.554193335193, "pending_put_house_cashpoint": 0.0 }, { "name": "Roombox15%outside", "source_annual_outside_claim": 8.381819444444444, "outside_claim_before_purchase_annual": 15.032048868044441, "prepaid_timing_effect_on_annualized_outside_profit": 0, "put_covered_fraction_house": 1.0, "opening_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 0.4, "new_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 0.6, "closing_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 1, "remaining_aftertax_NCI_this_forecast_period": 4.509614660413333, "put_cash_purchase": 235.9957495491715, "pending_put_house_cashpoint": 0.0 }, { "name": "Other observed nonparent-profit cohort", "source_annual_outside_claim": 61.888899999999985, "outside_claim_before_purchase_annual": 80.72335089251999, "prepaid_timing_effect_on_annualized_outside_profit": 0, "put_covered_fraction_house": 0.5, "opening_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 0.4, "new_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 0.6, "closing_bought_fraction_of_covered_pool": 1, "remaining_aftertax_NCI_this_forecast_period": 52.47017808013799, "put_cash_purchase": 585.1696901761247, "pending_put_house_cashpoint": 0.0 } ], "put_cash_paid": 4986.719633060489, "earnout_cash_paid": 1324.4364377076472, "fixed_AI_ONE_cash_variant": 250, "pending_put_house_cashpoint": 0.0, "pending_earnout_house_cashpoint": 0.0, "customer_prepaid_revenue_earned_without_new_cash": 0.0, "customer_refunds_paid": 0, "remaining_contract_liability": 0.0, "working_capital_change": 395.4389386491482, "forecast_period_business_cash_flow": 3716.2975872865927, "cash_capex": 146.42608888283772, "lease_principal_cash": 147.908, "source_tax_payable_cash_paid": 0, "opening_cash": 8973.0671867455, "ending_cash": 4386.962614381118, "opening_debt": 8024.065999999999, "mandatory_bank_principal_paid": 1446.912, "conditional_bank_refinancing": 0, "ending_debt": 6577.153999999999, "conditional_equity_cash_required": 0, "new_basic_shares": 0.0, "ending_basic_shares": 20123477.98637502, "unsettled_claim_and_customer_cash_reserve": 0.0, "cash_after_claim_reserves": 4386.962614381118, "cash_without_refinance_or_equity": 4386.962614381118, "cash_reconciliation_error": 0.0, "funding_status": "observed_cash_funds_case", "elapsed_years_since_opening": 3.5, "opening_lease_debt": 318.4, "new_lease_liabilities_house": 147.908, "ending_lease_debt": 318.4, "opening_prepaid_delivery_embedded_in_nominal_anchor": 0.0, "prepaid_revenue_timing_difference": 0.0, "receivables_balance": 5641.22228944737, "payables_balance": 1403.9536379232004 } ] } }, "sensitivities": [ { "name": "No putexercise; currentownership and pendingclaimreserve retained", "FY3_eps": 133.27734518528774, "delta_eps": -20.328559238248488, "minimum_cash_after_claim_reserves": 1551.6490443540197, "maximum_conditional_refinance": 2781.6062112295203, "total_conditional_equity": 0, "ending_basic_shares": 12278769.0 }, { "name": "750mfixedAI_ONEconsideration already included in another reserved claim pool", "FY3_eps": 154.48898636293083, "delta_eps": 0.8830819393946001, "minimum_cash_after_claim_reserves": 1551.6490443540197, "maximum_conditional_refinance": 2781.6062112295203, "total_conditional_equity": 0, "ending_basic_shares": 12278769.0 }, { "name": "Seller cashpoints doubled; no contractualcap asserted", "FY3_eps": 101.3792021179419, "delta_eps": -52.22670230559433, "minimum_cash_after_claim_reserves": 1551.649044354037, "maximum_conditional_refinance": 3143.726, "total_conditional_equity": 5418.464653892344, "ending_basic_shares": 18419368.109125506 }, { "name": "Customerrefund50%instead of delivery; costpool unchanged", "FY3_eps": 139.69548222260354, "delta_eps": -13.910422200932686, "minimum_cash_after_claim_reserves": 1632.5485845690296, "maximum_conditional_refinance": 3143.726, "total_conditional_equity": 1262.287978069326, "ending_basic_shares": 13709285.747585364 }, { "name": "Operatingactivity5ppslower", "FY3_eps": 45.03203426025234, "delta_eps": -108.57387016328389, "minimum_cash_after_claim_reserves": 1478.4580516958113, "maximum_conditional_refinance": 3143.726, "total_conditional_equity": 21.06056570437977, "ending_basic_shares": 12302636.368205326 }, { "name": "Seller cashpoints doubled plus equity issue discount50%", "FY3_eps": 84.48081148835513, "delta_eps": -69.1250929351811, "minimum_cash_after_claim_reserves": 1551.649044354037, "maximum_conditional_refinance": 3143.726, "total_conditional_equity": 5418.464653892344, "ending_basic_shares": 22103727.57460081 }, { "name": "No bank rollover; discounted equity is conditional funding alternative", "FY3_eps": 100.2308362772648, "delta_eps": -53.37506814627143, "minimum_cash_after_claim_reserves": 1551.6490443540397, "maximum_conditional_refinance": 0.0, "total_conditional_equity": 6915.862645836411, "ending_basic_shares": 20116328.662099283 } ], "limitations": [ "Conditional rough screening estimate. Actual put-to-entity mapping, strike/earnings formula and exercise timing remain undisclosed; every allocation/timing/purchasefraction in this model is labelled HOUSE, not purported contractfact.", "Observed putPV3715.008m and contingentFV1419.910m are houseexpectedcash startingpoints, not contractualmaxima. SourceRoomboxextra price is uncapped. Seller cashpoints grow with the same underlying claim cohort; doubled-price and no-exercise variants retained.", "AI_ONE75%/Roombox85% and post-acquisition actualNI provide entity-specific minorityanchors. Partialperiod annualization is a weak proxy with broadgrowthcases; residualNCI is a separately observed profit cohort, not a percentage of grouprevenue.", "Scope-adjusted revenue uses elapsedperiod annualization of actualacquiredsales. CoreOP1214.861m strips noncashotherincome/impairment while retaining144.609mresidualexpense. Unknown sellerrevaluation gains, compensationreceivable recoveries, newM&A and companyguidance never supply earnings/cash.", "Customer advances of 2593.943m are liabilities. A HOUSE reference schedule embeds 50%/40%/10% of the opening balance in nominal service activity; delivery timing changes revenue against that reference, refunds consume cash, and paid delivery costs remain in the operating pool. No new advance receipts are assumed. The timing difference is assigned to the AI ONE profit cohort as a HOUSE proxy, including negative minority profit where applicable. Remaining obligations stay reserved.", "750mremainingAI_ONEfixedpriceclassification is unresolved. Base conservatively treats it as an extracashcohort throughNov2029; alternateincludedvariant removes that cash only, rather than claiming both interpretations true.", "Refinancing and equityissuance are conditional, not committed. Debtinterest and discounted basicshare dilution propagate. Sourcecurrent maturities are accelerated into the first forecast half for prudence; laterladder is a house schedule informed by prior annual maturitynotes, not certified current loan dates.", "Seller PV unwind is excluded from cash flow until settlement and conservatively nondeductible for tax. Continuing lease renewals are HOUSE additions equal to principal paid, preserving the observed lease-debt stock; cash principal stays in funding and ROU depreciation uses that named proxy.", "This is a conditional research estimate with broad assumptions, not a precise forecast of transaction terms. It was prepared on 4 November 2026 and is separate from the 27 October article's guidance-based valuation." ] }