6532 BayCurrent

BayCurrent sells consulting to large Japanese companies running AI and digital projects. Projects grew 21% last year. The open question: will AI itself shrink the hours clients pay for?

▲ Revenue per consultant came in about 4% above plan. So far, clients adopting AI create new projects faster than AI removes work.  ▼ BayCurrent bills for time. If AI cuts the research and drafting hours inside each project, revenue per consultant stalls before any published number warns you.

Consultants work as one pool rather than in fixed practice groups, and the firm keeps about 34 yen of each 100 yen of sales. But its advantage is its people, and people can leave.

▲ The brand commands premium fees, hiring beat plan, and about 710 new graduates join in April toward a 7,000-consultant goal.  ▼ Reaching 7,000 consultants means adding about 1,400 in one year from a talent pool every rival fights over. The firm discloses no attrition rate.

Since April 2025 the company caps its cash at 40% of forecast revenue and must return the excess. It then bought back ¥30bn of stock — ten times the prior year — and cancelled it.

▲ The cash ceiling already produced a record return, dividends have risen every year since 2021, and the rule is written down.  ▼ The ceiling is tied to revenue, which grows about 20% a year — so allowed cash grows too. Cash near 60% of equity can keep building inside the rule.

The business sells for 12.7 years of operating profit. Its capital earns 41.7%. Net cash is 7.4% of the market cap; 41.0% of profit goes out as dividends. Today's dividend yield is 2.2%. Even paying out all of its profit, the yield at today's price would be 5.4% — below the 6% floor, so the case rests on growth and the other squares. At the current payout, the cash pile alone equals today's market cap in about 28.9 years. How this valuation floor works →