Annual scenarios, assumptions, primary sources, sensitivities and reproducible calculations.
Integral 5842
Our conditional research model
Integral Group Corporation · Base case · Research cutoff: 5 November 2026 · Fiscal years end in December
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Management fees decline as older funds return capital, while costs rise. The base case assumes a successor fund begins contributing fees in 2029. Carried interest from completed exits can lift total EPS substantially, so we show it separately from recurring fee earnings.
The annual outlook
JII base-case estimates · ¥ billion, except EPS · All fiscal year ends: December 31
| Fiscal year | FY12/26E | FY12/27E | FY12/28E | FY12/29E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Management / support fee revenue | 7.71 | 7.06 | 6.68 | 8.69 |
| Fee operating profit¹ | 3.09 | 2.17 | 1.54 | 3.04 |
| Fee-only recurring basic EPS (¥)¹ | 56.71 | 42.55 | 29.64 | 60.12 |
| Recognized carried interest | 11.98 | 4.00 | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| Modeled total basic EPS (¥)² | 305.43 | 124.95 | 150.59 | 200.66 |
| Cash before unallocated disposal tax⁴ | 23.70 | 26.88 | 32.14 | 38.93 |
| Cash after full deferred-tax / GP-call stress⁴ | 9.98 | 14.11 | 20.32 | 24.73 |
| Closing borrowing | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| GP / principal investment calls³ | 1.95 | 1.95 | 1.95 | 3.62 |
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E = JII estimate. FY12/26 earnings combine actual H1 with estimated H2. ¹ Fee-only recurring EPS excludes carried interest, investment marks, principal dividends and cash interest while retaining funding costs and a minority claim. ² Modeled total EPS includes conditional carry realizations, investment returns, tax and minority claims; it is not company guidance. ³ Investment-call rows cover H2 only in 2026 and full years thereafter. Cash and borrowing are year-end balances. ⁴ Closing cash precedes unallocated tax settlement on opening embedded investment gains. The next row reserves the full ¥11.2bn opening deferred-tax balance and all remaining GP calls; closing cash is not wholly unencumbered.
FY12/29 fee-only recurring basic EPS is ¥60.12, versus ¥16.33 without the assumed successor fund. Modeled total basic EPS is ¥200.66; exit timing and investment marks can change that result materially. The full download retains bear/base/bull cases, diluted EPS, cash bridges and stresses.
The assumptions that matter
| Driver | Base-case assumption | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Existing fund fees | 1.95% annual fee proxy; Fund V external commitment base ¥245bn and RE Fund I ¥23.03bn. | Disclosed fund commitments and GP participation anchor fee bases. Harvesting-vintage fee base falls from ¥86bn at end-2026 to ¥26bn at end-2029; this run-off is a JII assumption. |
| Successor fund | ¥250bn commitments by end-2029; first close assumed during 2029, adding half-year average fee exposure. | Conditional JII fundraising assumption. The no-successor sensitivity retains fee pressure and the corresponding lower funding requirement. |
| Fee costs | 10% variable fee cost; fixed cash costs grow 7.12% annually, combining 4% staffing and 3% unit-cost assumptions. | H1 reported recurring expenses anchor the starting cost base. ¥100m annual asset capex and five-year depreciation proxy; recurring expenses are not set to a profit target. |
| Carried interest | Additional realization: ¥1bn in H2 2026, then ¥4bn / ¥6bn / ¥7bn in 2027–29. Incremental bonus: 6%. | Draws down the disclosed ¥22bn June-2026 unrealized pool. These are conditional exit assumptions, with no unobserved new carry accrual. Recognized carry is separate from fee-only recurring EPS. |
| Principal investments | Base fair-value return 0%; historical dividend flow carried forward. Annual direct principal calls ¥1bn. | Fair-value assets are retained at investment-entity scope. Investee sales and debt are not gross-consolidated. Mark-down and investment-call sensitivities remain in the download. |
| GP calls / cash | Existing uncalled GP proxy ¥3.47bn; Fund VI GP participation 2%, with 40% of new commitment called in its first year. | Explicit calls, capital returns, fees receivable and advances determine cash. A separate stress reserves all remaining GP calls and the full ¥11.2bn opening deferred-tax balance; tax settlement timing is unallocated. |
| Funding / distributions | ¥10.001bn temporary borrowing repaid in H2 2026; 2.5% debt rate, 0.4% cash yield, 2% dividend-on-equity proxy. | Cash starts from ¥35.794bn at June 2026. New funding is conditional if cash falls below ¥5bn; full remaining GP-call stress is retained. |
| Tax / claims / shares | 30.6% normalized tax; basic shares 34.067m and option increment 0.784m, before scenario dilution. | Minority profit uses the observed H1 claim and a bounded growth proxy. Basic / diluted EPS and fee-only / total earnings are exposed separately. No buyback is assumed. |
Sources and calculation basis
H1 FY12/26 results; H1 FY12/26 presentation; H1 statutory report (EDINET S100YW4X); Oliver partial IPO exit disclosure; Group transition completed, October 2026; FY12/25 issuer annual results.
Latest financial anchors are dated June 30, 2026. Fee-AUM, management fees and expense facts support the operating forecast; carried interest and principal investments have separate earnings and cash schedules. FY12/26 cash-flow fields in the full model cover H2 only. The download identifies the actuals, JII assumptions, source passages and old-to-new reconciliation.
Principal uncertainty: no successor fund has been announced in the verified sources. Its size and timing, harvesting-fund fee run-off and investment capital returns are JII assumptions. Carry timing is low confidence; realization is bounded by the disclosed June pool, with a separate compensation assumption. The fee-only definition is a house normalization; investment-entity accounting and minority claims remain explicit.
This separately dated model preserves the original October article as a historical research narrative. Its revised earnings are not a refreshed estimate of the article’s illustrative valuation.
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