All scenarios, assumptions, sources, revision bridges and reproducible calculations.
Kamakura Shinsho 6184
Our forecast model
Base case · Research cutoff: 4 November 2026 · Fiscal years end in January
Read the accompanying article ↗
Updated 4 November 2026. Seven researched business lines retained; costs rebuilt from reported expenses, with linked software depreciation and separate minority claims. FY1/30 basic EPS is now ¥46.72 (previously ¥46.91); estimated fair value ¥723 (previously ¥726), using the same valuation assumptions. Revision bridge.
The annual outlook
JII estimates · ¥ billion, except EPS and margins
| Fiscal year | FY1/27E | FY1/28E | FY1/29E | FY1/30E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.56 | 10.96 | 12.41 | 13.87 |
| EBIT | 1.63 | 2.01 | 2.42 | 2.82 |
| EBIT margin (%) | 17.0 | 18.4 | 19.5 | 20.3 |
| Basic EPS (¥) | 26.54 | 33.18 | 40.04 | 46.72 |
| Cash capex | 0.60 | 0.65 | 0.70 | 0.75 |
| Operating cash flow¹ | 1.29 | 1.86 | 2.28 | 2.69 |
| Operating free cash flow¹ | 0.65 | 1.18 | 1.54 | 1.91 |
| Closing cash / equivalents | 4.05 | 4.39 | 5.09 | 6.17 |
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E = JII estimate. FY1/27 combines actual H1 with forecast H2. Basic EPS retains known actual H1 items; future exceptional gains are zero. The download separately shows the recurring-EPS bridge. Management guidance does not drive the forecast.
¹ Full fiscal-year cash flows. FY1/27 CFO = reported H1 ¥0.473bn + forecast H2 ¥0.814bn. Operating FCF = CFO less PPE/software cash capex and long-term prepaid investment. The cash-ledger CSV separately labels its first period as H2.
The assumptions that matter
| Driver | Base-case assumption | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Graves / funerals | H2 FY1/27 growth 10% / 18%; later grave growth 9%→7%, funerals 16%→12%. | H1 sales grew 11.3%/20.8%. Fading growth preserves the mature network’s economics. H1 presentation, pp6,14–15. |
| Care / municipal services | H2 growth 35% / 28%; later care 30%→20%, municipal 23%→18%. | H1 growth 59.2%/34.1%, 543 municipal partners and 42.1% offline care-referral mix. Cross-use is inside these revenues. H1 presentation, pp17–18,23–24. |
| Inheritance / insurance / Other | H2 growth 8%/4%/0%; later inheritance 12%→10%, insurance 6%→5%, Other 5%. | Partial inheritance recovery, modest organic premiums and no assumed Other rebound or future acquisition. H1 presentation, pp6,16. |
| Advertising and people | Advertising follows noninsurance sales. Wages +3%; staffing response rises with care/municipal mix. | Reported H1 ads ¥897m / personnel ¥1,445m anchor costs. H2 staff costs retain at least two quarters at the latest ¥730m run-rate. Half-year report, p16; expense chart, p7. |
| Other costs | 2% inflation plus 0.60× incremental activity growth. | JII assumption above the recent observed response; favorable reserve releases and mix are not extended as permanent savings. Half-year P&L / cash flow, pp12–14. |
| Investment / depreciation | Cash capex ¥0.60/0.65/0.70/0.75bn; long-term prepaids ¥35m a year. | Software/PPE spending, existing ¥302m software CIP and asset lives drive depreciation. Capitalized platform investment is charged through depreciation. Half-year report, pp10,14. |
| Tax / minorities / shares | 31.5% future tax plus assumed nondeductible goodwill; 41.195m basic shares. | H1 actual minority profit is retained. Later minority claims use separate subsidiary earnings proxies, with a ¥0–60m sensitivity. Bell disclosure; House Boat accounts. |
| Capital returns / valuation | ¥20 annual dividends assumed; no new buyback. Full 1.7375m option overhang tested. | Future dividends are JII assumptions. Original illustrative 20x P/E and 10% discount retained: option-adjusted FY1/30 EPS ¥44.83 and estimated fair value ¥723. Option notice. |
Sources and calculation basis
Primary evidence: Kamakura’s FY1/26 annual securities report (23 April 2026), H1 FY1/27 report (11 September 2026), annual results presentation and H1 results presentation, plus subsidiary accounts linked above. The complete source index retains exact locators and archive hashes.
Revenue uses seven management business categories, with an explicit scope/rounding reconciliation; the company has one statutory segment. Advertising, staffing and other-cost responses are bounded JII financial proxies. Subsidiary fiscal dates and purchase accounting prevent a full reconciliation to reported H1 minority profit; the full model tests a positive annual nonparent claim of ¥60m. Cash is consolidated and not wholly distributable.
The original illustrative 18/20/22x P/E choices, 10% annual discount and ¥20 dividend assumptions are retained to isolate the forecast revision. They are JII choices, not newly measured peer multiples. At the 2 November 2026 close of ¥579, the base fair-value gap is 24.9% (fair value/price−1). The three-year horizon describes the valuation calculation. Option-adjusted EPS includes the full identified overhang and is not GAAP diluted EPS.
Numbers retain full precision in the download. The overview rounds billions to two decimals and EPS to two decimals. Future leases retain a comparable after-rent basis; the issuer’s FY1/29 accounting-transition effect is unquantified.
Assumptions and basis · Source index · Business forecasts (.csv) · Forecast cash ledger (.csv) · Valuation calculations