Takaoka Toko 6617

Our forecast model

Base case · Research cutoff: 3 November 2026 · Fiscal years end in March
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The annual outlook

JII estimates · ¥ billion, except EPS and margins

Fiscal year	FY3/27E	FY3/28E	FY3/29E	FY3/30E
Revenue	115.3	125.7	130.4	136.2
EBIT	10.0	10.8	10.3	10.4
EBIT margin (%)	8.6	8.6	7.9	7.7
Recurring EPS (¥)	395.08	435.48	418.51	427.14
Capital expenditure	6.5	7.5	7.0	6.5
Operating cash flow¹	5.9	5.7	8.9	10.8
Operating free cash flow¹	-0.6	-1.8	1.9	4.3
Closing cash / equivalents	17.5	20.0	18.2	19.4

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E = JII estimate. FY3/27E combines reported H1 results with an H2 forecast. Recurring EPS excludes identified one-off gains; management guidance is not used as a forecast input.

¹ Operating cash flow and free cash flow are full-year figures. FY3/27E CFO adds reported H1 cash flow of ¥2.175bn to the model’s H2 estimate of ¥3.699bn. Operating free cash flow = CFO less cash capex; property proceeds are separate. Cash equivalents include liquid current securities once.

The assumptions that matter

Driver	Base-case assumption	Basis
Power equipment	H2 FY3/27 orders ¥36bn; later nominal order growth 4.5% a year. Real workload capacity grows 6% in H2, then 4.5% annually.	Backlog supports delivery, but engineering, testing and acceptance constrain the pace. Capacity is a JII financial proxy, not disclosed physical units. Results supplement.
Metering	H2 orders ¥20bn; 65% of new H2 orders delivered. Later order growth slows to 3% / 2% / 1%.	A finite replacement cycle. SMAC’s 3.6m annual assembly capacity is not a shipment or revenue forecast. SMAC announcement.
Pricing and costs	Annual new-order price gains: Power 2.0%, Metering 1.5%. Input-cost inflation: 1.5% for both.	JII assumptions. Old contracts retain vintage prices; wages, fixed costs and depreciation are modeled separately. Annual securities report.
Capital spending	¥6.5bn / ¥7.5bn / ¥7.0bn / ¥6.5bn over FY3/27–30E, including Hasuda.	JII budgets and dated depreciation. Hasuda’s disclosed ¥1.61bn project begins operation in October 2027. Capital investment disclosures.
Property proceeds	¥8.188bn remaining cash receipt assumed in FY3/28E.	The June 2027 closing is expected; the final consideration is undisclosed. This receipt is a JII estimate and sits outside operating free cash flow. Disposal announcement.
Tax and EPS shares	31.5% prospective group tax rate; weighted shares 15.583m in FY3/27E and 15.400m thereafter.	The tax rate is a JII assumption. EPS uses annual weighted shares, not issued shares; signed minority claims are deducted before parent EPS. H1 financial results.
Dividends and buybacks	40% future payout assumption. No additional buyback included in the base forecast.	The article’s second ¥5bn repurchase is a separate, unannounced illustration. Trust-share dividend cash and EPS share counts differ. Capital allocation plan.

These are conditional forecasts. Product unit economics, whole-Power physical capacity and final property consideration are not disclosed. The model uses bounded financial proxies. The full download retains all 93 parameters, bear/base/bull cases, sensitivities and funding tests.

Sources and calculation basis

Reported figures and commitments come from Takaoka Toko’s H1 FY3/27 financial results (30 October 2026), FY3/26 annual securities report (25 June 2026) and medium-term plan and capital allocation (28 April 2026). The National Tax Agency’s defense-tax guidance informs the tax assessment; 31.5% remains JII’s group-rate assumption. Specific operating and disposal sources are linked beside the assumptions above.

Figures use the frozen 3 November refined independent model. Calculations retain full precision; this page rounds billions to one decimal and EPS to two decimals. Forecasts retain an after-rent economic basis; the quantified April 2027 lease-accounting impact is not disclosed.

Complete assumption register · Full source index · Segment forecasts (.csv) · Forecast-period cash ledger (.csv)

The cash-ledger download begins with H2 FY3/27 only, then full fiscal years; the annual table above uses the full-year derivation described in note 1. The complete ZIP includes the engine and a reproduction script that checks all frozen output records. Numerical inputs and outputs are unchanged.