Visional, Inc.
Visional operates BizReach for direct recruitment of experienced professionals and the HRMOS HR management SaaS business. HRMOS is profitable, but investors need to distinguish improvement in the underlying business from the consolidation of sonar ATS. Use of ¥70bn in cash is another major issue.
Company
Visional, Inc.
ビジョナル株式会社
Operates BizReach for recruiting experienced professionals and the HRMOS HR management SaaS business.
- Last Close
- ¥7,309
- May 12, 2026 · −40% from Aug-25 peak · +15% off Feb low
- Market Cap / enterprise value (EV)
- ¥293bn / ¥223bn EV
- net cash ¥70bn (24% of cap)
- EV / OP · forward
- 9.7x
- vs 3yr median ~13x · peer median ~12x
- ROCE · trailing
- ~35%
- FY07/22 27% → FY07/24 35% · 3yr avg 32%
- OP Margin · group
- 27% · grp 1H FY07/26 / 33% HR Tech
- segment OPM peer-leading
- Shares · Float
- 40.2M sh · 64% free float
- average daily turnover ¥2.3bn
What moved the share price over the past two years?
During the same period, TOPIX rose by by about +42%, while Visional's was -7%. This is a decline that is difficult to explain solely by movements in the market as a whole or in human resources-related stocks. We will clarify what investors are reevaluating and where there are still differences in their views.
A · April–August 2025 · +67% The rally reflected a changing assessment of the business rather than one earnings release. June 2025 Q3 FY7/25 results showed BizReach growing 18.8% YoY with a 43.7% OP margin before allocations, while HRMOS ARR reached ¥3.49bn (+32.8%) and losses continued as planned during investment. Strong profit in the existing business and expansion of the next growth engine encouraged investors to see multiple earnings sources rather than a single recruiting service. August’s ¥12,310 high represented about 14x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, above Visional’s established valuation range.
B · August 2025–February 2026 · −48% The decline did not follow a major earnings miss. September’s FY7/25 results were solid and FY7/26 guidance envisaged sales and profit growth. The issue was the visible investment burden: internal BizReach, Thinkings/sonar ATS integration and Incubation reinvestment were brought forward, leaving OP growing less than sales. December’s Q1 disclosure showed margin pressure when investors had expected expansion, and the multiple fell further. Investors could not distinguish HRMOS’s underlying improvement from sonar ATS consolidation. Rate-rise expectations also made domestic employers more cautious about hiring, renewing attention to BizReach’s cyclical exposure.
Company factors or market factors? The decline cannot be explained by the wider market alone. Over the same 24 months, Visional fell 7% while TOPIX rose 42%, a gap of about 49ppt. That is too large to attribute solely to the cycle or weakness in recruitment stocks. Investors reassessed what they would pay when the relationship between growth investment and capital efficiency remained unclear.
C · March 2026 · +16% from the low March 17’s Q2 FY7/26 results eased worst-case concerns. H1 sales were ¥46.6bn (+26.2%), the HR business OP margin was 33%, and HRMOS was profitable both in H1 and Q2. HRMOS series ARR was ¥8.96bn, up 181% under an expanded definition including sonar ATS; full-year guidance was unchanged. The shares recovered 15% from ¥6,347, but the multiple had not recovered. The gap between the recent ¥7,309 price and August 2025’s high was more about disclosure than earnings. Until investors can assess HRMOS’s underlying profitability separately from M&A consolidation, EV/EBIT around 8x is unlikely to return to about 14x.
Three questions dividing investor views
Based on's current stock price, company disclosure, and questions from the IR briefing, there are three points at issue. Is HRMOS growing even after excluding the effects of acquisitions? How long will the burden of growth investments continue? Will BizReach be able to grow even when the hiring market is weak?
Three points to pay attention to in IR and capital policy
Even if you don't wait for profits to increase, your evaluation can change if you disclose the necessary information and clarify your capital policy. There are three main things a visionary can do.
Scenarios for the next four quarters
We have three cases: bearish, neutral, and bullish for the next four quarters. These are not forecasts, but analytical ranges used to sort out how the stock price range will change depending on the combination of performance and disclosure.
- HRMOS organic business-based ARR growth rate for the third quarter excluding consolidation effects+12% or less compared to the same period last yearStay in.
- Due to the increased burden of incubation investment, the company plan for FY7/26 has changed.Consolidated operating profit margin 22% or lessrevised downward to
- BizReach's sales growth rate isLess than +10% YoY for 2 consecutive quartersbecomes.
- Capital policies such as share buybacks are not announced even at the end of the fourth quarter or full year.
- In the third quarter financial results,HRMOS's existing business ARR growth rate is +18-25% compared to the same period last yearIt is indicated as the degree.
- While continuing to make multiple growth investments, the consolidated operating profit margin for FY7/2624〜26%to land.
- By the full year,KPIs related to the introduction and production of the internal version of BizReachwill be disclosed for at least one quarter.
- The company's capital allocation policy for the full-year financial results refers to the level and use of net cash.
- HRMOS's existing business-based ARR growth rate is+25% or more compared to the same period last yeardisclosed in, and the coupling effects of sonar ATS are also separated.
- Consolidated operating profit margin for FY7/2626% or moreThe company's internal BizReach KPIs will also be disclosed.
- ¥10bn or more in 2 yearsstock buybacks or a shareholder return policy based on certain criteria.
- Even when domestic recruitment is weak, BizReach sales are increasing.+15% or more compared to the same period last yearmaintain.
This material is not investment advice.
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