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Compounders Portfolio · Four Key Squares

4058 Toyokumo

Portfolio weight 4.64% · ← back to the portfolio · how the squares work
DEMANDin our favorMOATcontestedCAPITALcontestedVALUATIONcontested

in our favor · contested · against us

No forced outcome yet — the game is still open. Whether the high margin is real and what happens to the cash both wait on numbers management has not yet published.
Watch: At the August 2026 half-year results, does the margin hold with ad spending resumed, and does a second buyback or product-level disclosure arrive?

Demand

Toyokumo sells software companies use to confirm employees are safe after disasters, plus tools that extend Cybozu's kintone platform. Revenue rose 54% in FY2025 and is forecast up 19%.

Japanese companies are effectively required to prepare for disasters, so the safety product sells itself. Paying customers rose 13% and each pays 10% more.   Much of the business depends on Cybozu's kintone platform, and the NotePM wiki product fights Notion and others in a crowded small-business market.

Moat

Toyokumo leads the safety-confirmation market and earns a 33% operating margin. One quarter hit 43% — but ad spending was down that quarter, so nobody knows yet if 43% is real.

Customers keep moving to bigger plans and paying more, and most of each extra yen of sales becomes profit.   Everything rides on one platform, kintone. Some of last year's advertising was spent defensively, and profit by product is not disclosed.

Capital allocation

Founder-CEO Yamamoto controls about half the shares. The company did its first buyback in 2026, has raised the dividend every year, and holds ¥4.4bn of cash against small needs.

The first buyback was finished faster than small companies usually manage, and the company spent ¥1.33bn buying NotePM — it can deploy cash.   The buyback was tiny — about 1.4% of the company. The stated policy is just 'as appropriate,' and one person makes every big decision.

Valuation

The business sells for 9.2 years of operating profit. Its capital earns 38.5%. Net cash is 17.8% of the market cap; 22.6% of profit goes out as dividends. Today's dividend yield is 1.4%. If the company paid out all of its profit, the yield at today's price would be 6.1% — past the 6% level where Japanese small caps tend to find buyers. Raising the payout 10 points a year would reach 6% in about 7.5 years. At the current payout, the cash pile alone equals today's market cap in about 17.4 years. How this valuation floor works →

Today's ranges · accumulate ¥1,820–¥1,970 · trim ¥2,271–¥3,546 · trend break ¥1,422–¥1,953 · close ¥1,953 (2026-06-10)

Next event that can change these squares: Q2 FY2026 results (H1) — To be announced
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