7378 ASIRO

ASIRO runs websites where lawyers pay monthly fees to be found by people with legal problems. After five years of 40%-plus growth, this year's forecast is just 5%.

▲ The newer ad-supported sites grew 31% last quarter, 1,204 law firms now pay, and management targets tripling revenue by 2030.  ▼ The number of paid lawyer listings is flat year over year, and the company dropped a profitable premium product — possibly a sign the niche is full.

The Bennavi sites cover eight legal specialties and collect fixed monthly fees from lawyers. Fees renew monthly, but Google search delivers the visitors for about 40% of revenue.

▲ 1,204 law firms pay recurring monthly fees, and the media business alone earned ¥2.0bn of operating profit in FY2025.  ▼ Listing growth has stalled, one Google algorithm change could hit 40% of revenue, and the insurance unit still loses money.

Activist fund AVI owns 35% — more than founder-CEO Nakayama's 27%. Since AVI arrived, the payout target rose from 30% to over 40%, the dividend went ¥42 to ¥65, and a buyback followed.

▲ AVI cannot quietly sell a 35% block of a thinly traded stock, so it will keep pushing for bigger payouts — or an eventual takeover.  ▼ A 35% block will someday be sold, which hangs over the price, and AVI's right to make formal proposals could turn into a public fight.

The business sells for 5.8 years of operating profit. Its capital earns 42.3%. Net cash is 14.7% of the market cap; 47.0% of profit goes out as dividends. Today's dividend yield is 4.5%. If the company paid out all of its profit, the yield at today's price would be 9.6% — past the 6% level where Japanese small caps tend to find buyers. Raising the payout 10 points a year would reach 6% in about 1.5 years. At the current payout, the cash pile alone equals today's market cap in about 16.7 years. How this valuation floor works →