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Compounders Portfolio · Four Key Squares

2477 Temairazu

Portfolio weight 6.85% · ← back to the portfolio · how the squares work
DEMANDin our favorMOATin our favorCAPITALin our favorVALUATIONin our favor

in our favor · contested · against us

The founder is returning cash, but buybacks will run out of freely traded shares to buy. The natural next step is a special dividend — that is where this is heading.
Watch: At the August 2026 results, does Temairazu announce a bigger payout rule or special dividend, or does net cash rise again?

Demand

Temairazu sells software that lets hotels update room prices and availability on many booking sites at once. Record foreign tourists and a hotel staff shortage keep hotels signing up.

About 75% of revenue is fixed monthly subscription, and the rest rises with every booking. Few customers cancel.   Japan has a limited number of hotels to sign. Nine-month profit grew slower than sales, and the company forecasts profit up only 1.9% this year.

Moat

Hotels run their daily room-selling through this software, and the company earns a 73% operating margin with about 41 employees. New tie-ups with pricing tools deepen the dependence.

If a hotel removes the software, its listings on every booking site break. That switching pain, not patents, is the wall.   SiteMinder competes worldwide. The company does not disclose how many hotels it serves, what they pay, or how many leave — outsiders cannot verify the lock-in.

Capital allocation

Founder Watanabe owns about 62% and is handing cash back: a ¥793mn buyback finished in May 2026, a new ¥300mn one started in June, and the dividend rose two years running.

Only about 24% of shares trade freely. Buybacks keep shrinking that pool, so at some point a special dividend becomes the only way to return cash.   The buybacks are small next to ¥6.4bn of net cash plus about ¥1bn earned each year. The pile still grows.

Valuation

The business sells for 4.5 years of operating profit. Its capital earns 23.8%. Net cash is 46.6% of the market cap; 21.3% of profit goes out as dividends. Today's dividend yield is 1.7%. If the company paid out all of its profit, the yield at today's price would be 8.1% — past the 6% level where Japanese small caps tend to find buyers. Raising the payout 10 points a year would reach 6% in about 5.3 years. At the current payout, the cash pile alone equals today's market cap in about 8.4 years. How this valuation floor works →

Today's ranges · accumulate ¥1,948–¥2,134 · trim ¥3,244–¥3,702 · trend break ¥2,282–¥2,637 · close ¥2,324 (2026-06-10)

Next event that can change these squares: FY2026 full-year results — To be announced
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